The European Central Bank has a sharp interest rate hike difficult to change the euro decline

Xinhua News Agency, Frankfurt, September 9th (International Observation) The European Central Bank has a significant interest rate hike and difficult to change the euro decline

Xinhua News Agency reporter Shao Li Shan Weiyi

The Central Bank of China announced on the 8th that the three major interest rates of the euro zone were raised by 75 basis points. This is the largest interest rate hike since the introduction of physical euro currencies in 2002. But the interest rate hike decision did not bring effective boost to the euro exchange rate. Observer pointed out that due to the lingering of energy shortage and high inflation, the economic prospects of the euro zone are not good, and the European and American interest rate hikes are different, and the euro trend is difficult to significantly improve in the short term.

There are three key information issued by the European Central Bank's announcement on the day: First, the European Central Bank has once again increased the inflation forecast of the euro area again. The inflation rates are expected to reach 8.1%and 5.5%, respectively, which are far higher than 2%; The European Central Bank's judgment of the economic growth of the euro zone will be slowed and may be stagnant, and the economic growth rate will drop from 3.1%this year to 0.9%next year. Third, the European Central Bank believes that the depreciation of the euro will further increase inflation.

The European Central Bank President Lagarde said in a question that the reporter said on the same day that the interest rate hike at 75 basis points was not normal, but if necessary, the European Central Bank would continue to raise a sharp interest rate hike.

Casten Bukiski, head of the Macro Research Department of the Dutch International Group, pointed out that the European Central Bank's interest rate hike decision is a historic measure, indicating that the influence of pigeons in decision -making has been greatly weakened. It is expected that it will be added before the end of the year. 75 basis points.

But after a sharp interest rate hike, many institutional investors still fell the euro. Analysts believe that the European Central Bank has increased its efforts in interest rate hikes, but the pace is still far behind the Fed. The gap between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will bring downward pressure on the euro.

The Canadian Daoming Securities Corporation believes that the 75 -basis point of interest rate hikes can only gently support the euro in the short term. The prospect of European energy crisis is also a key factor in determining the future trend of the euro.

The European Energy Exchange, located in Leipzig, is currently traded by the electricity delivered next year at a price of about 500 euros of about 500 euros per MWh. The price had previously risen to 800 euros per MWh. The price last summer was around 80 euros per MWh.

The German Industry Federation released a survey of nearly 600 companies on the 7th. More than 90%of the interviewed companies stated that the price of energy and raw materials rose, or endangered survival, or brought major challenges. One -fifth of the interviewed enterprises are considering moving part or entire enterprise abroad; nearly one -tenth of companies have stopped or reduced their production in Germany.

The Institute of Economics, Germany recently issued economic forecasts that the GDP in Germany will shrink 0.7%in 2023. The agency said that the impact of the energy crisis has just begun, and it will not be fully appeared next year. The sharp rise in energy prices is dragging the German economy into the decline.

Michel Horstai, chief economist of the German Central Cooperation Bank, said that the record of raising records is too late, and the European Central Bank will have to take the risk of deteriorating the economy to slow down inflation.

- END -