In the next ten years, this industry determines whether human beings can cross the crisis

Zhigu Trends (ID: ZGTREND) | Picture

Most people are hard to imagine that while all human beings are armed to fight the new crown epidemic, other ancient but also terrible infectious diseases are still raging in the unknown corners on the planet.

In the outskirts of Siyaba, the capital of Ethiopia, Xiao Abi and his parents who were still toddling lived in a small house with ripple iron roofs and walls.

His young mother Almaz is a garbage recycler. One day when she came home from get off work, she suddenly felt very uncomfortable, and then she had symptoms of vomiting.

"At the beginning, the doctor didn't know what I had. I took a needle and took medicine, but it didn't improve." Later, Xiao Abi was also sick.

Five months after struggling with illness, she was finally diagnosed with tuberculosis, and the mother and child began to receive symptomatic drug treatment.

Yes, diseases like tuberculosis have never disappeared, but they have never disappeared, but the global population flow and the resistance of germs have gradually increased and stubbornly survived.

In fact, according to the estimates of WHO, an average of four people in the world infected with tuberculosis; although only about 10%of the people in the middle will eventually develop symptoms and cause infections, but if they are converted into an absolute quantity, this is still very good Terrible numbers.

A more dangerous signal is that in the past two years of the new global crowns, it even has the trend of rolling soil:

In 2020, the number of tuberculosis reported by various countries fell from 7.1 million in 2019 to 50.8 million, far lower than the estimated 10 million people expected by the WHO.

This does not mean that the tuberculosis has fallen miraculously, but when medical resources around the world are concentrated to fight against the new crown, many patients with tuberculosis cannot obtain effective diagnosis and treatment.

Because of this, the number of global deaths caused by tuberculosis rose in 2020: from 1.4 million in 2019 to 1.514 million.

Picture source: WHO

In 2021, there were 828,074 patients in China, a year -on -year increase of 23.49%. In 2021, 1919 people died of tuberculosis due to tuberculosis. Two people died in the new crown.

01

If this has made you feel a little uneasy, imagine that tuberculosis is only one of the human epidemic diseases that have not been overcome and can still be fatal.

Fast urbanization, increasingly frequent international travel, and even global climate change are accelerating the spread of viruses and microorganisms worldwide. This means that in the next few decades, repeated outbreaks of epidemic diseases are almost unavoidable.

But the biggest challenge is that no one knows what it will cause the next time.

In the past 100 years, the world has experienced 4 influenza popularity, which has occurred every 15 to 30 years, and the probability of occurring each year is between 3%to 7%. Some European scientists predict that the next time it will be a new type of influenza virus, or another new coronary virus.

Professor Ding Sheng, the first dean of the School of Pharmacy of Tsinghua University and director of the Global Health Drug Research and development Center (GHDDI), further pointed out that some older germs are still self -evolving and evolving, and "super germs" may occur in the future; As humans such as Yan have roughly controlled diseases, as the people's immunity decreases, it may also be resurrected.

Professor Ding Sheng, the first dean of the School of Pharmacy of Tsinghua University and Director of the Global Health Drug research and development center (GHDDI)

It is precisely because of this height uncertainty that even for the next 5-10 years, it is difficult for us to predict which virus or bacteria will cause great popularity. This also brings a lot of trouble for scientists to select research directions and explore the method of response.

So, is human beings ready for the future of great popularity? The answer may be a bit pessimistic.

Political perspective, although there are many proposals and lobbying politics for professionals, in recent years, the global black swan incidents have been frequently excessive in recent years. This has left a historical issue: countries have insufficient attention to preventing and controlling epidemic diseases, and their investment is limited.

Economically, it is always accompanied by higher investment risks for the large -scale infectious diseases that have not occurred, which often scares capital away. As for the "poor people" in the eyes of the public, there is also an international imbalance: the demand for drugs and vaccines of these diseases is very high, and developed countries with strong technical strength have no motivation for development and development Essence

These two obstacles have gapped in many epidemic drug reserves.

Professor Ding Sheng uses tuberculosis as an example: The current commonly used drug combinations of tuberculosis, as well as the disadvantages of toxic side effects and long treatment, which greatly reduces the patient's cooperation for treatment. The development of new drugs is imperative.

There is also a fact that ordinary people are even more difficult to imagine: the only vaccine in the world's only vaccine for tuberculosis is invented by the French 101 years ago and can prevent children from being severely ill; the tuberculosis vaccines for adults, so far, have obtained one. No one is approved.

