In the first August, my country's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 10.1% year -on -year

On September 7, the General Administration of Customs announced the foreign trade data in the first August this year. According to statistics, in the first eight months of this year, my country's total import and export value of 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.2%; imports were 11.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%; the trade surplus was 3.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.2%.

Source of data: Wind, Caixin Research Institute, Western Securities R & D Center Yang Jing map photo picture web map

Li Kuiwen, director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, in the face of a complex and severe foreign trade development environment, my country's efficient coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, continue to introduce a series of policies for stabilizing foreign trade, promote foreign trade to stabilize the market, expand the trend, increase the trend, increase the trend, increase vitality. The growth rate of import and export in the first eight months reached 10.1%, achieving a stable growth.

Export growth rate fell in August

Although the import and export of my country's imports and exports maintained a double -digit growth in the first eight months, the performance of the monthly exports in August fell from July. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in August, the total value of my country's imports and exports was 3.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%. Among them, exports were 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%; imports were 1.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the trade surplus was 535.91 billion yuan, an increase of 40.4%.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the decline in export growth in August was first related to the upsurge of the export growth rate in the same period last year. The year -on -year growth rate of exports in July 2021 rose to 25.4%in August. In August last year, the growth rate of exports rose, which will inevitably form a certain suppression of exports in August this year.

"Second, the early concentrated outbound effects have basically disappeared in August." Wang Qing said that high -frequency data showed that the annual foreign trade container throughput of the eight major ports in August weakened to 0.1%year -on -year. %, Coastal port foreign trade cargo throughput also decreased from 7%year -on -year to 1%year -on -year.

"Third, in the context of the global economic deceleration, the demand for overseas exported goods may cool down. It can be seen that the PMI index of JP Morgan Chase's global manufacturing industry in August was 50.3%, which was 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. The month is going down, and he is approaching the Rongku balance line. "Wang Qing said.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that foreign trade basically met expectations in the first August. On the one hand, the decline in export growth in August is related to the multiple points of the epidemic. From the recent PMI export order index, the clue can be seen. On the other hand, the European and American economies are not dazzling, which will be weakened and will be transmitted to export data.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, believes that due to the impact of overseas demand to ease the high base last year, my country's export growth rate in August has slowed down. However, the export scale was still higher than the trend level in August, and exports continued to maintain a double -digit growth rate. From the perspective of structure, the export structure of domestic and foreign trade has continued to optimize, and the exports of electromechanical products have maintained high prosperity. At the same time, the export of labor -intensive products reflects that under the environment of overseas high inflation, my country's foreign trade exports are cost -effective, and foreign trade exports are tough.

The steady growth of foreign trade is still tough

Although the risks facing foreign trade have increased significantly and the pressure of foreign trade has increased, the performance of foreign trade imports and exports in the first eight months still has many highlights.

According to customs statistics, in the first eight months, ASEAN was the largest trading partner in my. I have a total trade value of 4.09 trillion yuan with ASEAN, an increase of 14%, accounting for 15%of our total foreign trade value. The European Union is my second largest trading partner. I have a total trade value of 3.75 trillion yuan with the EU, an increase of 9.5%, accounting for 13.7%. The United States is my third largest trading partner. The total value of Sino -US trade is 3.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%, accounting for 12.3%. South Korea is my fourth largest trading partner. The total value of China and South Korea is 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%, accounting for 5.9%.

During the same period, my country ’s total imports and exports to countries along the“ Belt and Road ”were 8.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.2%. Among them, exports were 4.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.4%; imports were 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 20%.

Bai Ming told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the growth rate of imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” countries is significantly higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. Essence "On the other hand, the dividend after RCEP's landing is effective. Although the release of the RCEP dividend is a slow process, the expectations for enterprises are good."

Bai Ming further stated that despite the increase in foreign trade growth in the second half of the year, with the implementation of a series of foreign trade and corporate relief policies, the further release of the potential of economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN, the steady growth of foreign trade is still strong.

Li Kuiwen pointed out that in recent years, my country has unswervingly promoted the high -quality development of the "Belt and Road" for co -construction of the "Belt and Road", and its trade with countries along the route has grown rapidly. In August, the import and export of the country along the route increased by 23.8%year -on -year, and the overall import and export increased by 6.9 percentage points.

Wang Qing believes that the decline in imports in August is low, which is related to the increase in bases in the same period of the previous year. Recently, the price of international commodities has generally declined, which will also have a certain drop -down effect on the growth rate of imports.It is expected that the domestic economy will maintain a momentum, but the possibility of great expansion of import demand is less likely. In addition, the price of international commodities will have a downward trend. In the future, the import growth rate will maintain a low level of volatility.Daily Economic News

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