Cement industry semi -year vision 丨 nearly 70 % of the company's revenue decline resources continue to focus on the head

Chen Hongxia, a researcher at the 21st Century Economic Research Institute of Economic Research Institute

In the first half of 2022, the operation of domestic concrete companies faced a large challenge. The outbreak of the epidemic and the lack of real estate construction area caused the demand for domestic cement to be significantly weaker than the same period of the previous year. The industry's average sales gross profit margin fell by 9.39%.

On September 8th, the 21st Century Economic Research Institute combined with the central report of 25 A -share cement listed companies found that in the first half of 2022, nearly 70%of the companies in the industry revenue declined, with an average change of more than 23%, attributable to net profit The number of companies declining year -on -year reached 22.

With the rapid decline in the industry, the operating cash flow of many companies also faces a large decline, of which 16 declined companies have changed by -109.90%. At the same time, most enterprises shrink the business scale during the downlink period, and the average financial cost of the industry has decreased by 27.55%.

However, in the context of the overall shrinkage of the industry, head companies may play the role of "cockpit stones", through the transformation and upgrading of business, and the industry's mergers and acquisitions to promote the gathering and development of resources. Compared with the level of the first five years, the revenue of the top 5 companies in the top 5 revenue reached 136.40%, but only a small number of non -head enterprises increased the market value.

Nearly 90 % of companies have declined with net profit

In the first half of 2022, domestic cement demand was significantly weaker than the same period of the previous year, especially in April and May demand failed to rise in the same season as before. Essence

According to Choice data, from January 4 to June 29, 2022, the national cement price index fell 19.67%, and the southern region decreased greater than the north. The decline in North China, Northeast, and Northwest was 10.18%, 10.26%, and 8.16%, respectively. Digital cement network data shows that in the first half of this year, the cumulative cement output of the country was 977 million tons, a year -on -year decrease of 15%, and the production of the minimum of the same period since 2012.

According to the classification of Shenwan Cement Industry, in the first half of 2022, of the 25 A -share concrete companies, 6 companies belonged to net profit to lose money. Tiandi A and Longquan shares have decreased by more than 1,000%year -on -year; although 16 companies have not lost money, they have decreased their net profit year -on -year, with an average decrease of 38.30%. Jinyuan and Tower Group Group decreased by 87.88%and 80.90%year -on -year. Ningxia Ningxia. Building materials, Jinyu Group, and Jidong cement decreased less, respectively -0.70%,-3.99%, and -7.08%.

If statistics are performed according to the non-net profit index, 22 companies will have a year-on-year decline in deducting non-net profit, of which 7 companies deduct non-net profit losses, which are Golden Yuan-1.014 billion yuan, Han Jianhe Mountains- 440 million yuan, -062 million yuan in deep heavenly A, RMB 066 million in Longquan, -095 million yuan in Fujian cement, -139 million yuan in Hainan Ruze, and-145 million yuan in Tibet Tian Road. In addition, in the first half of 2022, there were 17 companies that decreased year-on-year in revenue. The revenue of the revenue of the deep world A, Han Jianhe, Jinyuan, Sanhe tube pile, and conch cement reached -73.35%, -65.78%,- 39.25%, -36.20%, -30.06%.

The epidemic has a lot of influence, and the lack of new real estate construction area of ​​the lower reaches is the main reason for impacting the operating performance of cement enterprises. From January to June 2022, the new year-on-year growth rate of domestic houses decreased by 34.4%. Although the investment in infrastructure investment was 7.1%year-on-year, it was difficult to reverse the decline in the overall demand. Tianfeng Securities analyst Bao Rongfu also said, "The downstream of the cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. From historical experience, the correlation of cement output and new real estate start -up area is stronger."

The deep world A inter -report shows that the company's concrete industry was affected by the epidemic in the first quarter of 2022, the construction market demand resumed slowly, the epidemic in the second quarter was repeated, and the infrastructure market gradually entered the track. A number of local real estate companies in Zhuzhou "exploded", which led to the suspension of projects and rotten orders undertaken by two pre -mixed concrete companies. The company's pre -mixed concrete output decreased sharply and the repayment was severely blocked.

