New Oriental's online stock price plummeted, and it was reduced by Tencent.

Radar finance produce | Li Yihui edited | Deep Sea

On June 20, the decline in the end of New Oriental's online line expanded to 32%, the minimum hit HK $ 16.82, and plunged 49.26%from the high point, which was almost cut.

On the same day, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed documents that Tencent Holdings sold 74.6 million shares of New Oriental Online from June 15 to June 16. After this round of reduction, Tencent Holdings' shareholding on New Oriental Online was reduced from 9.04%to 1.58%.

Before the plunge, New Oriental Online, due to the "East Selection" fire, the stock price once increased by more than 680%in nine trading days, becoming the most beautiful "Zai" in the market.

However, after the enthusiasm, the outside world found that the live broadcast of the East was weakened, and the growth rate of various items slowed down and the data decreased. Some media even said that the challenges of New Oriental had just begun because "Eastern Selection" was complained that peach mold was rotten.

In addition, the "Oriental Selection" with agricultural products is the main direction, entering the live broadcast track, or facing the chain of supply chain.

Regarding the soaring stock price of New Oriental Online, some institutions believe that valuation is too aggressive. China Merchants Securities Research Report shows that the current valuation of New Oriental Online requires a daily average GMV and 35 -fold price -earnings ratio of nearly 30 million yuan in the live broadcast and cargo business. This push hypothesis is too aggressive, so the rating is lowered to neutrality.

Oriental selection heat declines

"East selection is an unexpected phenomenon. In the future, it will cool down more or less, but this time it does give us an opportunity to make us better to choose the East." The popularity declined, and the founder of New Oriental Yu Minhong seemed to be mentally prepared.

Repeatedly found that the "East Selection" live room was full of accidents, and it took only more than a week to "out of the circle".

On June 9th, the short video of "East Selection" multiple "bilingual" attracted a lot of attention, and the live broadcast room also ushered in a big outbreak of the first audience.

Third -party data shows that starting from June 10, the number of online live rooms and GMVs in the "East Selection" live room have shown explosive growth. Fans of Douyin account have increased from less than 1 million to more than 7.91 million on June 15th. GMV also continued to accelerate, reaching 63.906 million yuan on June 15.

At around 14 pm on June 16, the number of fans in the live broadcast room of Douyin's "East Selection" exceeded 10 million.

According to YOUNG Finance, on the day of "618", the number of online viewers of "Eastern Selection" increased by only 5%, GMV was about 64.62 million, and even decreased by 3%from June 16th. The predicted grand occasion.

The GMV of "Eastern Selection" on June 19 dropped by 34%. At present, the latest number of fans in the live broadcast room is 17 million.

With the fluctuations of GMV, the average residence time of the "East Selection" live broadcast room also decreased significantly. According to the data of the cicada mother, the per capita stay of the live broadcast room of the "Eastern Selection" began to decline after June 15th, and the average stay in June 18 decreased by 15%. 18%.

Some views point out that the popularity of "East Selection" will inevitably fade to a certain extent, and aesthetic fatigue will definitely appear, but the trend of spiritual consumption is irreversible. Deep and lasting.

It is worth noting that at the same time as the "Oriental Selection" is out of the circle, Dong Yuhui, a former high school English teacher in New Oriental, has also become popular. During the live broadcast, while he hit his face "Terracotta Warriors", he explained the steak in English and wrote words and phrases on a small white board. Compared with the "simple and rude" induction of consumption of the previous head anchor, such a live broadcast style is called "making people like a spring breeze".

On the morning of June 20, People's Daily commented that in Dong Yuhui's live broadcast room, there was no stimulus and tension of adrenaline soaring, so that netizens transformed from running products to Ben Knowledge. Whether the anchor of "content" will become the "evergreen tree" of the future live broadcast and cargo, but to a certain extent, it has given a more abundant spiritual value of an anchor with a goods. The live broadcast of the live broadcast opened a new idea.

Yu Minhong announced in a live broadcast that recently awarded the special award of the chairman to the recently popular anchor Dong Yuhui. He said that New Oriental must not only admit to the anchor in interests, but also give them greater development platforms. Earlier, Yu Minhong had repeatedly praised Dong Yuhui and expressed his gratitude. He also promised to give Dong Yuhui a equity.

Talking about the future of the East's selection, Yu Minhong said: "The popularity of the East selection will slowly fall, and it will become a normal platform. On this normal platform, what to do is let it develop step by step."

Agricultural product with goods test supply chain

Public information shows that Oriental selection and operating main company was established in October 2021. The live broadcast room is positioned as a live broadcast and cargo platform. According to Yu Minhong, it is a good thing to do live broadcasts to bring goods to farmers to help farmers get rich.

Ni Mo (a pseudonym), vice president of a large short video KOL trading platform, believes that "compared to other categories, the current competition of agricultural products is relatively not so fierce."

Ni Mo said that the main customer group selected by the East is still mainly based on families with relatively high education level. The transaction volume has increased in recent times, indicating that its model has obtained a certain market recognition. However, it also pointed out that the gross profit margin in the field of fresh products in the field of agricultural products, high logistics pressure, and high loss rate. Once the freshness and feelings of this "teacher anchor" are now lost, the live broadcast room still needs to fight the quality, supply chain and traffic of the product room Operation, return to the same track as other agricultural live broadcast rooms.

