In August, CPI rose by 2.5% year -on -year PPI increases continued to fall

According to data on September 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August, the National Residents 'Consumer Price Index (CPI) and industrial producers' factory price index (PPI) increased slightly year -on -year. Among them, CPI rose by 2.5%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July; PPI rose 2.3%year -on -year, and the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from July.

"Driven by factors such as the increase in the price of fresh vegetables and the decline in the price of refined oil, the year -on -year increase in CPI in August is lower than the market expectations. The current upward price of the pig cycle, and the CPI of food prices has increased greater. Non -food price increases continue to be low. "Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter.

Specifically, food prices rose 6.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July, which affected CPI by about 1.09 percentage points. In food, the price of pork rose 22.4%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from July, mainly due to the lower base of the same period last year.

As the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day holidays come, the demand is improved, and the price of pork has shown upward trend. However, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 9 that the overall judgment was that the supply of pigs and pork markets in the later period was guaranteed, and the price was expected to run in a reasonable range.

Among non -food, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose 3.0%year -on -year, and the increase of 0.5 percentage points from July, of which the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 20.2%, 21.9%, and 19.8%, respectively, and the increases fell.

In this regard, Wang Qing said that, driven by international crude oil prices continued to decline, the price of domestic refined oil products in August continued to reduce, which means that the price of commodities weakened to the CPI transmission and became one of the important factors to suppress CPI.

In terms of PPI, August rose 2.3%year -on -year, and the increase fell 1.9 percentage points from July. Among them, the price of production materials rose by 2.4%, affecting the increase of PPI by about 1.87 percentage points, which is the main driving force for PPI to rise; the price of living data rose by 1.6%, affecting the PPI rising by about 0.38 percentage points.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in addition to the impact of the comparison base of the same period last year, PPI's year -on -year increase was also affected by three factors: First, international crude oil, non -ferrous metals and other commodities fluctuated downward. The pressure of input price conduction has been reduced; second, the effect of increasing production and supply in the coal and other industries has continued to appear, and the market supply guarantee is strong; the third is affected by multiple factors, and the demand for steel and other industries is weak.

"Recently, as the ppi ppi rose rapidly, the" scissors difference "between production materials and living materials PPI have significantly converged, and the pressure on the cost of raw materials faced by middle and lower reaches is significantly relieved." Wang Qing believes that the current middle and lower reaches enterprises Operating pressure has shifted from the cost side to the demand side.

Looking forward to the future, Wang Qing believes that PPI will continue to fall year -on -year. On the one hand, the central banks of the world's major economies in the world can suppress high inflation through a sharp interest rate hike, bringing downward pressure on economic growth. The global economic recession is expected to be stronger, and the demand for commodities is expected. Force, the speedy of infrastructure investment will bring back power to domestic industrial products. However, considering that the short -term mainland investment in the short -term maintenance is obviously recovered, the superimposed insurance price policy continues to make efforts, and the price of industrial products is difficult to rise rapidly.

Combined with data, many people in the industry believe that the rise in prices is mild and controllable.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that from the perspective of price data, the current moderate rise in prices in China reflects that the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable and insufficient demand is still the main contradiction in the current economic operation. Economic market. On the one hand, continue to do a good job of guaranteeing the price of important commodities; on the other hand, accelerate the implementation of the real workload of investment projects and promote consumption with investment.

"In the context of the Fed's continuous interest rate hike and shrinkage, my country will continue to play a dual function and structural dual function of monetary policy tools, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing in the real economy." Wen Bin said.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Langlian Federation Greater China, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the CPI rising and controllable, the camera choice space of monetary policy tools, and the coordination space of monetary policies and fiscal policies and industrial policies More broadly.

"In order to further stabilize the price, the key is to combine the guarantee, stabilizing price, management expectations with comprehensive linkage, accurate regulation, scientific supervision, and long -term policy. Through more accurate and effective policy combinations With energy security, keep prices basically stable, alleviate the pressure of corporate costs, and ensure the demand for basic people's livelihood supply. "Pang Yan said.

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