[East Looking and West] Experts: Do not take "RMB 7" as the key point of depreciation

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 7th (Song Yafen) The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is constantly approaching the "7" mark. On September 7, the exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 6.99 yuan, depreciated by 200 points within the day, and the RMB in the shore fell below 6.97.

In fact, as the people have recently fallen below the US dollar exchange rate to 6.9, the attention of when the RMB breaks "7" has been rising. On September 7, the "offshore RMB to the US dollar fell below 6.99 yuan" and also appeared on the hot search.

Broken "7" is the key to the depreciation of the renminbi?

Regarding the "7" point of the offshore people's exchange rate "7", Tan Yaling, an independent economist of the Chinese Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, bluntly stated in an interview with China New Jingwei, "it is not particularly practical."

Tan Yaling analyzed that first of all, the "7" pass has repeatedly appeared in the past two years, and this expectation is still very important with the guidance of speculation. Secondly, there is no evidence to prove that "7" is a key point.

CITIC Securities Joint Chief Economist also has a similar point of view. He said that the fluctuations of the exchange rate in the complicated international situation should be treated rationally. Since the beginning of this year, other non -US currencies have depreciated sharply, and the relative performance of the renminbi is not bad.

It is obviously explained that the recent depreciation or excessive depreciation of the renminbi reflects the influence of the Fed's high inflation and the European energy crisis. Therefore, in the context of a strong US dollar, it is not so important to break the key point of the RMB exchange rate.

Tan Yaling also said that the offshore RMB exchange rate for the US dollar is not very valuable for foreign -related companies. The enterprise should pay more attention to the central price of the RMB against the US dollar issued by the central bank.

In addition, Tan Yaling emphasized that China ’s foreign exchange has a strong management. It has previously announced that it has lowered September 15 to reduce the reserve rate of foreign exchange deposits by financial institutions by 2 percentage points, mainly in order to strengthen the liquidity of the foreign exchange market and reduce the pressure of RMB depreciation. Because the Federal Reserve ’s probability will announce interest rate hikes on September 22, this is also a very forward -looking regulation.

Is the disadvantage of RMB devaluation?

Although it does not need to pay too much attention to the "7" point, the depreciation of the RMB will still have some impact on China.

Yang Panpan, deputy director of the International Financial Research Office of the Institute of Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to Zhongxin Jingwei that from the perspective of exports, the devaluation of the renminbi can enhance the competitiveness of China's export products. In terms of import, companies may suffer certain losses. In addition, the cost will increase for international students or those who have foreign service payment.

However, it is clearly believed that at present, the role of RMB depreciation to create exports may not be great, because exporters face more pressure on external needs.

In addition, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the International Trade Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in fact, the impact of exchange rates on import and export trade must not only depend on the nominal exchange rate, but also depend on the actual effective exchange rate. The year -on -year increase in the domestic consumption price index of consumer prices was recently high. The benefits of the depreciation of the name exchange rate of the RMB have not been disabled by domestic prices.

Bai Ming emphasized that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is actually a double -edged sword. Exporting companies increase their income by depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but if too much imported raw materials and components are used, it is likely to increase expenditure due to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

In terms of finance, it is clearly believed that whether the inversion of the spread between China and the United States is further deepened or the short -term pressure of the RMB will be constrained by domestic monetary policy. For capital flows, the RMB is weak and the pressure on foreign capital outflows on the two cities of stock bonds may continue.

For some export companies, it is clearly suggested that the exchange rates can be closely focused on the changes in the exchange rate, and the exchange income is to maximize the exchange of foreign exchange. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

This article is original by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, and the copyright of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may be reprinted, extract or use in other ways.

Editor in charge: Sun Qingyang

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