In August, the demand for social financing and loans significantly rebounded why it showed "strong enterprise and weak residents"?

Economic Observation Network reporter Hu Yanming on September 9th, the People's Bank of China released August financial data: August social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan, 557.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; RMB loan in August increased by 1.25 trillion yuan , An increase of 39 billion yuan year -on -year.

This data is obviously better than July. In July, social financing increased by 756.1 billion yuan, and a new RMB loan was 679 billion yuan in July. Regarding the increase in the scale of new social integration in August, RMB loans have become the main promotion factor.

Under a series of policies such as interest rate cuts and stable credit, new RMB loans have improved significantly compared to July. However, from the perspective of the components that constitute the credit, the growth of loans in August still mainly depends on the pull of medium and long -term loans in the enterprise, and the demand for residential loans is weak.

Since the beginning of this year, monthly financial data has changed significantly. For the trend of financial data in September, some analysts believe that it will further recover; there are also opinions that the outbreak of the epidemic is still prominent, and there are still greater pressure on prevention and control. The uncertainty of the real economic credit demand still exists. In the future The continuity of recovery needs to be observed.

The new and long -term loans of new social finances and loans are expected to pull the main force of growth in the company's medium and long -term loans

In August 2022, the increase in social financing increased by 2.43 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectations of 2.03 trillion yuan, but it increased by 557.1 billion yuan compared with August last year.

RMB loans have become the main factor in promoting social integration. From the perspective of credit data, the new RMB loan was 1.25 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 571 billion yuan over July this year, an increase of 39 billion yuan compared to August last year.

Dongfang Jincheng's chief macro analyst Wang Qing said that the loan ring in August was significantly increased, which was in line with seasonal laws, but the increase in the year -on -year increase was related to further policy.

At the policy level, the policy interest rate and loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) in August decreased. On August 22, the one -year and 5 -year LPR was lowered. On the same day, the People's Bank of China held an analysis of some financial institutions' monetary credit situation to guide large state -owned banks to give full play to the role of leading and pillar, maintaining the stability of the total loan growth and optimizing the credit structure. On August 24th, the National Association deployed 19 continuation measures for the stability of the economy to support the fields of infrastructure and reasonable financing needs of real estate; on August 31, the National Conference further clarified that "the continuation policy rules should be out in early September." The implementation of policy development financial instruments previously launched, and 19 continuous policies for the National Assembly of the State Frequently issued a steady growth. Wang Qing believes that these policies have a certain effect on credit data.

From a structural point of view, the performance of loans in August and retail loans was differentiated, manifested as "strong enterprise and weak residents".

From the perspective of the corporate department, the company (affairs) industry units added a new loan of 875 billion yuan, an increase of 178.7 billion yuan compared to August last year, and accounted for about 70%of the new loans of 1.25 trillion yuan in the month.

Among the new loans of the enterprise, the medium- and long -term loans accounted for relatively high, and the medium- and long -term loans increased by 735.3 billion yuan, an increase of 213.8 billion yuan over August last year. Short -term loans decreased by 12.1 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 159.1 billion yuan. The proportion of bill financing declined significantly compared to the previous months.

Enterprises' willingness to demand for medium- and long -term credit has increased. In response, Wang Qing believes that the stronger and long -term loans of enterprises should be driven by the stable growth of infrastructure. Among them, the previously launched policy development financial instruments quickly landed in August, which played a strong role in boosting the demand for infrastructure supporting financing.

Resident consumption confidence has resumed mortgage demand still not strong

From the perspective of residents' data, in August, resident loans increased by 458 billion yuan. The data in July was only 121.7 billion. In August, it improved significantly, an increase of 336.3 billion yuan from July.

Among them, short -term loans increased by 192.2 billion yuan, from the decline in July to the growth; medium and long -term loans increased by 265.8 billion yuan, which was significantly rebounded compared to 148.6 billion in July.

Regarding the performance of residential loans in medium- and long -term and short -term loans, Wang Qing believes that short -term loans have recovered. The main reason may be sufficient for bank credit. The demand for personal loans has boosted. Residents' medium and long -term loans increased by 265.8 billion yuan, an increase of 160.1 billion yuan compared to August last year, but the decline was narrowed year -on -year.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that short -term loans have increased by 42.6 billion yuan, indicating that residents' willingness to consumption has increased. The increase of 160.1 billion yuan in medium- and long -term loans means that the real estate market is still weak, but it has recovered from July.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, calculated the proportion of corporate loans and retail loans: In August, residents' loans were increased by 458 billion yuan, and corporate loans were increased by 875 billion yuan. The proportion of loans was 34%and 66%, and the proportion of last month accounted for 30%and 70%, respectively, and August last year accounted for 45%and 55%, respectively.

Wen Bin believes that although the proportion of retail and public loans has been imbalanced since this year, the proportion of the two in August has been further improved.

Can the M2 growth rate continue to rise?

Another data worth noting is that the year -on -year growth rate of M2 M2 continued to rise in August, reaching 12.2%, which was 0.2 percentage points accelerated from last month, which hit a new high since May 2016. M2 has also become a "broad currency", which is composed of cash in the banking system plus a living deposit (M1), plus regular deposits and savings deposits. M2 includes everything that may become real purchasing power. Regular deposits, savings deposits, etc. cannot be realized, so it cannot be immediately transformed into a real purchasing power, but after a certain time and procedures, it can also be transformed into purchasing power. Therefore, M2 is also called "quasi -currency". The situation is of great significance.

Wang Qing believes that the large -scale retention tax refund continued to advance in August, and the tax refund funds directly reached the corporate account, which will directly increase corporate deposits and increase the growth rate of M2.

In Liang Si's view, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 continues to rise includes two reasons: First, the willingness to social savings is still strong. In August 2022, residents' deposits and corporate deposits increased significantly by 494.8 billion yuan and 394.3 billion yuan year -on -year. Second, the increase in fiscal expenditure to promote M2. In August, fiscal deposits increased by 429.6 billion yuan year -on -year. Due to the reverse relationship between fiscal deposits and M2, the significant decline in fiscal deposits means that fiscal expenditure is increasing, which has brought support for M2.

Regarding the next financial data performance, Wang Qing expects that under the effect of economic restoration and policy force, financial data will be further recovered in September. A logo.

Liang Si believes that, as a whole, although the epidemic situation is significantly alleviated compared to the first half of the year, the extension of the epidemic situation is still prominent, and there are still greater pressure on prevention and control. The uncertainty of the real economic credit demand still exists. The continuity of data recovery remains to be observed.

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