"Express Mao" aura is lost, and it is difficult for SF's "Shunfeng"

Edit | Yu Bin

Produced | Chaoqi.com "Yu See Column"

As the leader of the express delivery industry, SF Express is famous for "fast", and the brand influence is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. In the highlights of SF Holdings in February 2021, its market value even exceeded 500 billion yuan, becoming a veritable "Express Mao".

However, the higher the climbing, the heavier the fall. Entering the inflection point at the dark moment, after 2 months, SF released the first quarter performance forecast of the year, and the forecast of net profit loss was 9-11 billion yuan. At that time, public opinion was uproar, and netizens fry the pan: "I can't believe it, SF will lose money!" Subsequently, its stock price fell rapidly and "falling down." The market value is only about 230 billion yuan so far, which can be described as cut.

After a lapse of half a year, SF Holdings, which has gone through roller coaster, looks like a peak circuit. According to its recently announced mid -term performance report, SF Holdings revenue was 130.64 billion yuan, an increase of 47.22%year -on -year.

However, this time SF did not make investors lose reason because of the skyrocketing performance data. According to statistics, as of the close of August 31 (the announcement of the announcement of SF Holding Financial Report), SF Holding's stock price fell 28.02%during the year. It can be seen that SF Holdings, which has turned from the trough to cross the mountain, seems to have lost the confidence in investors, which is quite a kind of "broken mirror".

Revenue profit has increased significantly, or "illusion"

According to financial report data, in the first half of 2022, the total volume of SF Express was 5.13 billion, which was the same as the same period in 2021. However, the operating income and net profit of the mother -in -law, and the net profit of the deduction of non -deductions increased by 47.2%, 231%, and 550%year -on -year, respectively.

It is understood that the total volume here does not include Kerry Logistics Express, nor does it include the company's international freight, agency and supply chain business volume. It is not difficult to understand. Perhaps the revenue and profits of SF Holdings have both increased significantly, which is related to the Kerry Logistics they acquired.

At the end of September 2021, SF Holdings issued an announcement that its wholly -owned subsidiary had completed the acquisition of 931 million shares of Kerry Logistics, and the acquisition of about 51.5%of the issue of the issued share capital of Jilili Logistics. The entire acquisition time is about 7 months, and SF has spent about 17.55 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to 14.6 billion yuan, and "enters the main" Kerry Logistics.

However, aside from the SF's sky -high acquisition case, SF Holdings's original express business may not be optimistic. This can be seen through the details disclosed by the annual interim.

Data show that SF Holdings' supply chain and international business revenue increased by 442.7%, and the supply chain and international business accounted for 35.8%. You know, this data is less than 10%in the same period of 2021.

Picture source: SF Holding Financial Report

Compared with the performance of the freight part of the same city, SF Holdings is still in a loss of losses. It is only the supply chain and the net profit space of the international branch. The reporting period increased by 2661.47%compared with the same period last year, and the increase was amazing. It's just a year -on -year narrowing.

Therefore, it has to be worried, and the financial data that looks gorgeous after the table can continue to support SF Holdings in the next financial report cycle, and once again hand over a dazzling transcript.

The roll in the industry has fallen into a price war, the gross profit margin is declining or the bureau is settled

In fact, the incomplete "healthy" revenue and profit composition have already been in the event when SF released the financial report of 2021 and 2022. At the end of March, the "Express Brother" SF Holdings released a full year of performance report in 2021. In the context of the increasing price war in the express delivery industry, SF Holdings is deeply trapped in the dilemma of "increasing income and reducing and reducing", and the annual net profit has shrunk by 70 %.

According to the financial report data, in 2021, SF Holdings achieved operating income of 207.2 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5%year -on -year, and the first time in the history of revenue exceeded the 200 billion yuan mark; the net profit attributable to the mother was 4.269 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 41.73%; The net profit of home was 1.834 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 70.09%. However, by 2022, SF Holdings's performance seems to have warmed.

