Daoda Investment Notes: Rotation still highlights or competes for a decisive time

Looking back at the week before the Mid -Autumn Festival holiday, the three major A -share indexes are a rebound market as a whole. However, in this rebound, the money -making effects presented in the market are not good, and the market size and rotation are still very prominent. Especially last Friday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index received the Zhongyang Line to drive the broader market, but only half of the stock rising stocks in the two cities. Except for new stocks, there were only more than 30 stocks, and even tickets were reduced to 6.

In this case, a brief summary is that emotions and indexes have deviated. The rebound of the market last week can be said to be the index of emotions. Can this in turn, can the index drive the warmth of emotions? Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topic of everyone's concern.

Dr. Niu: Hello, Dago. On Monday, the Asia -Pacific stock market was all red, but the FTSE A50 phase index accidentally dived. How do you look at this phenomenon? Please make an outlook on the market this week?

Daoda: To be honest, the FTS50 phase refers to the diving of this morning on Monday. It is really surprising. You must know that the financial data in China last Friday is super expected, and the rebound of US stocks overnight. The holidays have not been particularly big during the past few days. In this context, the A50 phase refers to diving, and the decline in the market once fell more than 1%, which seemed to be confusing.

Of course, overseas news can be explained. However, as of press time, the decline in the A50 phase has been retracted a lot. As long as the A -share opening of A -shares on Tuesday, this decline will not be further expanded, the impact on A shares is very limited.

On the last trading day before the festival, the market was stronger by the drive of heavy stocks, and it did not go into a weak way. This is a very good phenomenon, but behind it, it is only the performance of the heavy stocks. It is still shrinking, indicating that most investors are still watching. The performance of the prosperity track and the small and medium -sized disclaiming stocks are not good. In addition to the rising stocks of new stocks, there are only more than 30 stocks. Even the tickets are reduced to 6, and the short -term emotional heat is not high. Phenomenon.

So, can this index drive emotional recovery? It can only be said to be possible. The latest financial data is expected, indicating that the economic data in August may be better than expected, which will bring support to the index, but considering the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the market atmosphere is warm but not high.

As long as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index does not effectively break through the pressure of 3308 points above, it can only be qualitative to weakness, and it is also necessary to prevent the rebound and the rebound in the first half of August to form a symmetrical structure.

Originally, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index had built a symmetrical falling box in mid -to -late July. The market rebound in August also confirmed the pressure here. If the next rebound can't pass here, be more careful. The breakthrough is still not a breakthrough, and it may usher in a real decisive moment after the holiday.

In the short term, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rebounded last Friday. At present, the pressure is very close. This position is not a good entry point. In addition, from the perspective of a short cycle, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is facing the risk of small levels. If you can't put it up on Tuesday, there may be callbacks in the short term. It depends on whether the heavy stocks can continue to work.

If you are down, the low point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index last Thursday can be used as a defensive point. If the market adjustment does not destroy the 5 -minute box structure constructed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index last week, it can still be regarded as a strong structure in the short term, and there is still a dynamic energy.

In general, because the current situation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not clear, the pressure above is not far, and the position must be controlled. Find opportunities during the callback, try not to chase, it is easy to chase at high points.

Dr. Niu: Last Friday, real estate, medical care, and financial stocks were very active. In addition, the large net inflow of funds in the north, the probability was to buy these blue budget power stocks. How to look at these sectors to strengthen? Is the opportunity big?

Daida: Weighing stocks can see the Shanghai Fifth Index and the CSI 300 Index. In the case of the market shrinkage last Friday, these two indexes have been measured. In addition, they are relatively low. The signs of the bottom may still have a rebound; as for whether it is a large bottom, Dago is not yet determined. It can only be said that the location is relatively low, there is no big risk, you can try the opportunity.

In comparison, the science and technology 50 index is not very good, the bottom shape is not out, and the multiple moving average above is pressed, and there is no upward space. From a technical point of view, in the main index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the Shanghai Index have a better chance to come out. Judging from the flow of funds in the north last Friday, nearly 15 billion yuan of funds bought low blue chips. A few days ago, 5 consecutive trading days were out of trading, and all the day returned.

On the other hand, the routine track and the CSI 1000 index, the transaction volume obviously has a trend of continuous atrophy. To a certain extent, the amount reflects attention. While shrinking, it is still possible to explain some problems. In the background of the structural market, it is necessary to increase attention to the low blue chip. If you do n’t buy the right variety, it is likely to be trapped in the situation where you earn an index without making money or even losing money. In particular, you should pay attention to the conversion of the disk style.

Of course, for this phenomenon or expectation of this size, Da Ge can only look at the short -term. As for the follow -up situation, you need to observe it. After all, switching has never been done overnight.

Last Friday, the real estate sector strengthened, and the industrial chain, including building materials, home, home appliances, and other industrial chains. It was also active. It was mainly issued by Zhengzhou City's "30 days to ensure the implementation of the city's comprehensive resumption of work." Essence The real estate sector index is pulled out of the yang line. At present, it is initially out of the trend. The rise in the medical service sector was mainly affected by the dental implants collection. Last Friday, the 10 -day moving average was on the high, and the short -term may still have upper energy. Because the upper moving average is arranged short, it will still take time to fix it. It only takes time to rebound instead of turbulent treatment. The rebound space first looks at the half -year line above.

Before, the port shipping, logistics, planting, forestry, securities and other sectors were mentioned more. The trend of port shipping was relatively independent. It has been prompted by opportunities. At present, a strong shock is built near the former high. Breakthroughs can wait for the opportunity to recover the confirmation; securities have recently belonged to a strong shock structure, and it was previously prompted to have a short -term opportunity, but the sector index was under the pressure of June 15 in the mid -term. The space was limited.

On the whole, there is no mainstream sector at present, and it is still a decentralized rotation stage. The effect of making money is not good. It is not a stage suitable for heavy warehouses.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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