After the holiday, it may usher in a decisive battle -Daida Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

The three -day holiday is over, and the market is about to usher in the transaction time. One week before the section, the three major A -share indexes were a rebound market as a whole. However, in this rebound, the money -making effects presented in the market were not good, and the market size and rotation were still very prominent. Especially last Friday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index received the Zhongyang Line to drive the broader market, but only half of the stock rising stocks in the two cities. Except for new stocks, there were only more than 30 stocks, and even tickets were reduced to 6.

In this case, a brief summary is that emotions and indexes have deviated. The rebound of the market last week can be said to be the index of emotions. Can this in turn, can the index drive the warmth of emotions? During the A -share market, the FTS50 phase refers to accidental diving, what impact would it affect A shares? What other important news affects the market? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, do n’t say politely, let ’s talk about the market. Today, the Asia -Pacific stock market was red, but the FTSE A50 phase index accidentally dived. How do you think of this phenomenon? According to the convention, please make a look at the market this week?

Daoda: To be honest, the FTS50 phase refers to the diving this morning really surprising. You must know that the domestic financial data in China was super expected last Friday, and the rebound of US stocks overnight. There are no particularly big empty vacations in the past few days. In this context, the A50 phase refers to diving, and the decline in the session exceeded 1%, which seemed to be confusing.

Of course, overseas news can be explained. However, as of press time, the decline in the A50 phase has been retracted a lot. At present, only 0.5%has fallen. As long as it continues to open the A -share opening tomorrow, the impact on A shares will be very limited, only the impact on A shares is very limited. Just the opening, you don't have to worry too much.

On the last trading day before the festival, the market was stronger by the drive of heavy stocks, and it did not go into a weak way. This is a very good phenomenon, but behind it, it is only the performance of the heavy stocks. It is still shrinking, indicating that most investors are still watching. The performance of the prosperity track and the small and medium -sized disclaiming stocks are not good. In addition to the rising stocks of new stocks, there are only more than 30 stocks. Even the tickets are reduced to 6, and the height of the short -term emotions is not high. Phenomenon.

So, can the index drive emotional recovery this time? It can only be said to be possible. The latest financial data is expected, indicating that the economic data in August may be better than expected, which will bring support to the index, but considering the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the market atmosphere is warm but not high.

At the level of trading, you still have to observe the market objectively. Remember Dago's prediction of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index on September 4? It should be said that the rebound of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in recent trading days is fully in line with expectations, but this does not change the weak pattern of the market.

As long as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index does not effectively break through the pressure of 3308 points above, it can only be qualitative to weakness, and it is also necessary to prevent the rebound and the rebound in the first half of August to form a symmetrical structure.

Originally, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index had built a symmetrical falling box in mid -to -late July. The market rebound in August also confirmed the pressure here. If the next rebound can't pass here, be more careful. The breakthrough is still not a breakthrough. After the Mid -Autumn Festival, it may usher in a real decisive moment.

In the short term, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rebounded last Friday. It is currently very close to the pressure. This position is not a good entry point. In addition, from the perspective of a short cycle, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is facing the risk of a small level departure. If the intensity is not allowed tomorrow, there may be callbacks in the short term. It depends on whether the weight can continue to work.

If you are down, the low point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index last Thursday can be used as a defensive point. If the market adjustment does not destroy the 5 -minute box structure constructed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index last week, it can still be regarded as a strong structure in the short term, and there is still a dynamic energy.

In general, because the current situation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not clear, the pressure above is not far, and the position has to be controlled. Find opportunities during the callback. Try not to chase it. It is easy to chase at high points.

Dr. Niu: Last Friday, real estate, medical care, and financial stocks were very active. In addition, the large net inflow of funds in the north, the probability was to buy these blue budget power stocks. How to look at these sectors to strengthen? Is the opportunity big?

Daida: Weighing stocks can see the Shanghai Fifth Index and the CSI 300 Index. In the case of the market shrinkage last Friday, these two indexes have a volume. In addition, their position is relatively low. The signs of the bottom may still have a rebound; as for whether it is a large bottom, Dago is not yet determined. It can only be said that the location is relatively low, there is no big risk, you can try the opportunity.