According to SF Holdings's first quarter revenue of 62.984 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 47.78%; net profit was 1.022 billion yuan, an increase of 203.35%year -on -year, and the loss of 990 million yuan in the same period last year. The company stated that the main reason for the return of profit to normal is to actively adjust the product structure to reduce the amount of low gross product pieces; the business profitability improves, and the new business reduces losses year -on -year.

The magnificent rhetoric is difficult to cover up the difficulties of SF's development. It is understood that, in addition to the large mergers and acquisitions of "Kerry Logistics", SF also promoted the big logistics strategy in the first quarter of last year, increased the front investment, and vigorously carried out the automation construction of the transit field, including Express, Fengwang, and Fengwang, respectively. The network construction of the same city, the network of the warehouse network, and the integration of various stations and line planning, therefore, the investment is huge and the operating profits are under pressure.

Related data show that the company's construction in the first quarter of 2021 was spent, an increase of 1.079 billion yuan compared to the third quarter of 2020, an increase of 23.76%.

Therefore, aside from its strategic investment, the revenue and profits of SF Holdings in the first quarter were also in exchange for the acquisition of Kerry Logistics as a bargaining. You know, SF Holdings's most core express logistics business in the first quarter (mainly includes the company's timeliness express, economic express, express, cold transportation, medicine, and urban emergency delivery business segments). 38.558 billion yuan, an increase of only 2.68%year -on -year. In contrast, looking at the overall growth of SF's semi -annual year, it also shows that it has not got rid of the deadlock of "spending money to buy growth".

In addition, there is a problem in front of SF. It is SF, which has only been fighting for speed and price, and because of the deterioration of the external competitive environment, the degree of competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and the "price war" has to be added. Therefore, the gross profit margin is severely damaged and even declining.

SF's "big brother" has shaken, starting from some international logistics giants invading his hinterland. In 2019, J & T in Southeast Asia acquired Longbang Express, entered the domestic market, and changed its name to J & T very rabbit express delivery. In March of the following year, in order to seize the market, the Rabbit opened a price war. The rookie also quickly launched a counterattack to join in with its supply and scale advantages, and even claimed to "send a single loss and one order" to seize users by subsidies.

According to reports, early rabbits can be 1 ~ 1.5 yuan lower than the Tongda system in the early days. It is half cheaper than the Tongda Department of Tongda. Annual preparation. Under the industry's roll, SF's early launch of the high cost performance "special preferential specialization", as a bamboo basket hit water, found nothing, but obtained an unprecedented loss ending.

Although the malignant competition in the express delivery industry has gradually curbed in recent years, the price has risen, the courier industry has ushered in a restoration period, and the price has gradually rebounded. However, it also brings Matthew effects, and the incremental income and no profit of express companies occur.

Data show that the domestic logistics market size is nearly 167 trillion, including segments such as scratching, cold chain, comprehensive logistics, cross -border logistics and other segments, including zero -burden, cold chains, comprehensive logistics, and cross -border logistics, and the concentration is still low. Among the top 50 list of Chinese logistics companies in 2021, the total business revenue of the top 50 logistics companies on the list reached 1.36 trillion yuan, which is less than 10%of the entire logistics market, which also means The integration space still exists.

The same is true. Driven by the rapid development of the logistics industry and the driver of capital, Jingdong Logistics, Anneng Logistics, Manchu Group, and SF Fang Tuo, SF City City, etc. have been listed, all of which indicate that the industry has entered the big waves and sand, survival of the fittest, Finals.

Corresponding to the price war, the gross profit margin of SF Holdings is declining. In the past few years, Business Express has been a strong territory of SF Holdings. From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margin is 16%to 18%. In contrast, Yunda shares with e -commerce are the gross profit margin in the third quarter of 2021 Only 8.83%.

However, SF Holdings has been competing for the e -commerce market since 2021, and the gross profit margin has fallen from 16.35%in 2020 to 12.37%in the first quarter of 2022. Although SF official also explained that this is a strong demand for the sinking e -commerce market, which is due to the overall gross profit of the pricing strategy.