We must find a new way out as soon as possible. Otherwise, the terminal of human beings may not be nuclear weapons, nor a small planet, but a bacterial and virus that has survived and evolved on the earth for billions of years.

02

Fortunately, humans never lack wisdom.

In recent years, Bill Gates, who was drunk in the public, believed that there was no puzzle medicine in response to future epidemic diseases, but to do some institutional innovation and technological breakthroughs. In May this year, the new book "How to Prevent the Next Popularity", Gates mentioned many ideas: it is recommended that the WHO's "Global Popular Copy and Mobilization Group" (Germ) is recommended to urge governments to spend necessary expenses for governments. Improve the ability to detect, monitor and control potential epidemic conditions, and organize simulation of epidemic prevention;

Active monitoring of wastewater, looking for signals in the environment, and early outbreak of the virus;

Investment in the compound library and distributed manufacturing capabilities, the infrastructure of research and development and production;

Native

Of course, some of these ideas may be more difficult. For example, the "Germ" group conceived by Gates, its goal is to lobby governments to increase their expenses to increase the ability to detect, monitor and control potential epidemic through diplomatic and dialogue, and carry out epidemic prevention simulation.

But as many insiders interpret, the realization of this idea may encounter many political and diplomatic resistance. This is difficult for ordinary people to control.

In fact, there are actually many cooperation mechanisms internationally, such as the "Global Fund" for AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and the "COVAX" (COVAX) initiated by the WHO "COVAX" initiated by the WHO. It has a considerable role, but it is not perfect.

Picture source: WHO

Professor Ding Sheng also talked about the resistance of international cooperation: "This international cooperation model that involves the rapid response of multiple countries and allocates to allocate limited resources. In the short term, there will be no perfect answer."

Perhaps it is more control and certainty to explore solutions from technology: continue to promote the advancement of pharmaceutical technology and reduce the interference of the normal operation of the whole society.

For example, during the new crown epidemic, people have made a lot of investment and accelerate the application of MRNA vaccine technology. Professor Ding Sheng believes that the new role that this technology can play in the next 5 to 10 years is worth looking forward to.

On the other hand, the concept of "broad -spectrum vaccine" and "broad -spectrum drugs" has also paid attention to it in recent years. Professor Ding Sheng said: "The broad -spectrum vaccine is not a new concept, but it has not been in -depth research and development. With the continuous emergence of the new variant of the new crown virus, the global epidemic has rebounded many times, and people's demand for broad -spectrum vaccines has increased. Spectral antiviral drugs are also likely to have new breakthroughs. "

03

Regardless of the various ideas of professionals, it is obvious that the urgency of making changes is obvious.

Bill Gates was worried that when the new crown pneumonia really faded, people's attention would turn to other problems, and the popular prevention and control will be put on hold and forgotten again. He believes that it is the best window period of action now.

In the past two years, this sense of urgency has also increasingly presented in the official documents and actions of our country: the National People's Congress is developing the law of public health incident response to the National People's Congress to modify the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Many national departments have also introduced industrial policies for breakthrough drugs and innovative drugs.

In various cities, a battle for the frontier industry in the future has also begun quietly.

During the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" period, Beijing proposed to vigorously develop strategic emerging industries such as electronic information, biomedicine, aerospace, new energy, and new materials; in the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan", Beijing further proposed a new generation of information information Technology and pharmaceutical health have developed into two international pillars, forming a two -wheel drive pattern of 'chip' and 'pills''.

The development of new industries requires new organizational forms and regulatory models, and it also needs to gather global capital and top talents. Beijing has made a lot of effort for this:

In 2016, the Beijing Municipal Government innovatively adopted the PPP (government and social capital cooperation) model in the field of scientific research to remove institutional obstacles for the establishment of the Global Health Drug R & D Center (GHDDI). It is understood that GHDDI is also the first non -profit organization in China to participate in the hosted by China, which focuses on new drug research and development and rapid transformation of new drugs focusing on global health diseases.

Picture source: Global Health Drug Research and Development Center (GHDDI)

In recent years, GHDDI lived up to expectations and came up with a number of heavy research and development results.

When the global new crown epidemic was just outbreak, many scientists from GHDDI and the School of Pharmacy of Tsinghua University abandoned their reunion with their families and actively invested in the development of new crown virus drugs. In response to the new coronal virus 3CL protease, the scientist team successfully designed and synthesized a series of effective compounds in mid-2020. Among them, the prospects of GDI-3549 and GDI-4405 are the most optimistic.