At the same time, the price of raw materials is also promoting the production cost of cement companies. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first half of 2022, the average price of non -tobacco coal was 1437.67 yuan/ton a week, an increase of 50.65%, 58.12%, and 60.80%compared with the same period in 2021, 2020, and 2019, respectively. The Tower Group said, "During the reporting period, the company's cement sales fell, the cost increased, and the operating benefits fell significantly compared with the same period last year. The company's production cost was mainly affected by the price of coal. manufacturing cost."

The entire industry is running pressure

However, some companies have achieved performance growth without the prosperity of the industry.

In the first half of 2022, eight companies increased their revenue. Ningbo Fidge, Ningxia Building Materials, Sifang New Materials, Qingsong Jianhua, Qilian Mountain, Sichuan Shuangma, Jidong Cement, and Jianfeng Group achieved revenue of 1.513 billion yuan, 3.487 billion yuan, 736 million yuan, 2.094 billion yuan, 3.951 billion yuan , 621 million yuan, 16.845 billion yuan, and 1.763 billion yuan, respectively, 65.95%, 52.56%, 44.95%, 25.15%, 19.67%, 14.60%, 3.24%, and 2.89%, respectively. At the same time, the three companies of Qingsong Jianhua, Sichuan Shuangma, and the construction of the west have achieved a net profit growth of 251 million yuan, 522 million yuan, and 378 million yuan, respectively, with an increase of 64.47%, 13.79%, and 4.01%. In terms of non -net profit, only 3 companies have achieved growth. Qingsong Jianhua achieved 241 million yuan, an increase of 80.35%over the same period last year; Sichuan Shuangma was 510 million yuan, an increase of 13.13%year -on -year; The construction of the western part of profit growth achieved a non -net profit of 373 million yuan, an increase of 2.58%year -on -year.

However, for enterprises that rose non -net profit, the company's concrete business pressure operation is still an indisputable fact.

At present, Sichuan Shuangma's annual cement production capacity is more than 2,000 tons, and the annual production capacity of the aggregate production line is more than 5 million tons. In the first half of this year, the company's cement revenue was 350 million yuan, an increase of 14.98%year -on -year; aggregate revenue was 116 million yuan, an increase of 33.60%year -on -year, but "increasing increasing increasing increasing benefits". A year -on -year decline of 5.89%. In fact, Sichuan Shuangma's profit growth point is a private equity business. During the reporting period, the company realized net income of 562 million yuan, an increase of 6.39 times year -on -year.

In the first half of 2022, the sales volume after the cement business of Ningxia Building Materials was 5.1033 million tons/cubic meter, a year -on -year decrease of 16.61%. Ningxia Building Materials stated that the company accelerated the external promotion of smart logistics and transportation business. The increase in the income of the business has increased the company's operating income year -on -year. Due to the low gross profit margin of the business, and due to the increase in the prices of raw coal procurement, the reporting company's profit index was a year -on -year period year -on -year. decline.

At the end of April this year, Ningxia building materials disclosed that the company intends to absorb the merger of China Construction information and control the controlling shares of related business subsidiaries such as Cement of Tianshan Co., Ltd. After the reorganization is completed, the company will no longer carry out the production and sales of cement and cement products, and the company will adjust its positioning to an enterprise -level ICT ecological service platform.

From the above situation, the rapid downside of the cement business is a problem of all enterprises in the industry, and the cash flow situation of various enterprises also constitutes a major test. In the first half of 2022, among A -share cement companies, the net operating cash flow of 16 companies declined, of which the operating nature of the six companies, the new materials of Sifang, Longquan, Fujian Cement, Ningxia Building Materials, and Tower Group Group The cash flow is negative, respectively -082 million yuan, -111 billion yuan, -163 million yuan, -170 million yuan, -249 billion yuan, and -545 million yuan. Among the companies that have increased year-on-year in operating cash flow, the construction of Tibet Tian Road, Hainan Ruize, Sanhe Tube Pile, and Western Construction are still negative, respectively -044 million yuan, -065 million yuan, -202 million yuan, -19.04 100 million yuan.

