Accident!Why does the iPhone 14 series not increase under high inflation?Analysts say that

08.09.2022

Number of this text: 1329, the reading time is about 2 minutes old

Guide: Looking back at the past three years, one or two weeks after the autumn conference, Apple's stock price often shows a downward trend.

Author | First Finance Li Ailin

On the 7th local time, Apple held an annual autumn conference. What surprised the outside world was that the iPhone 14 models did not raise prices. Before the press conference, Wall Street financial institutions including Bernestein, Morgan Chase and Creditkin all expected that Apple would increase the price of iPhone 14 Pro 100 US dollars.

Joshua Warner, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, told the first financial reporter that the inflation environment has pushed up all the costs from wages to transportation. Compared with the previous years, consumers may be more sensitive to prices, and the budget is tense forced consumption to consume consumption consumption. Those who tilt the expenses more to the necessities. Considering this, Apple is priced cautious. "In addition, after the demand and technical explosive growth during the epidemic, we have seen some warnings that the demand for hardware products such as smartphones, game consoles and personal computers may weaken," he said.

Analyst: Sacrifice profit in exchange for share

The big background of Apple's non -price increase is the continuous strengthening of the dollar and the continuous turbulence of the supply chain.

In July, Apple announced the warning of the second quarter financial report. The exchange rate fluctuations will cause the third quarter revenue to lose $ 5 billion. According to Credit Swiss earlier estimates, 8%to 10%of the US dollar will lead to a decrease of 1%of US companies' profits. However, the strong US dollar has not been fully released. The US dollar index broke through the 110 mark this week and continued to swipe new highs since 2002. It has risen 14%since the beginning of the year. The high -level operation of the US dollar has a test of US companies in the third and fourth quarters.

In an interview with the First Financial Reporter of Sirui Investment Technology Industry Analysis, Bo Xuan said that behind Apple's decision -making decision -making, there is also its own profit and market share to sacrifice profit in exchange for share. "On the one hand, the US dollar settlement system between Apple and suppliers brings a higher settlement price to the latter, but Apple itself has more costs; on the other hand To be turbulent, Apple needs to balance between maintaining low inventory and maintaining production, "he said.

According to a report released by the International Data Company (IDC) on August 2, in the second quarter of this year, Samsung mobile phones won the world's first in the world with a market share of 22%, and Apple ranked second, with a market share of 16%.

In the second quarter of 2022, the market share of the five major mobile phone suppliers in the world (source: IDC official website)

After the press conference, the stock price is often soft

Overnight, Apple's stock price rose 0.9%with the market all day. The cumulative decline of 12%since the beginning of the year, and the S & P 500 index fell 17%at the same time.

Fan Boxuan said that in the past three years, one or two weeks after the autumn conference, Apple's stock price often showed a downward trend because its innovation was not as expected as the capital market. "Investors are looking forward to the launch of disruptive products or functions in the release, but it is often not met, so it will usher in the stage of expected high release. And excellent profitability and stable cash flow, Apple is still a scarce high -quality asset in the secondary market, "he said.

The stock price trend of the stock price after the apple autumn conference in previous years (Figures of Sirui Investment)

In 2022, the Fed started the "Super Interest Interest" period, and has raised interest rates 4 times in a row since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 225 basis points. According to the Fedwatch Tool (Fedwatch Tool), as of press time, the probability of 75 basis points in September was as high as 76%.

The Fed's radical tightening monetary policy has been led by the technology sector of the US stocks in the past ten years. As of Wednesday's closing, as far as the performance of the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 Index, the science and technology sector has plummeted 23%this year. It is second only to the communication service sector. There are only two sectors of China. Among them, energy is the biggest winner, the sector has soared 41%, and public stocks have performed secondary, an increase of 4%.

Fan Boxuan said that the Federal Reserve is still in the interest rate hike cycle, but there may be policy steering in the next six months to a year. It's time for hope. "

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