Stopping the "Banning Wildlife Transaction Announcement" to make Zhaoyan's new drug fall?Guojin Securities is expected to rise in the second half of the year

Due to the acquisition of the two experimental animal model companies to complete the "experimental monkey reserve", Zhaoyan New Pharmaceutical (SH603127, a stock price of 112.81 yuan, and a market value of 43.053 billion yuan) was regarded as a typical case of CXO (pharmaceutical outsourcing enterprise) to avoid the price risk of experiments.

However, as the relevant departments stopped implementing the announcement of the "Announcement on the Prohibition of Wildlife Transactions" on June 17, Zhaoyan New Pharmaceutical's stock price fell today (June 20).

On the afternoon of the 20th, an insider of a CRO company said in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the trading of this recovery was "certainly not related to the experimental monkey."

However, it is not necessary to ignore that there are more and more CXO companies that currently expand their business to the upstream supply chain. In the future, if you let go of the monkey imported, will the price of the experimental monkey fall sharply? Does the high premium rate of companies acquired upstream companies will turn into risks?

Picture source: Screenshot of the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration

At present, the imported monkey imports have not been released from Guojin Securities: 2022 is less likely to be imported

On January 26, 2020, in order to prevent the pneumonia epidemic in the new type of coronary virus infection and block the possible source of infection and communication, the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the State Forestry and Pragrants have decided. During the termination of the national epidemic, wild animal trading activities are prohibited.

At the same time, for consideration of epidemic prevention needs, the import and export of wild animals in my country, as the "International Trade Convention on Endangered Wild and Plant species" in Appendix II listed in the Appendix II. Widely used experimental animals in the clinical trials of innovative drugs -crab monkeys, also It was included.

This is also regarded by the industry as one of the factors of high -priced domestic monkeys in recent years.

According to the China Food and Drug Inspection Research Institute in recent years, the China Government Procurement Network's Experimental Crab Monkey Procurement Project Public Bidding Announcement, its bidding unit prices released in January 2021, 2022, and February 2022 were 30,000 yuan, respectively 30,000 yuan, respectively. , 70,500 yuan, 122,000 yuan and 132,500 yuan.

Therefore, when the General Administration of Market Supervision, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, and the State Forestry and Cao Bureau jointly issued an announcement, and decided to stop the implementation of the "Announcement on Ban Wild Animal Transactions" (No. 4, 2020) from the date of the announcement. The sound of opening the gate "spread in the market. Recently, the Zhao derivatives of the two experimental animal model companies have just been acquired, and the stock price has fallen on the 20th.

But this may be an oolong.

On the afternoon of June 20, an insider of a CRO company said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the three departments issued an announcement to stop implementing the "Announcement on Banning Wildlife Transactions", "Affirmation and experimental monkeys are There is no connection. "

The person said that the experimental monkey planting monkeys cannot be imported. When the import of imports in the future, the documents issued by the General Administration of Customs or other relevant departments shall prevail. The prediction of supply expansion and price decline "is lacking.

Guojin Securities also stated on June 20 that in 2020, non -human long -term experimental animals stopped import and export due to the new crown epidemic factors. In 2022, considering a variety of potentially virus and germs such as overseas new coronal virus, monkey B virus, monkey acne virus, etc. in 2022, the possibility of letting imports is less likely.

Even if the breeding monkeys are imported, it has no effect on the supply of domestic short -term commodity monkeys

When the price of experiments rose at a high price, Zhaoyan's new medicine was not the only CRO in the industry to expand its business to the upstream supply chain.

As early as November 2019, Yaoming Kangde (SH603259, the stock price was 97.90 yuan, and the market value of 289.394 billion yuan) subsidiaries acquired 100%of Suzhou Kanglu Biotechnology Co., Ltd., including its wholly -owned holding of its wholly -owned holding of 804 million yuan, Subsidies Guangdong Chunsheng Biotechnology Development Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Chunsheng Biological Research Co., Ltd. According to the research report released by Guojin Securities in January 2020, after the completion of this acquisition, Yao Ming Kant will become one of the largest companies in domestic crab and monkeys in China.

Last year, Kang Longcheng (SZ300759, a stock price of 88 yuan, and a market value of 104.814 billion yuan) has obtained 50.01%of Zhaoqing Chuangye Biotechnology Co., Ltd. at a price of 1106 million yuan and 206 million yuan. The Co., Ltd. (now renamed "Kang Ruitai (Zhanjiang) Biotechnology Co., Ltd.") 100%equity, and the supply of experimental animals was effectively guaranteed. As of December 31, 2021, the company's NHP (non -human long animal) deposited nearly 1 Thousands of.

It is worth noting that the above acquisitions are all premium acquisitions. This means that once the price of the experimental monkey declines, the cost advantage will become a goodwill on the shoulder of the acquisition company.

If you let the seedlings import in the future, will the supply of commercial monkeys burst overnight?

Guojin Securities gave a negative answer. Its research report pointed out that non -human long animals have a longer breeding cycle. At present, policies can only be imported monkeys and cannot be imported. Considering the problem of monkey cycle, the breeding F1 generation can only be released in 2026, so it has no effect on the supply of commercial monkeys.

The insider of the above CRO has a similar point of view.On June 10, he told reporters that the main reason for the imbalance of supply and demand for the domestic experimental monkey market is the rapid growth of demand.Specifically, in recent years, the state's increase in support for innovative drug research and development has made domestic innovative drug research and development projects, especially the number of biological innovation drug research and development projects, and the market's demand for experimental animals has increased.However, due to the long period of reproduction and the low output rate of experimental monkeys, animal experiments have certain requirements for the age of experimental monkeys (generally required to grow for 3 years to apply to experiments), so the growth of the market supply of the experimental monkey cannot erupt overnight.Daily Economic News

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