Picture source: Global Health Drug Research and Development Center (GHDDI)

After comparison tests, the research team found that the molecular structure of the GDI-4405 has better biological utilization and exposure, good safety, and lower production costs, so they choose to continue to advance it. Recently, GHDDI and Hansen Pharmaceutical reached a strategic cooperation to sign an exclusive license and cooperative development agreement on the GDI-4405 series of global development, production and commercialization of the GDI-4405 series.

In April 2021, Pfizer announced the first new crown oral medicine in the world. Scientists of GHDDI were surprised to find that it was exactly the same as that of GDI-3549, which was independently discovered and eventually eliminated by GHDDI half a year ago.

In addition, according to Professor Ding Sheng, GHDDI has developed a inhaled small molecular drug for early infections and high-risk people. It has been conducted in Australia in Australia. test. GHDDI has also developed a new type of vaccine agent, which will greatly improve the effects of my country's inactivated vaccine and recombinant protein vaccine in the future, helping it to reach the international leading level. At the same time, as a global healthy explorationer and practitioner, GHDDI also focuses on the early research and development of new drugs such as tuberculosis, malaria, parasitic infection and other diseases. Professor Ding Sheng revealed that tuberculosis is the key R & D field of GHDDI, accounting for more than 30%of the overall investment of the agency.

Picture source: Global Health Drug Research and Development Center (GHDDI)

GHDDI has been further exploring the new mechanism and target of tuberculosis in more fast and safer to remove the new mechanism and target of tuberculosis. With a number of global leading institutions, GHDDI is actively promoting the three drugs of different mechanism targets for tuberculosis.

They will expand the ammunition stores of human response to tuberculosis, forming new therapies with smaller poison and side effects and shorter medication time, and make up for the dilemma of no relevant new drugs for half a century. GHDDI is creating the limit speed of human development of human Ruby Drugs.

04

In addition to epidemic diseases, if there is any more than ten years of development of the world's development, it may be the current anti -globalization reverse flow. In multiple science and technology fields, the United States is deciring with China.

In this context, GHDDI's career has a unique significance: maintaining the open cooperation of Chinese and foreign scientific research, and to improve China's international discourse rights in the global health field.

China is an important part of global health. In 2016, the Ninth Global Health Promotion Conference held in Shanghai discussed and approved the Shanghai Declaration, which aims to improve the status and role of health in the United Nations in 2030 sustainable development goals, marking a new stage of global health work.

To enhance the right to speak, Professor Ding Sheng believes that one must maintain the ability to build.

From the perspective of "ability", our right to speak is a bit limited: my country is mainly based on generic drugs for a long time, and some basic research is relatively weak. The underlying technology research and development and original breakthroughs still have shortcomings. For the research and development capabilities of forging hardcore, GHDDI is an international pharmaceutical research and development institution that can perform fist.

GHDDI has also been actively participating in global health agenda settings.

Picture source: Global Health Drug Research and Development Center (GHDDI)

In August last year, GHDDI joined the Coronatte Virus Accelerated R & D Alliance (Care) as the only Asian member unit. It is understood that it is the first member of China from China.

In the latest "2021 Global Tuberculosis Report" released by the WHO, Director Director Tan Desai wrote: "The struggle with tuberculosis is not only a fight against a single disease, but also for poverty, unequal, and unsafe housing. The struggle of discrimination and stigma, as well as the efforts of expanding social protection and the coverage of the whole people.

"If the new crown has taught us what we have taught us, that is, health is a basic human rights, not the luxury of those who can afford it."

Professor Ding Sheng has also described GHDDI, a private non -enterprise research institution that can exert its unique value:

"Major diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative diseases, etc., there are many countries in the country's head biomedicine companies doing research and development. Instead, some 'old' diseases have low commercial returns and only have demand under specific scenarios. Therefore, no many people are willing to invest in research and development, which affects people's lives, quality of life, and even local economic conditions.

This is also a social organization -as an indispensable force in a civic society -the total value of the common value: the place where the market fails is to make a difference and enhance the overall welfare of society.

Picture source: Global Health Drug Research and Development Center (GHDDI)

We should also realize that drug research and development is a slow process. It does not see the results immediately as I hope to build a elementary school. However, as a cause that is good for humans as a whole, it also needs the continuous investment and support of people, investors and people from all walks of life.

In the third year of the epidemic, we are increasingly felt that the problem that has a long -term trouble of epidemic disease must also end in a long -termist method.

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