Prospective of financial data in August: New credit is expected to rebound, social merger growth may continue to decline

After experiencing the over -expected decline in July, the new RMB loan and social financing scale were restored in August. How strong is it?

According to the point of view of multiple institutions, with the sharp rise in the bill interest rates in mid -to -late August, it shows that financing demand has improved. New credit in August is expected to improve. Located slow down channels.

CICC expects that the interest rate of bills at the end of August will rebound, which means that conventional loans at the end of the month may be strengthened, and they may be supported by infrastructure -related policies. Although the volatility of loans has been large this year, the growth rate is generally stable, and the new loans have not declined sharply year -on -year for two consecutive months. From this point of view, a new loan may rebound in August, reaching about 1.8 trillion yuan. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by about 530 billion yuan. The year -on -year growth rate of credit balance rose to 11.2%.

Tianfeng Securities predicts that the number of bills of bills will continue, and new credit is 1.7 trillion yuan in August.

The agency pointed out that the current focus of credit investment is that the first batch of policy banks 'special financial bonds leveraged financing demand, and residents' loans have a probability of maintaining their decline. From the perspective of bill financing, on the one hand, the average level of bill interest rates in August decreased, and it seems that the number of bills of bills is still continuous and credit investment is poor; Observation history, similar situations have occurred in March and June this year. In the two months, the loan was launched this year. Among them, the interest rate trend of the bill in March was the most similar to August. Therefore, it is expected that the number of bills will continue, but under the support of policy support, corporate demand will increase, and the credit in August may exceed expectations.

In terms of social finance, government bonds and corporate bonds have rarely increased.

UBS Securities predicts that overall in August, new social financing scale is 2 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of about 1 trillion yuan. Specifically, a new RMB loan may reach 1.4 trillion yuan in August, which is slightly higher than the same period last year. The regulatory department requires bank credit to "be released" and announced that it has increased the credit quota of 800 billion yuan in policy banks for infrastructure projects. On the other hand, the net amount of government bonds may remain at a lower level of 250 billion yuan (an increase of 720 billion yuan year -on -year). The net bond issuance of corporate bonds may rebound slightly from July to about 150 billion yuan, but an increase of 315 billion yuan year -on -year. Following the sharp decline in July, shadow credit may increase slightly by 0 to 50 billion yuan.

Guotai Junan predicts that in August, the new social integration was about 260 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 390 billion yuan. The year -on -year growth rate of social integration continued to decline, down 0.1%to 10.6%from July. Affected by government debt margins and high bases last year, the overall growth rate of social integration continued to slow down. The total amount of credit has improved significantly and has become the main contribution of this social integration.

Zhejiang Commercial Securities also believes that in the context of this year's fiscal advance, government debt financing in August was weaker than the same period of previous years, but interest rates are low, policy blessings, and financing environments. The sub -items of the non -acceptance bill are increased. It is expected that the social finances will increase by 2.63 trillion yuan in August, with a cumulative record of 10.6%year -on -year, slightly lower than the previous value of 10.7%.

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