67%of the British people do not believe in the new female prime minister, how can Trams clean up the "mess"?

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Zhang Yan

After receiving the official appointment of the British Queen Elizabeth II, on September 6, Britain ushered in the third female prime minister after Margaret Satcher and Torresa May S..

Two months ago, under a series of public opinion and intra -party pressure, Johnson resigned from the position of British Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader. The Conservative Party of the British Parliament held a total of five rounds of internal voting after that. In the end, the 47 -year -old Tras killed a siege and was elected as the new leader of the British Conservative Party.

Over the past 10 years, Tras has held different positions in the government of the three Prime Ministers, and intentionally or unintentionally put her image close to Mrs. Sachel. In fact, today's Britain is somewhat similar to the "bad stalls" faced when Sachel came to power that year. In the two months of governments, many problems such as inflation, energy crisis, and various strikes have faced the risk of economic recession.

Faced with such a tricky problem, can Tras repeat the success of his idol Mrs. Sachel and reverse the British economic decline?

Economic and people's livelihood is worrying, how can the new government respond to British economic embarrassment

In less than six years, Britain has changed four prime ministers. For the British people, they urgently need a capable leader to solve the imminent problem: the rising energy bills and the cost of living that can no longer be paid.

Before Tellas was elected, the Natural Gas Power Market Office of the British Energy Regulatory Agency had stated that it would raise the upper limit of energy charges again in October. That is, the current family annual basic gas and power caps are raised to £ 1971 to £ 3,549, and next year may rise to more than 6,600 pounds.

The rising cost of life has caused strike in many industries in the UK. Including workers, teachers, nurses, and even lawyers, more and more practitioners have joined the leading strikes and demanded that they have increased their salary to help their families pay for bills such as energy expenditures that continue to break through the new high. The latest polls of the British "Guardian" show that 23%of the British people do not intend to use heating this winter, 70%of the British people will turn on less heating this winter, and 28%indicate that loan payments need to be paid.

Behind the energy billing problem is the high inflation rate of Britain. The report issued by the Bank of England in August predicts that Britain's inflation rate will reach more than 13%this year.

At the same time, Britain is also facing the risk of declining economic growth. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom showed that the initial value of GDP in the country in the second quarter shrinks by 0.1%month -on -month. Following the fourth quarter of last year (1.3%) and the first quarter of this year (0.8%), it has fallen for three consecutive quarters. The Bank of England warns that the economic growth rate of Britain has slowed or even shrinks, and the risk of recession may last until 2024.

In the victory speech on September 5, Tras promised that he would immediately take action to resolve the crisis. In the absence of any details, she said that she was developing a "bold plan" to "solve the energy crisis, deal with the public's energy bills, and long -term energy supply issues to reduce tax cuts and promote economic growth.

Tellas is full of confidence in his "tax reduction" plan. During the campaign, she repeatedly proposed to promote the development of enterprises through tax cuts and stimulate economic vitality. But at the same time, the plan has been publicly questioned many times. After all, tax reduction means that government revenue will be greatly reduced, and Tellas has promised more than once to increase fiscal expenditure. How can the funds gap during this time make up?

Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange analyst Shreyas Gopal analyzed in a recent report that a large -scale, non -funding and non -targeted package of tax reduction and expenditure commitment may shock the global market.

Gopal pointed out that the British account deficit has reached a record level, which means that the pound needs a lot of capital inflows, and it supports currency to increase investor confidence and decline inflation expectations. However, the reality is exactly the opposite. Britain is suffering from the highest inflation rate and weak growth prospects in G10.

"If the UK should avoid extreme macroeconomic events, especially the international income and expenditure crisis, the British government's policy announcement will be important in the next few weeks." GoPal warned: "The international income and expenditure crisis may sound extremely extreme, but it is not unprecedented: A radical fiscal expenditure, severe energy impact, and the decline in the pound eventually led to a loan from the International Monetary Fund in the mid -1970s. "

HSBC estimates that the borrowing of the British fiscal year may be 87 billion pounds than expected. This includes a £ 17 billion tax reduction promised during the campaign.

In recent weeks, with the larger scale of sovereign debt, the cost of lending in the British government has risen significantly. The yield (interest rate) of 10 -year bonds is the highest since the end of 2013, close to 3%, and has increased the most since August 1986.

How long can Tras's tough stance be supported?

For Tras, although it has been elected, it is still a tricky problem to win the widespread support of the people and the party.

In a survey made by British polls YOUGOV recently, only 4%of the surveys made by the British interviewees who did not distinguish between the British interviewees expressed "very happy" to the Prime Minister of Tellas; 18%said "relatively happy"; 17 %Of the respondents said "relatively disappointed" and 33%felt "very disappointed." At the same time, 67%of British interviewees said that the political decision -making of the Trams Cabinet and their plans to respond to the cost of living costs, and only 19%of the respondents expressed a certain degree of trust. It is difficult for the remaining interviewees to evaluate their confidence in the new government. Even within the Conservative Party, Tillas is difficult to get 100 % support. Johnson's forced steps to step down have made the party in the party cracking. In the last party election, Tras defeated the opponent with 81326 votes and former British Financial Ministers Sonak. The final vote rate was 57.4% vs 42.6%. The minimum voting rate obtained by the conservative party leader candidate.

While facing "internal worry", Tellas will also face a series of "external problems such as the Brexit", the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and energy sanctions left by the British "Brexit".

The most tricky is the continuous dispute about the "Northern Ireland Protocol". According to the previous agreement, the Bei Ai area stays in the European Single Market and the EU Tariff League to prevent the "hard boundaries" on the Island of Ireland. Security check. Due to the difficulties in practical operations, the British and the European Union have negotiated many times in some of the contents of the "Northern Ireland Protocol". In June of this year, Tras, who was still the Minister of Foreign Affairs, submitted a motion to the British Parliament to officially announce the specific plan to unilaterally modify the content of the "North Irish" part of the content.

According to British media reports, Tillas is likely to start the 16th emergency clause of Article 16 of the "Northern Ireland Protocol" within a few days after successful election, which will undoubtedly lead to tight relations between British and EU relations and even trigger a trade war.

While serving as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Tras had frequently showed a tough external position. During the campaign, Tras did not hide his "eagle" style. There are already conservatives who are worried about this. These Conservative Party members believe that the British and Conservative Party now need to unite urgently. If Tras "has a stiff relationship" with the European Union or other countries, it will not only make the Conservative Party lose the next election, but also likely the British in the UK. The economy is dragged into another abyss.

Responsible editor | Guo Yiyao

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