Demand stretching weakness and not as much as expected, black futures continue to be sharply adjusted sharply

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

On June 20, the black futures continued the decline in the previous few days, and continued to call back sharply. Compared with the phased highs around June 10, the cumulative declines such as hot -rolled rolling plates and threads have been close to 15%, and the cumulative declines of coking coal, coke, iron ore, etc. have exceeded 20%in the past 10 days.

The analysis agency pointed out that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply, and the demand for the domestic steel market was not as good as expected, etc., all of which have driven the large -scale callback of black futures prices in this round.

From the perspective of the market situation, the steady growth policy provides strong expectations for the recovery of the steel market, but it coincides with the faint season of traditional demand. The collision between strong expectations and weak reality continues. The steel market is expected to bottom out weakly. However, the price of the original fuel is still at a high level. With the cost support, the space for steel prices to continue to be greatly adjusted is not much.

Black system decreased by more than 20 % within a month

Beginning at the end of last year, black -line futures such as iron ore, coke, hot rolls fluctuated all the way, reaching the high point in mid -to -late April, and then declined all the way. Beginning in late May, the price of black futures rose steadily, and this rise continued until early June.

Around June 10, the futures prices of iron ore, coke coal, coke, hot rolls stabilized for several days since the end of April, and then began to decline sharply again.

On the morning of June 20, black futures such as coke, coke, iron ore, and other black systems fell again and continued the decline in the previous few days. As of the afternoon of June 20, the main contract of coke futures fell 11.48%to close at 2921 yuan/ton; the main contract of coking coal futures fell 10.61%to close at 2322 yuan/ton; the main contract of iron ore futures fell 10.98% Close at 746 yuan/ton. Steel and hot -rolled rolling board futures also decreased significantly, closing at 4149 yuan/ton and 4220 yuan/ton, respectively, with a single -day decline of 5.98%and 6.53%, respectively.

Compared with the price on June 9, the cumulative decrease of hot -rolled rolling plates and threaded steel futures was about 14%, and the cumulative decline in coke, coke coal, and iron ore exceeded 20%.

As of June 20, the price index of the general iron ore fell to $ 122.2/ton, back to the price level at the beginning of the year.

According to Zhang Fengrui, a senior analyst at Langer Iron and Steel, the Fed's interest rate hikes, the slow recovery of domestic steel demand, and macro -data concerns caused the demand for steel in the period, etc., all of which have led to the sharp callback of recent black futures.

Last week, the Fed raised 75 basis points, exceeding market expectations, which also became the largest interest rate hike since the Federal Reserve since 1994. Zhang Fengrui said that the major interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve have triggered the concerns of the financial market's tightening in the later period, and the market risk aversion has increased greatly. According to the current inflation situation in the United States, it is expected to continue to raise interest rates in the later period.

Zhang Fengrui said that the recently released macro data announced in China is less than market expectations. In May, the newly started construction area in May fell 41.8%year -on -year. Although the growth rate increased slightly from April, the growth rate was less than the market expectations, which caused the market to have the demand for steel in the later period of steel. Worries.

At present, the raw material side is still in a state of high demand, but the profit of steel mills loses losses, and the policy side of the policy side of rude steel is continuously fermented. The market expects future demand will be significantly weakened, and then negative feedback on steel and raw materials will also be formed.

My steel network analysis pointed out that the recent downstream demand is still declining, the transaction of building materials has maintained a low level, and the demand has not seen a turn, which leads to the decline in the price of the material, which drives the entire black market to weaken down. On the other hand, the spot price of coke in some areas rose to the ground in two rounds, the materials were weakened, coke was strong, and the profit of steel enterprises was squeezed in two -way. Prices fall.

The agency expects the steel market to bottom out weakly

Although the price of the original fuel has fallen, it is still at a high level, which constitutes a large cost pressure on steel companies. As steel companies enter the edge of profit and loss, steel production has also fallen into the pressure of high price and reduction of production.

Poor demand superimposed output rebounded, resulting in the rise of overall steel inventory, the price of steel prices is not easy, and it also puts pressure on the fund chain to the relevant parties.

Prior to mid -April this year, due to the adjustment of the stable growth policy and the adjustment of real estate control, the production of steel production in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of last year has led to the rise in overall steel prices.

At the end of the first quarter, due to the continuous weakness, the peak season of "gold, three silver and four" did not appear. In the two months since mid -April to the present, although steel prices have also risen slightly, the overall steel price is in the lower range.

The China Iron and Steel Industry Association pointed out that the production of domestic steel production in May has increased from the previous quarter, and many places have been introduced in many places, and the national stable growth policy has been introduced. After the increase in production growth, the price of original fuel rose sharply, resulting in a slight downward trend of steel prices.

China Steel Association stated that the current downstream industry resumption and re -production are being promoted in an orderly manner, and the demand for steel is expected to return to normal as soon as possible. Steel enterprises should carefully analyze the market demand situation and do a good job of maintaining stable prices; It is still at a high level, and the cost pressure on steel companies is still relatively obvious.

Lange Iron and Steel Network pointed out that most of the steel mills have recently been on the edge of profit and loss, and steel mills have fallen into a dilemma of price and reduced production. Despite the accelerated implementation of the policy in many places, the policies have encountered the low season of the traditional demand of the steel market, showing a significant collision of weak expectations. Insufficient demand is the main line, the cost support is the bottom line, and the expected traction of the stable growth and strong growth is expected to bottom out in a weak steel market. In addition, the significant rise in steel inventory data is worth noting. Since March, the demand for steel has continued to be low due to the influence of various factors such as epidemics. For future optimism expectations, steel -related futures prices have continued to rise, and even rising at the spot price, which has also led to the continuous accumulation of steel inventory, and the pressure on steel mills and spot traders has continued to increase.

Recently, the inventory of the 29 cities across the country by Lange Iron and Steel Network statistics is about 15%higher than the same period last year, which is rare in recent years. From mid-March to mid-May of each year, the social inventory of steel is about 30-40%, but only 16%of the same period this year, reflecting that the state of supply and demand is weak.

Ma Li, general manager and chief analyst of Lange Iron and Steel Network, pointed out that high inventory has a test of the capital chain of the entire industry. In addition, the stock market has relatively high inventory and a strong willingness to ship, which also makes it difficult to rebound in spot.

Himeli said that although the price of steel has been falling, the price of raw materials is still relatively strong, and the price of steel will not fall sharply in the later period, unless the price of raw materials falls down; It is expected that the space for steel prices will continue to be greatly adjusted in the later period.

My steel network analyst Wu Jianhua pointed out that with the expansion of the steel plant's active suspension of production and reduction teams, the supply side has improved expectations; Essence Over time, consumption has improved expectations.

Wu Jianhua said that under the situation of high inventory and low demand, steel prices still have downward pressure; in the mid -term, as the supply and demand gradually improves, the contradiction is eased, and the steel price is expected to gradually stabilize in the bottom of the bottom.

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