More importantly, agricultural products are different from clothing, beauty, home appliances and other products, and have the characteristics of long production cycle, short shelf life, and high transportation costs. From production packaging to warehousing logistics to delivery, if one of the links is not managed, the product may have problems.

Feng Cuting, an analyst at Cinda Securities, also pointed out that although the oriental selection of live broadcasts is good, there are also hidden concerns. Supply chain management and selection are the test.

She believes that the current live broadcast e -commerce business has gradually penetrated the upper reaches of the supply chain to grasp the right to speak price as the industry trend. Agricultural products are non -standard products, and supply chain management is more difficult to manage than industrial products.

It turns out that the existing supply chain capacity of New Oriental is not perfect.

On June 20, the topic of "Eastern Selection was complained to Taozi Mildew and Rotten" appeared on Weibo hot search. According to Red Star News, Beijing citizen Xiao Liu (pseudonym) broke the news that on June 9, he placed a 4.5-5 catties ​​of Shaanxi Peach in the "Eastern Selection" live room. One is already mildew and long hair.

Although the merchant quickly refunded after reflecting the customer service, it still made Xiao Liu Xin's doubts. The damage of the peach was so serious. How did you "select"?

Similar problems also appeared before. For example, some consumers purchased the steamed buns sold in the "Eastern Selection" live room and found hair in the steamed buns. Although the "Oriental Selection" live room was quickly dealt with, saying that it could be refunded or replenished, it still left a bad impression for consumers.

It is reported that the "East Selection" has recently sold rice and corn, which use self -operated brands, while steak and other products choose to cooperate with agricultural product manufacturers. However, some cooperative merchants have revealed that the pressure of the "Oriental Selection" supply chain team should be relatively high. "Many larger teams are operated through the selection system, and they are still traditional artificial screening."

A few days ago, people familiar with the matter revealed that the selection of oriental selection is trying to build its own supply chain and will vigorously develop the "Oriental Selection" self -operated products in the future. The main purpose of considering the self -built supply chain is to ensure after -sales and product quality.

On June 19, Yu Minhong said in the live broadcast that "East Selection" must not be allowed to collect any pits. In his opinion, the charging pit fee will cause the merchant to abduct the platform upside down. In the end of the platform, in order to make money, whether the product is qualified, they will put them. It should be a good model.

In this regard, some netizens said that if they do not collect pits, they will collect commission or earn differences. Anyway, they must eventually make money.

New Oriental Online Rating is lowered

Although news related to "Eastern Selection" has recently occupied the hot search list, the stock price of New Oriental Online has weakened. And when the stock price is "returned to run", what kind of view of an institution as a major investor?

Radar Finance noticed that in the past three months, New Oriental Online, which has not covered by brokers in the past three months, has launched research reports since June 13, but the views have been serious.

In the latest research report, CITIC Construction Investment Analysts pointed out that New Oriental still has 20%of room for rise; Tianfeng Securities analysts pointed out that the increase in multiple businesses in New Oriental can increase the company's performance, but it has lowered its profit forecast for the company. From the initial 3 billion yuan to 650 million yuan.

Corresponding to the viewpoint of New Oriental's online transformation, there is no lack of "empty" sound in the market.

Among them, the recent representative is China Merchants Securities. On June 17, the institution released a research report that the current Eastern offline rating rated neutrality is that the current valuation is too aggressive. The research report believes that the current valuation of New Oriental Online requires a daily average GMV and 35 -fold price -earnings ratio of nearly 30 million yuan in the live broadcast business of nearly 30 million yuan.

CITIC Securities reminds that New Oriental Online has risen from the bottom due to the turning point in the short term of the new Oriental online, and there is a decline risk; the company's business turning point shows the time to prove the stability; The impact on short -term stock prices; the company needs to accumulate and verify in terms of supply chain management capabilities.

The rise of New Oriental's online stock price has also brought a cash -out carnival to many institutional investors.

According to CHOICE data, from June 9th to June 17th, foreign investment such as JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and other foreign investment have been reduced.

Among them, Morgan Stanley, who holds 72.52 million shares on June 9, has almost realized the clearance reduction in just a few days. According to the average daily transaction price, the two trading days have set up a total of 1.478 billion. Hong Kong dollar. In addition, Morgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of France, Bank of France, Deutsche Bank, Yingda Securities and other institutions have also reduced their holdings of more than 50%.

After June 20, according to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tencent Holdings sold 74.6 million shares of New Oriental Online on June 15-16, and the shareholding ratio after the reduction was reduced from 9.04%to 1.58%.

Among them, 35.61 million shares were sold on June 15, with an average price of 9.6168 Hong Kong dollars, and 38.99 million shares were sold on June 16, with an average price of 96,755 HK $ 96,755. This time Tencent cash out 342 million Hong Kong dollars and 377 million Hong Kong dollars, a total of HK $ 72 billion in Hong Kong dollars.Essence

After this "precise reduction", Tencent remains 15.81 million New Oriental Online, with a market value of HK $ 268 million.

Some market participants pointed out that the current New Oriental Online market has high attention, and the company needs to accumulate and verify in terms of supply chain management capabilities.Tencent reduces its holdings of New Oriental Online or is concerned about its future uncertainty.

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