But aside from price factor, its pressure on transportation costs should not be underestimated. For example, rising oil prices lead to increased logistics costs, and also allowed SF Holdings to continue to undergo gross profit. You know, transportation costs are one of the main costs of the express delivery industry, and fuel costs are an important part of transportation costs.

Data show that in mid -June, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Commodity Exchange in July and the price of Brent crude oil futures in London, which was delivered in August, broke through $ 120 per barrel, and international oil prices had risen by more than 50%.

Moreover, in the era of changing global politics and economic environment, such changes may continue. The rise and fall of international oil prices is also directly related to the profitability of the express delivery giant SF Holdings.

SF City loses another 140 million, and the cost of labor is fatal

Although the business data of SF Holdings and the large -scale section of the Express Branch has recovered. However, as a third -party real -time delivery service platform, the real -time delivery service of the same city in the same city (including the city's distribution service and the last mile distribution service) has been highly hoped by SF Holdings, and it cannot be ignored in the revenue market. However, in recent issues of financial reports, performance is not optimistic.

From the perspective of the proportion of revenue, SF's same city is mainly to B business. It serves a city merchant. In the first half of the year, it contributed 2.93 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for nearly 50%of the real -time delivery service revenue in the same city. The distribution revenue for consumers to the same city was 770 million yuan, an increase of 50%year -on -year, and 17%of the real -time delivery service revenue in the same city. The revenue of the last -mile service was 1.53 billion yuan, an increase of 7%year -on -year.

However, even if multiple business sectors are added strongly, SF's same city has not handled beautiful transcripts. And the gross profit margin has been righteous year -on -year, and it is also due to the deliberate low cost of the same city in SF.

Data show that during the reporting period, the company's operating costs increased by 15%year -on -year, and the growth rate was lower than the same period of revenue. Compared with the first half of last year, the gross profit was reached from negatively, and it recorded 180 million yuan. Among them, the most important sales and marketing expenses of the company's business are also in a state of strict cost control. This part of the expenditure is only 92.55 million yuan, an increase of only 1%year -on -year.

The main reason for the increase is mainly due to business growth to expand the use of information technology platforms and customer call service fees. At the same time, on behalf of the R & D expenditure of the scientific and technological strength of a corporate corporate, SF is also consuming in the same city. Data show that the reporting investment period is only 36.33 million yuan, a decrease of 31%year -on -year. Even administrative expenses decreased by 8%year -on -year. According to statistics, from 2018 to 2021, SF City has been in a state of losses, and the loss has expanded year by year, with a cumulative loss of 2.46 billion yuan. According to analysis, although the cost control in the first half of 2022, the losses of SF City have improved, but in the distribution services that rely on riding a contract, the cost is still a flaw for this part of the business.

The financial report shows that the cost of labor outsourcing is still the main expenditure of the same city of SF. In the first half of the year, the cost was as high as 4.25 billion yuan, accounting for 98.8%of the revenue costs, accounting for 94.8%of the total revenue. This shows that its cost is high, and it is even almost incompetent.

The predecessor of the same city of SF is the business department of SF Holdings, and then stripped off to achieve independent listing. The financial report disclosed that SF Holding Auxiliary Corporation contributed 1.54 billion yuan to SF City during the reporting period, and its revenue accounted for 35%. The status in the SF Holdings market should not be underestimated. However, in the short term, SF City still has not got rid of the haze of losses. Whether it can be reversed in the future still has variables.

Conclusion

As a leading enterprise in the domestic logistics and express delivery industry, SF Holdings's status and influence in the express industry in the past can be described as second to none. However, with the increasing development of the logistics industry, the industry concentration is getting higher and higher, and the Matthew effect is getting more and more obvious, and more and more players in the same echelon. Therefore, it is difficult for SF Holdings to have a unique and high pillow as in the past.

No matter how SF develops in the future, it is foreseeable that the golden age of SF has gone. And the halo of its "express Mao" will be more dazzling because of the unwillingness of SF Holdings, or it will dispel the light with the industry's fierce competition. We wait and see.

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