Red Star Observation ｜ This year's first batch of central pork reserves began to be launched on the 8th. Will the price of pork on the Mid -Autumn Festival fall?

On September 6, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would put the first batch of central frozen pork reserves on September 8 this year, and instructed to increase pork reserves in various places in recent times. The notice stated that the central frozen pork reserve was to effectively ensure the supply and price of the festival pork markets such as Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day and National Day.

After the news was released, the price of ternary and ternary pigs in China decreased slightly.

According to data raising data center data, on September 6, the price of pigs (three yuan) nationwide in the country was 23.66 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs (inner three yuan) was 23.10 yuan/kg. After the National Development and Reform Commission will clearly put the frozen pork reserves on September 8, on September 7, the price of pigs (three yuan) nationwide in the country was 23.60 yuan/kg, and the price of pig (inner three yuan) was 23.03 per kilogram. Yuan/kg, decreased by 0.07 yuan per kilogram. (Note: outer ternary and inner three yuan are two types of pigs with different hybrid methods and different market breeding methods.)

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission also stated that at present, local pork reserves and release work in Guangxi, Sichuan, Jilin, Ningxia, Hunan and other places have started, and other provinces are also having the preparation of pork reserves. In the next step, the state will pay close attention to the dynamics of the pig market, and then further increase the efforts of reserves. It is recommended that breeding (field) households maintain a normal rhythm of the column, and related enterprises will release pork commercial inventory in an orderly manner to ensure market demand.

Since March this year, in less than 100 days, the state has launched 11 batches of frozen pork collection and storage. On September 8th, the first batch of storage and landing this year, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to continue to make more storage movements within the month.

For more frozen pork into the market, will the pork on the table cheaper? Why is the country's freezing pork reserve? At this point in September 8? Red Star News interviewed Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Agricultural Economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, Tong Wei, Minister of the Propaganda Department of Xinfang, and the first -line practitioners of pork retail.

↑ Liaoning Dalian Reserve Meat Point Stall owner is dividing pork. Picture according to IC Photo

▶▶ Is the meat price cheaper after the market is stored in the market?

The person in charge of the market in Beijing Xinfa:

The overall meat price is bound to decline, and the influence on the price of fresh meat is "not too great"

On September 7, the first day of the central frozen pork storage time, the prices of ternary and outer ternary pigs in the country declined slightly, but the specific situations in various places were slightly different.

Taking Beijing as an example, the price of pigs in some areas fell higher than the national level. On September 7, the price of Beijing pigs (three yuan) was 23.16 yuan/kg, and a decrease of 0.28 yuan per kilogram; the price of pigs (inner three yuan) was 22.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan per kilogram; 21.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.62 yuan per kilogram.

However, there are also regions represented by Liaoning Province, and the price of pigs will not rise. On September 7, the price of ternary pigs, the price of the three yuan, and the prices of native pigs ranging from 0.08 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.05 yuan per kilogram of the price of the ternary pigs, and the prices of native pigs raw pigs ranging from Liaoning Province.

The price of pigs has risen and declined, and the overall decline has fallen slightly. However, according to the latest news from China Pig Raising Network, the stock price of many listed pig companies has changed significantly.

On the morning of September 5th, Hua Chu.com issued the "Notice on the Related Matters of the Central Reserved Frozen Pork Store on September 8, 2022". The notice stated that the bidding transaction of the outbound was 37,700 tons, and the transaction time was from 13:00 to 16:00 on September 8th.

According to the news of China, as soon as the news came out, the stock price of many listed pig companies fell. According to the news of China Raising Pig.com, many people in the industry said that based on the long pig cycle of pig prices last year, pig prices continued to bottom out. The new round of pig cycle price fluctuations are generally narrowed, thanks to the early intervention of pig price policy.

It is worth noting that the price of pigs does not go to the consumer market to buy pork on the consumer market. Tong Wei, Minister of the Propaganda Department of the Shin -Fang Market, told Red Star Journalists that taking the market for Xinfa as an example, as the "meat case" of the capital of about 25%of the market share, the newly -in -land markets are all tender pork, and also It's fresh meat.

In Tong Wei's view, after the state puts the frozen pork reserve to adjust the price, the overall pork price will inevitably decline, but it may not have a lot of impact on the price of fresh meat in the Shinafat market. For example, Tong Wei said: "Restaurant kitchen meat may be frozen pork, but ordinary people make a green pepper shredded pork on their own table, which is basically the two channels for buying such fresh meat on the Shinfa Market." This is two channels. "

Retaiders who operate pork stalls in Guangdong, Liaoning, Guizhou and other places told Red Star journalists that in the years of pork retail experience, they will not take the initiative to pay attention to the news and policies of pork collection, storage and storage. "The price of pork has always risen or declined, and the price of collection and storage has not felt the price of our selling (pork). . "A Liaoning pork stall owner told Red Star Journalist.

