Important data is released!CPI has declined, and PPI continues to fall!The price of pork rose 22.4%, how big the impact?

In August, CPI (residential consumer price index) and PPI (industrial producer's factory price index) increased year -on -year. The analysis believes that CPI inflation is still mild and controllable, which can be more flexible for the camera choice space of monetary policy toolboxes as well as the space policy and monetary policy and fiscal policy, and industrial policy. After removing energy food, the core inflation performance is stable, showing that terminal demand is weak.

The year -on -year increase of CPI is lower than market expectations

Data show that from a year -on -year perspective, CPI rose 2.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month. This performance is slightly lower than market expectations.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, and senior researcher at the Minsheng Bank Research Institute should write a research report written by Xiwen that the year -on -year increase of CPI was lower than market expectations. Among them, food prices rose 0.5%month -on -month. Although the "pig vegetable eggs" formed a joint force, the three were lower than expected from the increase.

Minsheng Bank pointed out that after removing energy food, the core inflation performed smoothly. In August, the core CPI was flat, up 0.8%year -on -year, and the growth rate was the same as last month. It was below 1%for 2 consecutive months. It continued to be lower than the historical division of 10%, showing that the terminal demand remained weak.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Filver Greater China, said that the CPI inflation is still mild and controllable, and the camera choice space of the monetary policy toolbox, the coordination space of monetary policies and fiscal policies, and industrial policies. Can be more flexible. Inflation's consideration and choice of macro policies will not bring much pressure, but it should be paid attention to. This is because from a global perspective, the pressure of high inflation is still spreading and transmitting, and the Mainland still faces greater input -type inflation pressure. From an industry perspective, local inflation pressure in China is more likely to focus on the energy industry and related related related The excavation industry, food processing and breeding industries; from the perspective of emergencies and occasional factors, the superimposed by factors such as uncertainty, high temperature and drought weather, etc., may bring great disturbances to the production and supply of energy, food and food. Essence

The epidemic repeatedly drags consumer demand and travel

Core demand is still cold, and the epidemic is an important reason for disturbance demand. The data shows that from the month -on -month perspective, the service price rose from 0.3%last month to the flat, of which the prices of aircraft tickets and transportation costs decreased by 7.5%and 1.0%, respectively.

Minsheng Bank pointed out that from the perspective of durable consumer goods, the three major items of home appliances, communication tools, and transportation have declined at the same time, indicating that the long -term consumption expectations of residents have weakened and consumer confidence is insufficient.

According to Xinhua News Agency, there were 301 new cases of new coronary pneumonia on September 8, of which 259 local cases were added. Domestic in China advocate local holidays and reduce flow.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities Institute, believes that this will be expected to linger in the low position of the core CPI in September in September. In terms of CPI -related fuel -related fuel CPIs, in the context of the Fed and the European Central Bank, which is a significant interest rate hike, it is expected that international oil prices are expected to continue to pressure. The probability of decline from August.

The price of pork is CPI's upward support items year -on -year

In August, the price of pork rose 22.4%year -on -year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the rise in pork prices, the prices of chicken and duck meat rose 6.6%and 12.7%, respectively, and the increase was expanded compared to last month. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that the increase in the increase in pork prices was mainly due to the decline of the base of the same period last year.

From the previous month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the price of pork rose 0.4%, the increase of 25.2 percentage points from the previous month. Dong Lijuan said that this is related to the gradual return of the pig's outpatient column, and the seasonal weakening of consumer demand.

On September 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments put the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year, with a number of launch of 37,700 tons. Public information shows that the local pork reserves and release work have been launched in many places in Guangxi, Sichuan, etc., and other provinces are also having the preparation of pork reserves.

Regarding the price trend of pork in the later period, Deng Shaorui, a researcher at Huatai Futures Agricultural Products, believes that from the perspective of the rhythm of the large -scale field, the overall pressure of the market in September is still small. In terms of demand, as the weather turns cooler, the temperature decreases, the seasonal demand for pork consumption has risen seasonally. At the same time, the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, and the launch of the consumer demand for cafeterias such as schools. However, as the price of pigs rose to high, policy regulation began to intervene. In particular, the policy emphasized that the market supply was increased in September, alleviating the short -term supply gap, and seeing more enthusiasm or formation of the short -term market. It is expected that short -term pig prices are mainly high.

PPI's year -on -year increase continues to fall

In August, PPI rose 2.3%year -on -year, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; a decrease of 1.2%month -on -month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points narrower than the previous month.

Dong Lijuan said that in August, affected by various factors such as international crude oil, non -ferrous metals such as commodity price fluctuation transmission and the weak market demand in the domestic industry, the price trend of industrial products declined as a whole. The National PPI declined slightly from the previous month, and the year -on -year increase continued to fall.

Minsheng Bank believes that PPI's year -on -year and month -on -month decline exceeded expectations, mainly due to the reduction of input inflation pressure and the weak demand in some domestic industries. In August, the "recession trading" of the international commodity price turned weakened. Inflation is expected to exacerbate price fluctuations with the Federal Reserve Eagle, crude oil prices fluctuate horizontally, natural gas prices have risen, and metal prices rose first. Essence From the perspective of the overall performance of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the pressure on upstream upstream price increase has been basically transmitted to the downstream. As the inflation pressure of the external input type falls, the pressure on upstream and downstream price increases has inverted, and the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches has risen. The purchase price of industrial producers this month decreased by 1.4%month -on -month, and the decline was greater than PPI. However, the continuous uncertainty of whether this price increase in the industry is still in the industrial field still depends on the changes in the price of external and upstream energy and mineral products in the future.

Zheng Houcheng said that the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has not improved, continuing to impact the growth rate of residents 'income and reducing residents' viewing time. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will also be under pressure, and the price of black black is the price. Under the duality of the base effect and the tail -tailed factors, the prices of the sectarian commodity continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the PPI in September is expected to decline sharply on the basis of August in September, and the decline is not less than 1.90 percentage points.

Responsible editor: tactics

School pair: Zhao Yan

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