Windskin think tank | PPI-CPI scissors difference reverses, the problem of insufficient demand is further prominent

Fengkou Finance reporter Liu Xiao

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9, the consumer price (CPI) of residents (CPI) in August 2022 rose 2.5%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.1%month -on -month, and the factory producer's factory price (PPI) rose 2.3%year -on -year, a decrease of 1.2%month -on -month. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that in August, various regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, strived to overcome the impact of epidemic and extreme weather, actively do a good job of stable and stable prices, the overall stability of the consumer market operation was stable Essence

Several experts interviewed by Fengkou Finance and Economics said that the moderate rise in domestic prices reflects that the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable and insufficient demand is still the main contradiction of the current economic operation. Under the background of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and shrinkage, my country's currency Policies will continue to focus on me, give full play to the two functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing in the real economy.

Price and scissors welcoming reversal

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the Trone Finance that August CPI rose by 2.5%year -on -year, and the increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, due to extreme weather, the prices of fresh fruits and vegetables have remained rising. Generally speaking, food prices rose 6.1%, non -food prices rose 1.7%, and the increases fell. The core CPI of food and energy prices rose 0.8%year -on -year, the same as last month.

In August, PPI rose by 2.3%year -on -year, and the increase fell by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The main reason is that the continued rise in the decline of international demand has led to the decline in the price of commodities such as international crude oil and non -ferrous metals. The influence of species is that the price trend of domestic industrial products has declined as a whole, and the year -on -year increase in PPI has continued to fall.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told Caikou Finance that the CPI fell in August to exceed expectations, mainly because the demand in August was weak, and the supply of consumer goods was sufficient and the increase in oil prices had fallen significantly. The overall performance of the price in August was mild, and the price increased steadily. Although it was disturbed by short -term factors such as local high temperature weather and festivals in August, overall, domestic market materials and consumer goods supply was sufficient, and the market price increased smoothly.

Zhou Maohua believes that the PPI in August increased year -on -year. It was mainly affected by the significant decline in energy and commodity prices in August, the release of domestic supply stability policies and the effects of the base effect last year. The slowdown of PPI year -on -year help relieve the cost pressure of the midstream manufacturing investment in the middle and lower reaches, and promote the profit distribution of upstream and downstream industries in the direction of sustainable direction, which helps reduce the input -type inflation pressure. However, he believes that the impact of deducting bases is that the price of energy commodities is still at a high level, and the cost pressure of some manufacturing industries is still high. The domestic policy measures to reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprises cannot be relaxed.

"Since 2021, CPI has exceeded PPI for the first time, and the price of scissors in prices has ushered in reversal." Ding Yujia, a researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, told Fengkou Finance.

Ding Yujia further analyzed that in August, it belongs to the off -season of pork consumption. The seasonal seasons weakened and the rhythm of the pig's outlets gradually recovered, and the price of pork was high. Although the northern vegetables are listed in large quantities, the high -temperature drought in the south affects vegetable production and supply. The price of fresh vegetables will rise in August. Due to the high price base in July, the month -on -month increase was lower than the historical average of the same period. The seasonal uplink of egg prices in food still supports CPI. The decline in non -food prices has expanded, and traffic communication items are still mainly dragged. In August, industrial products continued the overall downward trend, resulting in a sharp decline in PPI. In the year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the contribution of the tail-tail factor was about 2.5%, and the new price increase was about -0.2%. The prices of production materials and living materials fell.

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

September CPI rose year -on -year or re -lifted

From the data point of view, the CPI rose moderately in August, but in the third and fourth quarters of the peak consumption season such as the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, will domestic inflation pressure increase?

Looking forward to the price trend in September, Ding Yujia believes that as high temperatures have fallen and main holidays such as Mid -Autumn Festival, National Day, etc., consumption is expected to accelerate repair. However, the current outbreak has erupted in many places, and the overall prevention and control situation is still severe, and the flow of inter -provincial flow may be limited. In September, the price of pork was in the upward cycle, but as the pork reserves of various places were put in one after another, the price of pork prices had limited kinetic energy.