↑ September 6th Pork Price According to pig farming data center

▶▶ Why do you put frozen pork reserves?

The price of pigs has continued to rise in half a year

The price of pig pigs in September is doubled in March

On September 6, before the storage time of the central frozen pork was clear, the national pig price announced by the pig farming data center was still rising. Throughout the year, the price of pigs has risen many times since the price of pigs "bottomed out" in April. Taking the data of September 6, published by the Pig data center as an example, the price of the national pig (three yuan) on September 6 is 23.66 yuan per kilogram, which is more than double the low point in March this year.

Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told Red Star Journalists that in terms of food, the price of pork fell by 6.0%year -on -year from June to rising from July to rising from June to rising from June. 20.2%, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the pork market, the central pork storage is due.

In addition to pork prices, there are also overall domestic prices facing the pressure of growth. Su Jian is expected to be 3%in the second half of the year, and the central center is about 2.2%.

On August 26, the Journalism Office of the State Council held a routine briefing meeting of the State Council to introduce the relevant situation of the people in need. At the blower, Yang Yinkai, deputy secretary -general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that due to factors such as input inflation pressure and the seasonal rise of pork prices, the low base effect was superimposed in the same period last year. A little higher a month. Especially due to the impact of the epidemic and disaster conditions, the number of people in difficulties has increased, and basic life may face greater pressure. Even if domestic prices have not increased, the feelings of people in difficulties may be obvious.

Since July, the National Development and Reform Commission has begun plans to store storage. On July 5th, the official WeChat public account of the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in response to the recent irrational behavior such as blind selling fences in the pig market, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission was studying the launch of the central pork reserves, and guided the local area to jointly put the placement of reserves in a timely manner to form formed Regulating the joint force to prevent the price of pigs from rising excessively.

The above news states that in response to the recent rapid rise in pig prices, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has organized industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to hold a meeting. According to the analysis of the relevant parties, the important reason for the recent rapid rise in domestic pigs is that the market has irrational pressure fences and secondary fattening. Some media, especially self -media, fabricate and spread the price increase information, rendered the price increase atmosphere. In the short term, in the short term Exhausting the market's mood.

At the end of August, the National Development and Reform Commission officer Wei released news again that it would put in batches of government pork reserves in batches from September, and instructed local linkage to place reserves.

On September 6, the National Development and Reform Commission made clear that the first storage time was September 8th, and it will be stored again within the month.

Wang Zuli, an associate researcher at the Agricultural Economy and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told Red Star Journalists that, in view of the strong operation of meat prices and pig prices some time ago, the state would worry about the rise in prices too fast and put a certain pressure on CPI. "It is still necessary to relieve the market's emotions by reserving meat."

↑ September 7th Pork Price According to pig farming data center

▶▶ Why is it selected on September 8th?

Study at the beginning of the Mid -Autumn Festival

Push the price of pork before the holiday

The impact of the "pre -holiday effect" on the price of pork cannot be ignored. A week ago, the official website of Beijing Xinfa Earth released the news that the price of white pigs began to rise again this week. In the early week of the week, meat prices shown a fluctuating trend, and the increase was relatively obvious. Some people can find more reasons or reasons for the rise of this wave of meat prices, but the first reason to summarize is: near the school and the Mid -Autumn Festival, the demand is restored, and the price shows the festival effect.

According to the official website of Xinfa, the so -called festival effect is basically near festivals, solar terms, or certain specific time nodes. The demand shows a phased increase. A certain pull effect. "However, the festival effect is sometimes effective. After this time, the price of meat will be attributed to the normal state. This wave of meat price rises is actually some performances on this time node." Essence

Wang Zuli told the Red Star News reporter that it was normal operation at this time. "For pork, the second half of the year is the peak season of consumption. The Mid -Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday effect will also drive up prices. In fact, the price increase is actually within the expected. Normal operation. "

In addition to the Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, the holiday time of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival is often an important time point for the state to store pork storage.

For example, in January 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in order to better guarantee the needs of residents' pork consumption during the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival in 2021, since December 17, 2020, the central frozen pork reserves have been listed for a total of 150,000 tons, which has an effective increase Market supply. Some places also put local freezing pork in the terminal market, which is welcomed by consumers.

In January 2020, the relevant person in charge of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in an interview with a media that in order to do a good job in the pork market during the New Year's Day Spring Festival, it has been organized on December 12, 2019.Put the frozen pork reserves, and have been put in 6 batches, totaling about 150,000 tons.Most provinces and cities across the country have also been launched in conjunction with the local market situation.Through the intensive and intensive densely put in frozen pork reserve, the supply of pork market has been added, which effectively stabilizes market expectations, and the pork market price is relatively stable.Red Star reporter Wu Yang Intern reporter Wang Chenyuan Beijing report

Responsible Editor Ren Zhijiang Editor Guo Zhuang

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