Multi -places have introduced foreign trade measures to contribute to economic growth or maintained a high level

Recently, measures have been introduced in many places to promote foreign trade and stability.

For example, Guangxi's "26" policies and measures continue to promote the steady growth of foreign trade and foreign capital, including giving 0.5 percentage points to foreign currency loans that meet qualified foreign -related trading enterprises; The route shifts are supported by key enterprises of new shipping and air transport routes. The Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce disclosed on September 9 that in order to minimize the impact of the epidemic and maintain the stable industrial chain, as of September 7, over 500 foreign trade enterprises in Sichuan Province achieved closed -loop production. Ningbo, Yiwu and other places in Zhejiang Province have opened a charter for foreign trade enterprises to grab orders or pick up foreign companies to purchase in China.

"Since the beginning of this year, my country's foreign trade risks have increased significantly, and the pressure on foreign trade has increased. In this regard, my country has introduced multiple rounds of foreign trade policies and supporting measures. With the joint efforts of all parties, my country's foreign trade has shown strong toughness. "Li Fei, assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, in the first eight months of this year, the total value of import and export import and export in my country was 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%year -on -year. Among them, exported 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%; imports were 1.182 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the decline in exports in August was mainly affected by the slowdown in external demand, the domestic supply chain was disturbed, and the high base number of the same period last year.

Obviously, exports may maintain a certain growth rate in September, which does not rule out the possibility of rebound from August. But from the second half of the year, the center of export growth may show a trend of progressive downward. There are three main reasons: first, the overall situation in China has improved, and the supply chain will be repaired; the second is that the European energy crisis may cause its production capacity to be restricted, and the export of my country can form an alternative effect; third, the high -based effect will continue the entire second half of the year. Essence

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that with the increase in export bases in the same period last year, and the influence of the overseas economic downlink situation on the export of our country, the export growth rate (with the US dollar) may drop slightly to about 5%in September. However, it is not ruled out that there is an excessive performance, which is mainly due to overseas stagflation environment, and there will be strong dependence on "Made in China"; in addition, since April, the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar has depreciated. Function; Finally, the recent stabilization of foreign trade policies has continued to make efforts to form a certain support effect on exports.

In terms of imports, Wang Qing believes that with the restoration of the domestic economy, the investment in investment and promoting consumption policies will be increased, and the improvement of domestic demand is expected to drive the edge of import demand to recover.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that it is expected that Morgan Chase Global Manufacturing PMI will continue to undergo downward and fall below the Glory Line in September. Two angles have a long -term export amount in September. In addition, in August and September 2021, the exports increased by 25.41%and 27.93%year -on -year in the month of the month, and the base was slightly upward in September export growth.

"Under the background of the follow -up economic weak recovery, the probability of imports has gradually increased; in terms of exports, in August, foreign trade still maintains a double -digit growth side. . "Li Chao, chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, said.

Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in the first half of this year, the net export of goods and services drove GDP to increased by 0.9 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 35.8%.

Wang Qing analyzed that in the first two months of the third quarter, the trade surplus continued to maintain a very high level, and the year -on -year growth rate further expanded. Combined with the forecast of foreign trade data in September, the streaming rate of economic growth in the third quarter will still reach about 0.7 percentage points. However, with the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter, the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth will be reduced to about 20%, which is still at a high level from history.

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