Photovoltaic expansion: Consumption companies have been urgently urged, and 3 years of production capacity are about 10 times

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Guo Zhiqiang ｜ Beijing report

The photovoltaic industry is a "one light" that cannot be ignored in 2022, illuminating the entire energy track.

In the past 10 years, photovoltaics have been the fastest energy variety of duration costs. Under the technological innovation led by Chinese companies, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen by nearly 90%in 10 years. China's photovoltaic industry has continued to maintain the global leadership of the world, manufacturing the world's first, and the world's first leading position.

The explosive growth of the photovoltaic industry brings the booming upstream and downstream industries, especially the expansion of the production capacity of photovoltaic thermal field components and diamond lines, one wave of waves, and the momentum is very rapid.

At the same time, after the expansion of market capacity, the different voices of the industry's homogeneity competition have also risen.

Increasing the cost -effectiveness of photovoltaics, the demand for market demand

Under the "double carbon" strategy, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a new round of explosive growth. In 2021, the capacity of the new installation of photovoltaic power generation in my country reached 54.93 million kilowatts, an increase of 14%year -on -year; in the first half of 2022, the national photovoltaic power generation was installed with a new installation of 30.88 million kilowatts, of which 11.23 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power stations and 19.65 million kilowatts.

The prosperity is usually the same as the industry's demand painting. The high degree of prosperity means that the industry demand is strong, and the downstream terminal enterprises are "not worried about selling". In order to follow the pace of competitors, some photovoltaic companies have begun to deploy the entire industry chain and add a tide of expanding capacity. Planetary CNC (603185.SH), Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), Beijing Yuntong (601908.SH) and other photovoltaic listed companies have recently announced their expansion plans, ranging from 5 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan.

With the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for photovoltaic consumables such as hot field components and Vajra lines has also entered the fierce stage of customers' urging orders and the stage of comprehensive construction, and the stage of production capacity.

Taking the leading carbon and carbon component market of photovoltaic thermal field (688598.SH) as an example, photovoltaic thermal field carbon and carbon products are the main source of income from Jinbo. First. From the perspective of revenue structure, the company's photovoltaic business accounted for over 95%between 2017 and 2021.

"Now the expansion of photovoltaic components and the development of the photovoltaic industry is a strong correlation." In mid -August, Wang Bingquan, director and general manager of Jinbo Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Weekly that in 2021, the company produced by the company produced It is very serious. This year's consumables are slightly better, which is mainly due to the large release of the company's production capacity in the second half of the year.

According to Wang Bingquan, from 2019 to the end of 2021, the production capacity of Jinbo's photovoltaic thermal field consumables has increased by about 10 times. For more than two years, the company has achieved a 6 -fold growth and profit of 9 times.

Wang Bingquan admits that starting in 2018, the photovoltaic power generation project has gradually lowered or canceled subsidies, and photovoltaic has become an industry that is completely driven by the market. After the subsidy was canceled, all parties of the market began to calculate the economic accounts, and the cost -effectiveness of photovoltaic products continued to increase. It was recognized by market customers. The market demand of photovoltaic installation machines suddenly broke out. The current Chinese photovoltaic market is completely different from the industrial pattern of previous subsidies.

In Wang Bingquan's view, "From the perspective of the company, we do not want to see that the hot field consumables have been in short supply for a long time, and the state of balance is more reasonable to the company's development."

The capacity of the Vajrayana, which is also a photovoltaic consumable, has also ushered in a large expansion. The diamond line is an important consumable in the process of photovoltaic silicon wafers. In the photovoltaic, the diamond line is mainly used for silicon chip cutting (including cutting and slice, slices), and its cutting performance directly affects the quality of silicon wafers and battery efficiency. It is reported that photovoltaic has now become the largest application market in the King Kong line, accounting for more than 90%of the total demand.

With the expansion of photovoltaic giants such as Longji Green Energy and Tongwei (600438.SH), the market demand of the Vajrayana line was pulled.

For example, in the first half of this year, Yujing (002943.SZ) Vajrayana products realized operating income of 798.542 million yuan, an increase of 106.93%over the same period last year. GCL photovoltaic, Gaojia solar energy, Fuxu technology and other photovoltaic industries.

