Division of consumer goods interim performance: Cost -side pressure markets are two major capabilities: price negotiation and premium premium

Economic Observation Network reporter Ye Xinran disclosed the finals in 2022. The company in the field of large consumption was generally affected by the rising end of the cost, and the epidemic was damaged under the impact of the epidemic. The impact is greater. According to Wind data, A-share listed companies involved in the six major industries in the consumer industry in the second quarter of 2022 revenue and net profit growth were -0.2%and -6.5%, respectively. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the performance of consumption reports is generally weak, and the income continues to slow down.

Pressure end pressure loose

In terms of cost -side and demand side, the pressure of rising raw material prices at the cost side is particularly obvious in the second quarter, which is mainly reflected in the aspects of oil, packaging materials, logistics and transportation. In the first and second quarters of the year, the year -on -year increased by 54%and 71%, and the important PET materials on the package materials also increased sharply.

But the situation has been loosened. Yin He, director of the consumer industry research in Greater China, pointed out that in February and March this year, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the market was very worried about global inflation. However, in fact, some raw materials in the domestic market have not experienced inflation, and the increase in some commodities is gradually narrowing, and even began to fall. For many manufacturing consumer goods companies, the pressure of subsequent raw materials will be weakened.

For example, Yin He pointed out that, for example, the price of aluminum tanks of beer has increased by 37%year -on -year in the first quarter and a 13%increase in the second quarter, showing that the growth rate has begun to slow. By July and August, the price fell 17%year -on -year. Another example is the price of raw milk. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 5%compared with the same period last year, and this year has fallen 4.4%so far, which is also a process of gradually declined. For another example, the costs of beans and packaging have fallen to varying degrees of declines since this year, which will have a certain guarantee for the profit margins of some industries in the second half of the year.

The pressure on the cost end has been prone to the third quarter, but the recovery of the demand side has not reached expectations. In the data of the month in July, the consumption, service industry, and investment declined a lot. Yin He pointed out that consumption recovery in July was weaker than market expectations, and the factors behind them include the epidemic and so on. As one of the indicators to observe the recovery of consumption, catering is still weak compared with 2019, which shows that consumption has not fully recovered.

Risk of brand force resistance is highlighted

There are still some differentiated performances in the demand. The profit growth rate of alcohol, textile manufacturing, home, and food sector is the top; and the growth rate of beauty, brand clothing, and beverages in optional consumption is relatively obvious. Essence

Such differentiation performances, coupled with the pre -expected performance of Pinduoduo, a refined example of some new consumer brands, the popular examples of the price of the presence, and the popular food, etc., the market has begun to discuss the current consumption in a wide range of relegation. Yin He said that many investors have recently come to consult the issue of consumption downgrade. In this regard, Yin He pointed out that he did not agree with the judgment of consumption downgrade. The interim report reflected that for most leading companies, the growth performance of mid -to -high -end products in their product lines is still very stable. For another example, consumers in low -line cities have never been drinking milk to drinking milk. From buying white products to choosing brand products, they can actually be regarded as the process of consumption upgrade.

Yu Jian, the general manager of the Greater China Consumer Index, also pointed out to reporters that offline cities such as Douyin and Pinduoduo can generally promote consumption upgrade if they can achieve healthy and orderly development. Consumers originally bought things from the wholesale market, now to buy from Douyin or other platforms, so they will still promote consumption to develop in the direction of quality.

Differential performance is not only in structure, but also different companies in the same field. For example, in the cosmetics sector, the overall retail sales of the industry fell by 2.5%in the first half of the year, while leading companies such as Polia and Huaxi Biological, the leading company, performed better than the industry as a whole. Another example is the field of leisure food, the price of raw materials rose, and the increase in transportation costs caused the industry to overtake the overall pressure. Among them, the revenue of Liangpin Shop increased by 10.72%year -on -year, and the net profit increased slightly by 0.67%year -on -year. The revenue of food revenue increased by 12.49%year -on -year; net profit increased by 7.25%year -on -year. The three squirrels were double -revenue, and net profit decreased by 76.65%year -on -year.

Yin He pointed out that in general, the leading company in the industry is large, strong procurement capabilities, and strong prediction capabilities, so the degree of pressure will be different. In addition, the premium capacity of the leading company's products will also be stronger, and the price will be picked up without losing the market share, which reflects the brand's capital.

Zha Fengping, the strategic director of the Internet Boyei China Brand of Interbrand, pointed out that from the business level, with the changes in market demand structure, successful companies generally regulate product structure and product demand to achieve product service upgrades and coverage of market segments. Can find more possibilities in the changing environment. From the brand level, the brand can play a role in resource focusing, helping enterprises to choose from, and does not expand without borders.

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