"It is expected that the CPI will rise again in September. Whether it can break 3 depends on whether the market expectations of the market after pork storage and whether the epidemic has continued to disturb the demand repair. As the European and America firmly promote interest rate hikes, overseas recession risks exacerbate the international community Commodity prices, stacking domestic demand, distribution of epidemic, or disturbing production and restoration process again, PPI will continue to fall sharply year -on -year. Domestic input price transmission pressure is reduced, the epidemic prevention and control is normalized, and the stable price is strong and orderly. The characteristics of great fluctuations in PPI have obviously weakened. "Ding Yujia believes that in the next six months or even longer, the situation of high CPI and low PPI may continue. Keeping the low -level operation of PPI is conducive to the improvement of the production and operation of midstream and downstream enterprises, and has a positive effect on promoting economic recovery and economic stable growth.

It is worth noting that the official WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission on September 6th news shows that the Development and Reform Commission will put in the first batch of central frozen pork reserves on September 8 this year, and instructed various places to increase pork reserves in recent times. At present, Guangxi, Sichuan, Jilin, Ningxia, Hunan and other places have launched local pork reserve and launch, and other provinces are also having the preparation of pork reserves. The Development and Reform Commission stated that in the next step, the state will pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, and then further increase the reserve and launch when necessary. At the same time, it is recommended to keep the rhythm of the normal column of breeding (field) households, and related enterprises to release pork commercial inventory in an orderly manner to ensure market demand.

On June 10, consumers purchased vegetables in a supermarket in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Xinhua News Agency

Insufficient demand is the current prominent contradiction

"I am not very worried about inflation, because China itself is a large manufacturing country. Our export goods in the world account for 16%, far exceeding other countries, indicating that the entire domestic capacity is sufficient and even faces pressure from excess capacity. "Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities and Executive Dean of the Research Institute, said in an interview with the Thautong Finance that domestic inflation is controllable at present, and the main factor that caused inflation is food prices, especially the rise in pork prices. In the second half of the year, the CPI may exceed 3%, but it should still be maintained at about 2.5%throughout the year. Promote consumption.

Ding Yujia told Fengkou Finance that the CPI and PPIs in August were lower than market expectations, and the problem of non -vibrating domestic demand was further prominent.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the State Council's executive meeting held on September 7 once again pointed out that insufficient demand is the current prominent contradiction. It is necessary to focus on consumption and investment demand, promote social investment, and investment with investment. Support the update and transformation of equipment for weak economic and social development, which is conducive to increasing the level of rejuvenation, increasing the actual needs of the manufacturing and service industry, and boosting market confidence. The meeting also pointed out that infrastructure and other livelihoods are related to development and people's livelihood. Investment space is large, and special debt should be made up for shortcomings. The meeting decided that more than 500 billion yuan of special bonds deposited in accordance with the law in accordance with the law, 70%of the special bonds, 70%of them were reserved, 30%of the central government's overall allocation was allocated and tilted to many areas with mature projects. All localities should be issued by the end of October to support projects under construction, and more physical workloads are formed during the year.

Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of Haikaiyuan Fund, told Fengkou Finance that due to the increase in pork prices, the high decline in crude oil prices, and weak domestic demand, CPI increased slightly year -on -year, and it was still within 3%. Better benign inflation has laid the foundation for the central bank to continue to implement a relatively loose monetary policy. Compared with the pressure of high inflation in the United States, my country's inflation level is not high, which also makes the Chinese and US monetary policy inevitable.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the overall mildness of the domestic inflation situation is expected to continue, which is in sharp contrast to the high inflation of the United States and Europe. This fundamental difference in economic fundamentals determines the foundation of "the main" of domestic macro policies, and does not need to follow up with the tightening of the Fed's implementation policy.

Wen Bin also said that from the perspective of price data, the current rising price of domestic prices also reflects that the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable and insufficient demand is still the main contradiction of the current economic operation. Continue to do a good job in the protection and stability of important goods, on the other hand, accelerate the implementation of the investment project to form a physical workload to promote consumption with investment. In the context of the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes and shrinkage, my country's monetary policy will continue to focus on me, give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, expand the demand for valid credit, and reduce the cost of financing in the real economy.

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