CPI and PPI "scissors difference" for the first time in 2021, how to perform in the future?

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 9th. On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in August, consumer prices (CPIs) across the country increased by 2.5%year-on-year; from January to August, CPI rose 1.9%over the same period last year.

In August, the national industrial producers' ex-factory prices (PPI) increased by 2.3%year-on-year and 1.2%month-on-month; from January to August, PPI rose 6.6%over the same period last year.

CPI and PPI "Scissors difference" for the first time in 2021

Chen Xing, chief analyst of Macroex of Zhongtai Securities, pointed out that the year -on -year growth rate of CPIs was decreasing in August, but it was still at a high level, and the year -on -year growth rate of PPI continued to fall sharply. In August, the growth rate of CPI exceeded PPI, the first time since 2021. The difference between CPI and PPI scissors is for the first time in August. It is expected to further expand in the future. Driven by the consumption season, the profit improvement of the middle and lower reaches, especially the consumer industry, is expected.

Zhong Zhengsheng, the chief economist of Ping An Securities, also reminded that there are two central viewing clues worthy of attention: First, the scissors of PPI-CPI are poor, which has been in negative for the first time since 2021. For industries related to consumption of some residents, CPI is related to the growth rate of their sales prices, and PPIs to a certain extent indicate the growth rate of its unit cost, and the gross profit margin is expected to usher in improvement. Second, during the fall of PPI, the downward speed of PPIs in the mining and raw material industry is significantly faster than the midstream manufacturing. For example, general equipment manufacturing, railway, ships, aerospace, and other transportation equipment in August were the same as that of August, and its raw materials were mostly linked to the PPI of the mining and raw material industry. The gross profit margin may be promoted.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that due to the increase in pork prices, the year -on -year increase in pork prices, high declines of crude oil prices, and weak domestic demand, CPI increased slightly in August, but it was still in continuous inflation within 3%. It laid the foundation for the central bank to continue to implement a relatively loose monetary policy. PPI rose 2.3%year -on -year, a narrowing of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Due to factors such as high bases and oil prices in the same period last year, the PPI increased year -on -year increase continued to fall. Compared with the pressure on the high inflation faced in Europe and the United States, my country's overall inflation level was not high.

Zhang Aoping, Dean of the Institute of Incident, emphasized that the decline of CPI data shows that under the active work of maintaining the price of supply and stable price, the consumer market runs smoothly. However, it is important to note that from the core CPI that can truly reflect the deduction of food and energy prices that can truly reflect the operation of macroeconomic operations, the core CPI in August has increased by only 0.8%year -on -year, and it has been at a low position for a long time, which reflects effective domestic demand. Insufficient demand.

According to Wen Bin, the chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, the current rising price of domestic prices has reflected that the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable and insufficient demand is still the main contradiction of the current economic operation. On the one hand, we will continue to do a good job of protecting the price of important commodities, on the other hand, to accelerate the implementation of investment projects to form a physical workload to promote consumption with investment.

Wen Bin believes that in the context of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and shrinkage, my country's monetary policy will continue to focus on me to play the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy instruments, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing of the real economy.

How to perform follow -up?

How to perform the follow -up of CPI inflation in 2022? In this regard, Shen Xinfeng, the chief macro analyst of Northeast Securities, said that in the future, the CPI will maintain the N -type trend in 2022. Under the low base, September CPI will break the highest level in September. Return again. In terms of core CPIs, the current macro environment is weak and the demand side support is insufficient. It is expected that it will continue to operate at a low level in 2022, becoming the main drag of CPI.

Zhao Wei, the chief economist of Guojin Securities, reminded that the influence of non -food price fluctuations on the rhythm of the CPI trend. In the past two months, CPIs have low expectations, which has a large degree of correlation with non -food drag, and is also reflected in the core CPI. It is mainly due to the slowdown in the price increase of upstream raw materials and the rise in the phase of the epidemic. In the future, the CPI non -food has been seen in the year -on -year or has reached a phased high in June 2.5%, and the impact of changes in the trend on CPI.

Looking forward to September, Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that the prices of pork and fresh vegetables have risen to varying degrees in the near future. In addition, the base of the previous year has declined sharply. The monthly CPI turned up his head year -on -year. However, in the market pattern of residents' consumption restoration, most of the goods and services supply, the increase in non -food prices in September will still be at a low level, and it will form a certain inhibitory effect on the overall CPI upward range. The CPI is expected to be around 2.9%in September, and the core CPI will continue at a low of about 1.0%year -on -year.

Wang Qing's team also said that in fact, the possibility of judging the possibility of CPI in the fourth quarter was also very small, which means that the price situation is expected to continue to be stable during the year, which will provide sufficient space for the flexible adjustment of macro policies.

Chen Xing's team analyzed that since September, food prices have been accelerating. One is that the demand for the festival has rebounded, and the second is the demand for the cities such as Dalian, Chengdu, and Shenzhen.The impact of drought on vegetable production disturbances has gradually appeared, and pig prices, eggs and vegetable prices have accelerated. The price of vegetables has reached a new high in the same period. The increase in the impact of pig prices is slightly lower than the same period of the year. It is expected that September CPIThe risk of rising by 3%year -on -year or another year -on -year rising is still existing.(Zhongxin Jingwei APP) (The point of view in the article is for reference only, does not constitute investment suggestions, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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