In comparison, the science and technology 50 index is not very good, the bottom shape is not out, and the multiple moving average above is pressed, and there is no upward space. From a technical point of view, in the main index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the Shanghai Index are more opportunities to come out. Judging from the flow of funds in the north last Friday, nearly 15 billion funds bought low blue chips. A few days ago, 5 consecutive trading days flowed out, and all the day returned. It was a signs of positioning.

On the other hand, the routine track and the CSI 1000 index, the transaction volume obviously has a trend of continuous atrophy. To a certain extent, the amount reflects attention. While shrinking, while volume, it can still explain some problems. In the background of the structural market, it is necessary to increase attention to the low blue chip. If you do n’t buy the right variety, it is likely to be trapped in the situation where you earn an index without making money or even losing money. In particular, you should pay attention to the conversion of the disk style. Of course, for this phenomenon or expectation of this size, Da Ge can only look at the short term. As for the follow -up situation, you need to observe. After all, switching has never been done overnight. The market had been switched several times before, and it did not succeed, but if it was unsuccessful, I would not pay attention. This would miss the opportunity to make money.

Last Friday, the real estate sector strengthened, and the industrial chain, including building materials, home, home appliances, and other industrial chains. It was also active. It was mainly issued by Zhengzhou City's "30 days to ensure the implementation of the city's comprehensive resumption of work." Essence The real estate sector index is pulled out of the yang line. At present, it is initially out of the trend.

The rise in the medical service sector was mainly affected by the dental implants collection. Last Friday, the 10 -day moving average was on the high, and the short -term may still have upper energy. Because the upper moving average is arranged short, it will still take time to fix it. It only takes time to rebound instead of turbulent treatment. The rebound space first looks at the half -year line above.

In the premise, there are many sections such as port shipping, logistics, planting, forestry, and securities. The trend of port shipping is relatively independent. It has been prompted by opportunities. At present, a strong shock is built near the former high. Breakthroughs can wait for the opportunity to recover the confirmation; securities have recently belonged to a strong shock structure, and it was previously prompted for short -term opportunities.

On the whole, there is no mainstream sector at present. It is still a stage of dispersing rotation. The effect of making money is not good. It is not a stage suitable for heavy positions.

Dr. Niu: On the news, the SCO Summit will be officially held on September 15-16. The US's upcoming CPI data and the opportunity to help expand the biological manufacturing may be signed. What should I think of these messages?

Daoda: The Shang Summit will be officially held on September 15-16, of which the biggest expectation is the 25-year-old Zhongjiwu Railway. The Zhongjiwu Railway is of great significance. Once it is completed, our products will open up the market in the Middle East and the Eastern European continent.

In the A -share market, affected by this news last week, the leader has taken the lead in making money to make money. With the gradual advancement of the China -Jiwu Railway project, logistics companies, which play a role in interconnected links in the “Belt and Road”, are expected to benefit first. Due to the height of the cross -stars and markets of the logistics sector index, be careful of the risk of short -term differentiation.

On Tuesday evening, Beijing time, the United States will publish CPI data, which is one of the important data that affects the Fed's interest rate hike. As long as it is not too much expected, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike is still 75 basis points. For this, the market has actually reacted. In the past month, the US dollar index has risen from 104.63 to close to 110.8, and recently opened a high drop and dropped to 108.6.

The US dollar index has a strong relationship with the global stock market. Recently, the US dollar index has fallen high and the peripheral stock market has also rebounded. Therefore It's right.

According to reports, after the "Chip Act", US President Biden is preparing to sign an administrative order to help expand the biological manufacturing industry in the United States.

Regardless of the signing of the administrative order, the market should not be surprised by this matter. A few months ago, the CRO leader plummeted because of similar rumors. As far as news is concerned, it may have an emotional impact on biopharmaceuticals and biomedical sectors.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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