Fresh vegetables and egg prices have risen. Will the CPI hit a new year in August?

On September 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the influence of the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) and fresh vegetables and egg prices in August. Many institutions predict that the CPI will increase slightly in August or expand slightly.

The year -on -year increase in CPI or renewing the year -on -year high

In July, affected by the rise in food prices such as pork and fresh vegetables and seasonal factors, the CPI rose 2.7%year -on -year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, a new high of the year. What is the year -on -year CPI?

CPI rising and downward trend chart. Picture from the National Bureau of Statistics

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in August, the average price of pork wholesale markets for the wholesale market of agricultural products (5.900, -0.09, -1.50%) across the country was 29.11 yuan/kg, which was flat, up 36%year -on -year; the average price of vegetable wholesale was 4.11 yuan/kg , Increased by 3.7%month -on -month and 8.5%year -on -year; the average wholesale price of eggs was 10.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 7.2%month -on -month, an increase of 2.1%year -on -year.

"The high -frequency data in August shows that the price of fresh vegetables and eggs has risen month -on -month, forming a certain upward pulling effect on CPI food items." CITIC Securities (19.310, -0.06, -0.31%) believes that due to the pressure of pork breeding household pressure in the early stage The situation of the sale gradually relieved. The price of pork in August was basically the same as last month, and no significant upward trend was seen.

"Considering the negative impact of the multi -point extension of the August epidemic on service consumption repair, the decline of crude oil prices to drag on traffic and communication prices, and non -food CPIs may have a certain month -on -month decline. In summary, it is expected that the CPI in August is expected to Gentle raising to about 2.9%. "CITIC Securities said.

However, Huachuang Securities believes that the situation of the epidemic prevention and control and the downward pressure on the economy continues to suppress the core inflation upward slope. The adjustment of international oil prices has driven the price of domestic refined oil prices significantly, and both drag out the speed of CPI. The CPI is expected to grow in August, and it has fallen slightly from a slightly fall to about 2.6%year -on -year.

According to the same flowers (83.890, 0.09, 0.11%) ifInd statistics, the average prediction value of 17 institutions on the year -on -year increase of CPI was 2.79%. If the above average prediction value is fulfilled, the year -on -year increase in CPI will continue to expand, a new high of the year.

Data map: Shanghai Chongming, residents buy pork in the temple -town marketing market. Photo by reporter Tian Yuhao, a reporter from China News Agency

CPI is expected to maintain a reasonable level

China -Singapore Finance reporters sorted out data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry. It was found that due to seasonal factors and relevant departments strengthened market regulation, etc., from the end of July to mid -August, pork prices had declined slightly for many weeks. But since late August, pork prices have "raised" again.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August 29th to September 4th, 2022, the average purchase price of pigs from the nationwide -scale pig -oriented slaughtering enterprises was 23.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.2%month -on -month and 51.7%year -on -year. The average ex -factory price of white bars was 29.96 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.1%month -on -month and 45.9%year -on -year.

"Before the market was concerned about the upward driving of lard resonance on CPI, it would lead the CPI to a relatively high reading." Minsheng Securities stated that according to our understanding of the CPI weight, the impact of the pig cycle on the CPI may not be less than that of the CPI period. Previous market expectations. In the second half of the year, CPI has a high probability of upward, but there is no need to worry about the upward range of CPI.

Fu Linghui, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Bureau, believes that from the perspective of the next stage, despite a certain pressure on the rise, the price remains more stable. The overall is sufficient; the second is that the price of pork does not have a significant increase in rising; the third is that international input factors are expected to decrease.

"From the perspective of the second half of the year, despite the short -term factors, the consumer price increase may be higher in individual months, but from the perspective of the year, it is conditional that the consumer price of residents remain at a reasonable level." Fu Linghui pointed out.

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