In early August, Zhou Jiahua, the director of the Diamond Materials (300700.SZ), said in an interview with the reporter of "China Economic Weekly", said: "Now some customers have proposed the amount of Diamond Line orders, we dare not let go of the order to connect the order. The production capacity is increasing every month, and the device is officially produced immediately. The production capacity has reached 1.2 million kilometers at the end of June, and the production capacity is expected to reach 1.4 million kilometers in July. "

During the year, the capacity of the Vajrayana of the new material from Lales has increased from less than 300,000 kilometers per month. According to the plan, the release of the Vajra line in the first quarter of 2023 will exceed 3 million kilometers per month.

Zhou Jiahua has a Benbena's capacity account in the heart. The company's largest customer needs 2 million kilometers per month. If the company's 1 million kilometers of order demand, the company's production capacity is full, so it will be full, so "Expanding production" has also become one of the main theme of the Vajrayana industry.

Behind the tight supply and demand is the demand volume brought by the continuous fiery photovoltaic industry. 1GW（光伏装机容量的单位，为1000兆瓦）光伏需要50万～60万公里的金刚线需求，周家华预测，全国今年保守估计生产光伏电池所需的硅料产能将近300GW，那么就意味着， The Diamond Line market for silicon wafers has at least 150 million kilometers. CICC analyzes the market market in the second half of 2022 that the profits of the photovoltaic industry's profits and technological iterations bring the main industry chain investment opportunities. In terms of silicon wafer auxiliary materials, the hot field destocking and price competition basically bottom. With the amount of silicon material, we are optimistic that the industry is expected to improve the margin of supply and demand in the second half of the year. Due to the expected price increase of silicon materials, the process of fine lineization continues to promote the continuous prosperity of the industry's supply and demand.

The worries of excess photovoltaic capacity

According to the forecast of the Longji Energy Research Institute, by 2030, the global new light installation machine will need to reach 1500GW ～ 2000GW. The scale of this installation is equivalent to 10 times the amount of new installation machines in 2021.

At the same time, the photovoltaic industry pattern is coexistence and development of specialized manufacturers and integrated manufacturers. With Longji Green Energy, Jing'ao Technology (002459.SZ), and Jingke Energy Heavy Pleueling Integrity, the market's concerns about the crisis of excess photovoltaic capacity also crisis also Rising.

Regarding the rapid expansion of the production capacity of photovoltaic industry, Wang Bohua, Honorary Chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, publicly stated that he needs to be alert to the excess capacity of some links and the intensified industry homogeneity competition after production capacity expansion.

The worry of overcapacity seems to be in front of it. On August 19, the photovoltaic sector ushered in a long -lost plunge. Tianghe Light Energy (688599.SH), Longji Green Energy, and Jing'ao Technology's three leading stock markets have evaporated more than 80 billion yuan.

According to market agency analysis, as the two leading Tongwei shares in the field of silicon material and battery field actively expand the production of "price war", cut into the component track. The dragon -headed green energy, Jing'ao technology, and Jingke energy formed a lot of pressure.

The improvement of photovoltaic leaders to the integrated industry has attracted industry attention. During the interview, many photovoltaic industry people were more optimistic about the issues of photovoltaic capacity in the "China Economic Weekly" reporter, and they were optimistic about the future potential and space of the photovoltaic industry.

"The release of photovoltaic capacity has reduced costs lower, and the problem of quantity can allow the market to regulate itself." Talking about the overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry, Wang Bingquan believes that the expansion of photovoltaic production means To the market, further reduce the cost of the industrial chain, it is not completely a bad thing for the development of the industry. Don't worry too much about the cycle and overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry. After all, China's photovoltaic industry demand and cost negative correlation, the lower the cost, the higher the demand, and the elasticity.

"Photovoltaic is a highly market -oriented industry. Companies that expand production capacity may not survive. After the market, the market is large waves and sand, and the industry's reshuffle can be survived." Zhou Jiahua believes that in 2018, the photovoltaic industry in 2018 After the policy gradually ended the subsidy, many small photovoltaic companies were washed away. The leading of photovoltaic companies now has cost advantages and technical advantages. In addition, the photovoltaic industry space is very large, and the current photovoltaic capacity is far lower than the future market space of photovoltaic.

Responsible editor | Yang Lin

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