In June, LPR was not allowed to be in the past or still reduced space.

Judging from the trend of LPR in the first half of 2022: In the first six months, the 1 -year LPR was reduced from 3.8%at the end of last year to 3.7%, and the following five months did not adjust; the LPR of more than 5 years was in January and 5 The monthly adjustment was adjusted once, respectively from 4.65%at the end of last year to 4.6%, and in May, the 15 basis points were greatly reduced to 4.45%.

Author: Hu Yanming

Figure: Tuwa Creative

On June 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on June 20, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.70%(last time 3.70%), 5 years of 5 years The above LPR is 4.45%(4.45%last time), which remains unchanged from last month.

Judging from the trend of LPR in the first half of 2022: In the first six months, the 1 -year LPR was reduced from 3.8%at the end of last year to 3.7%, and the following five months did not adjust; the LPR of more than 5 years was in January and 5 The monthly adjustment was adjusted once, respectively from 4.65%at the end of last year to 4.6%, and in May, the 15 basis points were greatly reduced to 4.45%.

From the perspective of market analysts, in June, LPR was not adjusted, and it was in line with market expectations. Previously, the interest rate of the interim borrowing convenience (MLF) operated by the central bank on June 15 remained unchanged. Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist in Jingshun Asia Pacific (except Japan), told reporters that although the interest rate of the mid-term borrowing (MLF) interest rate (MLF) interest rate on the 15th, there is still 5-10 basis downturn in LPR before the end of the year. Stable monetary policy is very reasonable.

Follow market expectations

LPR is a loan interest rate performed by the banks (18) participating in the quotation (a total of 18). It is also a reference interest rate for bank pricing for loans.

Since June, many banks have increased credit investment. Whether it is a public or retail business, the interest rate of high -quality customers has implemented an LPR standard, that is, a 1 -year loan of 3.7%. Recently, some customer manager of the shares stated that the annualized interest rate of the 1 -year personal credit loan can be executed by a minimum price of 3.7%, the maximum amount is 200,000, and the loan period is up to 3 years.

LPR quotation is formed on the basis of MLF interest rate. The MLF interest rate remained unchanged in June, which means that the foundation of LPR quotation in the month has not changed.

In addition, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that the reduction was not implemented in May, and the credit investment was significantly accelerated. Add some motivation.

Moreover, Wang Qing believes that the May 5 -year LPR quotation is reduced by 15 basis points, which is large, which will also be digested to a certain extent. The influence, therefore, LPR quotes in June are not in line with market expectations.

There is still room for low -reduction before the end of the year

At present, in the face of bloating, many economies are on the road to interest rate hikes. On June 15, local time in the United States, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, which was the largest raising since November 1994.

For China's future monetary policy direction, the market is expected to continue to launch monetary stimulus policies. In the case of the division of interest rates in China and the United States, the loose space geometry of domestic policies has always been a topic of market concern.

For the future direction of LPR offer, Wang Qing's judgment still has some room for adjustment. First of all, in the next few months, in the future, the Fed will continue to greatly tighten the prospect of monetary policy. While adhering to the "master of me" tone, domestic monetary policy will pay more attention to internal and external balance, and the possibility of MLF interest rates is less likely. However, considering that the possibility of continuing export growth in the second half of the year is greater, real estate will also run at a low level. In addition, domestic consumption restoration may be slow, and the policy surface needs to be moderate in the direction of steady growth.

As a result, Wang Qing's judgment of the next monetary policy operation will be to stabilize policy interest rates, focus on guiding the downward interest rate of loans, continuously reduce the cost of financing of the real economy, and consolidate the momentum of economic restoration; Back to warm. The LPR reform provides corresponding policy tools for the regulatory level. Specifically, while the MLF interest rate remains unchanged in the second half of the year, the regulatory level can drive down the funds cost of banks to promote LPR quotation to reduce, thereby reducing the loan interest rate of enterprises and residents.

Regarding why the People's Bank of China maintains a stable monetary policy, Zhao Yaoting further analyzed that because the Fed is currently raising interest rates, and this month or next month, there may be a relatively large interest rate hike, so the Bank of China closely pays attention to the Federal Reserve. The adjustment of policy interest rates is more to send a signal to banks and enterprises, hoping to inject more liquidity into the market, so there is still some space for loose policies in the future, but it may not happen in the near future. It may be slightly a little bit. Several months.

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