Refined oil prices stop "five consecutive declines" and full box of 92 gasoline will spend 7.5 yuan more

Reporter Du Yumeng

Recently, the high level of international oil prices has driven the rise in domestic refined oil prices. On September 6, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since 24:00 on September 6, 2022, domestic gasoline prices, diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have increased by 190 yuan and 185 yuan per ton, respectively. The folding price 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel raised 0.15 yuan, 0.16 yuan, and 0.16 yuan, respectively.

At this point, domestic refined oil prices have stopped "five consecutive declines", which has ushered in the first rising for the second half of the year. Looking at the situation during the year, domestic refined oil prices have gone through 17 price adjustment windows, of which 11 are raised and 6 times have been lowered. After the rise and fall, gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,595 yuan/ton, 1535 yuan/ton, respectively. The folding price 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel have been raised by 1.25 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.31 yuan, respectively.

The price adjustment of the price will increase slightly. Zhuochuang Information Refined Oil Analyst Dai Tiandong told the Securities Daily that taking a home car with a fuel tank with a capacity of 50L as an example, the full box of 92 gasoline will spend 7.5 yuan more than before. Taking a heavy truck with a monthly run of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by 304 yuan.

From the perspective of the retail market, Jinlianchuang Data shows that after the reinforcement of oil prices in this round, the price of gasoline No. 92 will be between 8.35-8.5 yuan/lit The price of diesel No. 0 will be between 7.95-8.15 yuan/liter. Except for some low-cost markets in the northeast and northwest, the price of diesel at the rest of the rest of the country will return to the "8 yuan era".

Regarding the trend of the volatility of international crude oil prices as a whole during this round of prices, the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center believes that this is affected by multiple factors. on the one hand. The market expects the final reaching of OPEC production reduction and production reduction agreement, which supports international oil prices; on the other hand, the US dollar index will create a new high limit on the upward space of international oil prices. On average, Brent and WTI oil prices in London rose 2.23%and 0.92%over the previous price adjustment cycle, respectively.

Looking forward to the market outlook, the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center predicts that oil prices will still be operating in the short term. The reason is that the geopolitical game between the Western and Saudi Arabia and Russia -headed oil -producing countries will exacerbate the international crude oil market and bring unstable factors to international oil prices.

Xu Na, an analyst of Zhuochuang News Oil Oil, said that in the short term, we must continue to pay attention to the situation of the production reduction meeting. Although Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries hope to maintain a high level of international oil prices and find a balance in the decline in demand and the support of production reduction, it is expected that the production reduction meeting process may be more tortuous, that is, international crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate.

According to the data displayed by Zhuochuang Information Data Monitoring model, according to the current international oil price level, after entering the new round of refined oil deduction cycle, the re -calculated crude oil change rate is in a negative range, which means that a new round of refined oil products The price adjustment cycle was initially downgraded. However, considering that the next price adjustment window coincides with the domestic Mid -Autumn Festival holiday, the price adjustment cycle is long, so the final price adjustment result is still greater uncertainty.

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