After the domestic oil price "five consecutive declines", the first half of the year was raised, and the "rise and rising" channel opened again?

Fengkou Finance reporter Lou Hua

During this round of price adjustment cycles, international oil prices fluctuated first, and then fell, and eventually the domestic refined oil retail price limit ushered in the upsurge. On September 6th, the National Development and Reform Commission released that domestic auto and diesel retail sales at 24:00 on the 6th raised 190 yuan/ton, 185 yuan/ton, respectively. 0.15 yuan, 0.16 yuan, 0.16 yuan.

After the implementation of the policy this time, the cost of oil use of car owners will rise slightly, and the price of diesel at No. 0 in most regions in China will return to the "8 yuan era".

This is the first rising after the "five consecutive declines" of oil prices this year, and it is also the 11th rise this year. Does this mean that oil prices have opened up the rising channel again. How does it affect the market? Wind Financial reporter conducted an investigation.

International oil prices are broadly shocked

"In the early stage of this valuation cycle, with the booster of Saudi Arabia's production remarks, although negotiations in a country in the Middle East have been carried out, the crude oil prices have been strong and volatile. Then Iraq will expand the export of oil to Europe. The decline of data has led to a decline in crude oil. "Zhuo Na, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information, told Fengkou Finance reporter.

Ma Jiancai, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Oil Oil, told the Crepass Finance reporter that during this round of prices, international crude oil prices showed a wide range of shocks and falling trends. At the beginning of the cycle, many oil -producing countries such as the UAE and Sudan expressed support for the re -implementation reduction of OPEC and OPEC+. At the same time, the Libyan conflict also facilitated crude oil, and the trend of crude oil prices continued to rise. During the cycle, investors are worried that the global central banks are raising interest rates to fight inflation. The economic slowdown expects to increase the demand for oil, and the trend of crude oil is significantly under pressure. At the end of OPEC+decided to slightly reduce the target of oil production, Libya was restricted by power issues to restrict the decline in production capacity, the market atmosphere was boosted, and the trend of crude oil rose again.

Although the price of crude oil has dropped sharply during the cycle, the average price of the comprehensive crude oil is still higher than the benchmark price, and the change rate continues to fluctuate. As of the tenth working day on September 6, the retail price of the domestic refined oil products was opened as scheduled. The average price of reference to crude oil was 95.08 US dollars/barrel, and the change rate was 3.24%. Ton and 185 yuan/ton.

No. 0 diesel back to the "8 yuan era"

The implementation of the policy will be the first time since the second half of this year. After the implementation of this upward adjustment, the price increase of No. 0 diesel in most regions in China will return to the "8 yuan era". At that time, the domestic oil retail price limit in 2022 has been adjusted by 17 times, of which 11 times have been raised and 6 times have been reduced. After the rise and fall, the cumulative increase in auto and diesel will increase by 1595 yuan/ton, 1535 yuan/ton, respectively. The discount price is 92. No. 95 gasoline, No. 0 diesel, 1.25 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.31 yuan, respectively.

On the evening of September 6, the reporter learned that Qingdao's retail price increase was 8.40 yuan 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline 9.02 yuan, 98 gasoline 9.74 yuan, No. 0 diesel 8.10 yuan, and -10 diesel 8.74 yuan. The price adjustment 92 is increased by 0.15 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline increases 0.17 yuan/liter, 98 gasoline increases 0.17 yuan/lit The 20th diesel is raised by 0.18 yuan/liter.

At the Sinopec gas station in Yinchuan West Road, Qingdao, the phenomenon of refueling queues occurred at 5 pm to 7 pm on the 6th. After the retail price of this round of refined oil products will be increased, the cost of oil use will increase slightly. Taking a home car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, the full box of 92 gasoline will spend about 7.5 yuan more than before. In terms of fuel consumption, a small private car with a monthly run of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers is an example. By the time before the price adjustment window is opened, consumers will spend about 12 yuan more.

For the logistics industry, a heavy truck with a monthly run of 1,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L 100 kilometers is an example. Before the next price adjustment window is opened, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 304 yuan.

The zero difference continues to narrow?

During this pricing cycle, the international crude oil has shown a trend of fluctuation. Although the phenomenon of phased recovery is occurred, the market is expected to boost the market. In addition, the demand for domestic refined oil products has improved. Essence Zhuochuang Reinforcement Oil Analyst Dai Tiandong told reporters from Fengkou Finance that under the dominance of good news, the domestic refined oil wholesale price in this cycle showed a trend of fluctuating and increased. Price, so the zero price difference between domestic refined oil batch in this cycle continues to narrow the trend.

"As of September 5th, the main target of domestic main business 92 gasoline theoretical profits was 1246 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the 92 gasoline of local refineries was 1731 yuan/ton. In terms of diesel, the domestic maintenance of No. 0 diesel theoretical profit was 297 yuan/ Tons, local refineries No. 0 diesel theoretical profits are 438 yuan/ton. "Dai Tiandong analyzed that the next valuation cycle international crude oil may continue to fluctuate, and the re -calculated crude oil change rate may be in a negative value range. The next round of price adjustment cycles are initially reduced in order to decline. As the demand for domestic refined oil products will continue to develop, the activity of the market for market purchases and sales will gradually increase, and the bullish emotion will gradually become stronger. Under the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the current domestic refined oil wholesale price may be rising first and then stabilizing. The zero price difference between domestic auto and diesel batch may continue to narrow. Turning up channel opening?

Does the first half of the year have opened a channel for oil prices? Xu Na, an analyst of Zhuochuang Information, believes that in the later period, we must continue to pay attention to the situation of production reduction. Although Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries want to keep the oil prices stable and find a balance in the decline in demand and the support of production reduction, some countries still consider considering Political pressure in the United States, the process of production reduction may be more tortuous, and the price of crude oil may continue to fluctuate. According to the current level of crude oil price level, the change rate after the re -calculation is at a negative range, which means that the next round of price adjustment cycle is initially reduced. Considering that the next price adjustment window coincides with the domestic Mid -Autumn Festival holiday, the price adjustment cycle is long, and the final price adjustment result is still large uncertainty. The price adjustment window is at 24:00 on September 21.

"The changes in the first working day of the new round of valuation cycle were -3.7%, and the corresponding reduction of 200 yuan/ton corresponds to the corresponding equipment. Because OPEC and its production reduction alliance decided to reduce production in October, in the short term, it supports the trend of crude oil prices. Therefore The probability of a new round of changes in negative value is greater, and the possibility of turning righteousness in the later period does not rule out. "Jin Lianchuang refined oil analyst Ma Jiancai said.

Sun Yamn, an analyst of Zhongyu Information, told Celestial Finance reporter: "In the market, internationally, economic performance will continue to suppress multi -head confidence, which may lead to the continued correction The shortage of sexual shortage has not changed substantially, and the probability of continuing a large decline is low. It is expected that a new round of price adjustment is expected to be narrow up. "

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