The upward cycle of the shipbuilding industry is to: the ship price rose 21 months in a row. Some company orders row to 2026

The shipbuilding industry may come.

According to data released by Krakson, a British shipbuilding and maritime industry analysis agency on September 6, in August, in August, the global new ship's order volume was 1.88 million amendments (51 ships). Among them, China corrected a total of 1.02 million tons (54%) Stand -headed; South Korea ranked second with 760,000 amendments (41%). As of the end of August, the global order volume was 1027.6 billion yuan amendments. China ranked first (42%) with 43.62 million amendments, and South Korea ranked behind with 35.97 million amendments (35%).

"The price of the ship has risen for 21 consecutive months, and the upward cycle of the shipbuilding industry can basically be determined. Now the orders of major domestic shipbuilding companies are sufficient. Although the quantity may not be as good as last year, the profit of a single order has risen significantly." Debon Securities and Machinery Industry Chief Analyst analysts Ni Zhengyang said in an exclusive interview with the Securities Daily reporter.

The ship price rose for 21 consecutive months

The industry's expected shipbuilding cycle is coming

Clarkson data shows that from January to August this year, the total number of new ships in the world was 27.68 million amendments, a decrease of 30%year -on -year. China and South Korea won the total tonnight (475 ships) and 11.92 million amendments (216 ships) of the total tonnage (475 ships) and 11.92 million amendments, each, each, accounting for 45%and 43%.

From a global perspective, new ship orders have exploded.

The number of new ships worldwide increased from 1058 ships in 2020 to 1765 ships in 2021, a record of 132 million loads, setting a record in the past 10 years. Since 2022, the demand for new ships has not diminished.

Price is the best vane for supply and demand. In August of this year, the price index of Clarkson's new ship built exceeded 160 points, setting the highest level since March 2009, and the price of ships rose sharply.

"The industry has ushered in a new round of large cycles. The history of the development of shipment manufacturing can be divided into four cycles per 100 years. Each cycle is about 20 to 30 years. . "Ni Zhengyang said to the reporter of the Securities Daily.

In addition to rising ship prices, the tension of ship positions is also one of the manifestations of the upward cycle. Clarkson said that the current Chinese shipyard is full of orders, and most of the main shipyard ship positions have reached early 2025.

"In the first half of the year, the company held 239 orders/20.755 million yuan. The order is currently full, and the order schedule has reached 2026." An inside of a shipping company listed company supplemented the Securities Daily reporter.

In addition, high -value -added ship orders represented by the LNG ship increased significantly, and geopolitical conflicts exacerbated the tension and volatility of the global natural gas market. In 2021, the number of new orders for the LNG ship reached 98, an increase of 81 from 54 ships in 2020 in 2020. %. This data reached 108 in the first half of 2022.

The volume and price of the ship rose together

The uplink cycle or just started

"According to historical data statistics, from 1960 to 1973 and 1990 to 2010 was the previous two -round shipbuilding cycle, with an average round of 20 to 30 years. The three major factors. "The insiders inside the listed company of the shipbuilding industry told the Securities Daily reporter.

From the perspective of demand, this round of shipwreck has taken the lead in container ships.

Beginning in the third quarter of 2020, my country's export container freight index (CCFI) began to rise rapidly, which in turn drove the new ship orders to rapidly increase (2021 new container ships added 576 new orders, only 122 new ships were added in 2020), new ships), new ships), new ships), new ships), new ships. The ship price index also started to rise at the end of 2020.

"After the epidemic, the global logistics supply is not smooth, and the major port congestion has led to the rapid rise of maritime prices. The global ship operating efficiency has been reduced, which has promoted the demand for new ship orders. The growth of orders is currently in the stage of volume and price. "Ni Zhengyang told the Securities Daily reporter.

"In the context of energy transformation, the demand for LNG ships is also released one after another. Occasionally, orders for follow -up cargo ships, oil boats, and LNG ships have increased. In addition, the EEXI and CII standards that will take effect in 2023 will accelerate the progress of shipowners. At present, this round will The shipbuilding industry has just started. "Ni Zhengyang said.

Reporter Shi Lu

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