At present, there are 11 companies operating cash flow over 100 million yuan. Enterprises with more than 1 billion yuan are Tianshan, Conch Cement, Jinyu Group, Qilian Mountain, and Huaxin Cement. 100 million yuan and 3.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -44.67%, -63.66%, -64.52%.

Estimation to the head concentrated on the head

Faced with the pressure of the cement sector, companies in the industry gradually adjusted the scale of business, and the valuation continued to focus on the head. In the first half of this year, while operating the overall decline in cash flow, the financial expenses of cement companies also declined as a whole.

In the first half of 2022, the financial expenses rose and decreased year -on -year cement companies, which were 11 and 14, but the industry average decreased by 27.55%year -on -year. Among them, the financial costs of 21 companies are less than 100 million yuan. The financial expenses of Sichuan Shuangma, Ningxia Building Materials, Qilian Mountain, Shangfeng Cement, Ningbo Fidelity, Tower Group, Conch cement achieve negative value, respectively -001 billion yuan, -004 million yuan, -05 billion yuan, -005 billion Yuan, -017 billion yuan, -019 billion yuan, -945 million yuan, the change is -95.03%, -197.18%, -17.65%, -17.48%, -426.18%, 8.59%, -73.31%.

The other four companies with more than 100 million yuan in financial expenses are Jinyu Group, Tianshan, Jidong Cement, and Huaxin Cement, all of which are in the industry's heads. 165 million yuan. Under the background of the industry's pressure, head enterprises are expected to improve their ability to gather resources.

In the first half of 2022, there were 6 cement companies with a scale of tens of billions of revenue in the cement industry, namely Tianshan, Conch Cement, Jinyu Group, Jidong Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Western Construction, with revenue of 65.446 billion yuan, 562.76 562.76 100 million yuan, 55033 billion yuan, 16.845 billion yuan, 14.389 billion yuan, 11.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -13.68%, -30.06%,-4.64%, 3.24%,-2.41%,-4.36%. In recent years, the valuation growth rate of head companies has significantly higher than other companies. As of September 5, 2022, companies with a total market value of more than 20 billion yuan were Conch Cement, Tianshan, Huaxin Cement, Jidong Cement, and Jinyu Group, with a total market value of 158.907 billion yuan, 83.775 billion yuan, 29.849 billion yuan, and 29.849 billion yuan. 24.083 billion yuan and 23.921 billion yuan. Compared with the same period of 2017, the decline in Jinyu Group reached -63.71%, and the decrease of Jidong Cement was -1.09%. Conch cement, Tianshan, and Huaxin cement increased by 27.53%, 639.61%, and 79.67%, respectively.

The market value is ranked among the 17 A -share concrete listed companies. Compared with the same period of 2017, the number of companies with a rising market value of the total market value is only 4, namely Qilian Mountain, Wanniqing, Qingsong Jianhua, and Ningxia Building Materials, which have risen to 8.982 billion respectively. Yuan, 7.958 billion yuan, 6.067 billion yuan, 5.987 billion yuan, an increase of 9.15%, 62.18%, 17.65%, and 0.89%.

However, it is worth noting that as of the end of June 2022, the top 5 companies in ROIC (investment capital) are not the same as their market value rankings, namely Sichuan Shuangma, Shangfeng Cement, Sichuan Jinding, Qilian Mountain, Ningxia building materials , ROIC is 8.50%, 6.64%, 6.19%, 5.78%, 5.29%. The above -mentioned companies are also basically the top 5 of ROE (net asset yields), namely Sichuan Shuangma, Shangfeng Cement, Sichuan Jinding, Wannian, Qilian Mountain.

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