Fengkou Think Tank | Interview with Li Xunlei: The real estate industry may promote China's economic transformation

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

With the repeated crown epidemic, the geopolitical conflict has intensified, and the high inflation of major economies has remained high, what trends will the world economic development show? What opportunities and challenges China are facing? How to deal with it? On September 7, at the 2022 capital market strategy meeting held by Zhongtai Securities, Li Xunlei, chief economist of China Thailand Securities and executive dean of the research institute, accepted an exclusive interview with Fengkou Finance.

Li Xunlei believes that the future trend of the global economy is still low growth and high shocks, and the possibility of a large economic recession will not be ruled out. In this trend, my country still needs to stabilize the economic market, promote reform, adjust structure, increase independent innovation, promote promotion Consumption upgrade and expand domestic demand.

The global economy may fall further next year

"I am thinking about the future trend of the global economy in 2018. My logic is that it has been 77 years since World War II to the present." Li Xunlei believes that during the 77 years, the relationship between man and nature has occurred. Great changes, the relationship between the country has also changed dramatically, and the relationship between people has also changed dramatically. These three major changes have led to the serious distortion of the global socio -economic structure today. The imbalances and disadvantages between the country and the country and the people are endless, and the differences of differences and even hostile emotions are becoming more and more obvious.

Judging from the global perspective, Li Xunlei believes that taking the relationship between people and nature as an example, until the end of World War II, the population has continued to expand. The expected life expectancy is significantly extended, and the number of births in the peace environment has increased significantly. Therefore, the scale of the population has increased significantly. Human beings must occupy more land and more resources to maintain the population reproduction and development. Showing. In addition, the current world conflicts, including the continuous trade and financial warfare, and the continuity of the epidemic, have also affected the global industrial chain and supply chain problems, which has caused inflation. The gap between the rich and the poor is large, the class solidification, and the development opportunities of young people have decreased. The balance sheet of residents' families is also facing a shrinkage, and the social contradictions have further intensified.

Li Xunlei said in an interview with the wind and finance that the current global economy has declined, and inflation is a big cause, and inflation is high, mainly in three aspects. The first is the impact of the epidemic. This is also a long -term factor. Since 2020, the epidemic has been spreading globally. It has lasted for three years. In the process, the global industrial chain and supply chain have been greatly affected; The second reason is the conflict of Russia and Ukraine. This is a new variable this year. This new variable has further exacerbated the rise in energy and grain prices such as oil, natural gas, and food prices. Come to the global currency super -issuing related, "The global currency over -issuing in the past did not cause inflation, but it caused rising asset prices. Now that the global economy has declined, asset prices have fallen, and the demand can be in the field of commodity."

Li Xunlei said that the global economic growth is expected to be around 3%, and the global economy may fall further next year.

Fengkou Financial reporter interviewed Li Xunlei, chief economist of China -Thailand Securities and executive dean of the Research Institute.

Macro policies will be more targeted

Since the beginning of this year, my country's economic development has faced demand shrinkage, impact on supply, and expected weakened triple pressure, and the foundation of economic recovery is unstable. The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 28 that macro policies should actively actively act in expanding demand. The fiscal monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social demand. Looking forward to the second half of the year, what are the efforts of my country's macro policies?

In Li Xunlei's view, my country's growth goal this year is to stabilize the economic market. Stabilizing the market does not mean that it must reach 5.5%of the goal. It is possible to reduce appropriately. However, the most important thing is whether the price is stable and the employment rate can be in a reasonable range. These two aspects are currently realized. Therefore, as long as economic growth is maintained in a reasonable range, moderate downwardness is acceptable.

From the perspective of macro policies, Li Xunlei believes that it is necessary to pay more attention to structural issues. Policies may be more orientated and solve some outstanding problems in a targeted manner. For example, the growth rate of real estate investment has fallen sharply, which has increased the debt burden of real estate development enterprises, the willingness to invest in manufacturing enterprises, and the cash flow deteriorates. "Therefore, the macro policy exertion point must be more targeted to solve some local problems. First of all, the level of fiscal deficit rate is maintained within the goal set at the beginning of this year. Loans, especially loans investing in infrastructure construction, will further increase. "Li Xunlei said.

Data show that in the first half of the year, 6.54 million new employment in cities and towns across the country, with an average unemployment rate of urban survey of cities and towns; the population survey rates of population aged ages aged 16-24 and 259 were 19.3%and 4.5%, respectively. Generally speaking, the employment situation in my country in the second quarter generally showed a trend of improvement, but the problem of high employment pressure for young people was still prominent.

Li Xunlei believes that the employment of young people in China is more severe, and it must also attract enough attention. In encouraging entrepreneurship and increasing employment support, more policies are tilted.

At present, European and American countries are "exploded", and China will face input inflation pressure. With the advent of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters, food prices have risen, domestic inflation levels may further increase, will it cause constraints on macroeconomic policies? "I am not very worried about inflation, because China itself is a large manufacturing country. Our export goods in the world account for 16%, far exceeding other countries, indicating that the entire domestic capacity is sufficient and even faces pressure from excess capacity. "Li Xunlei believes that the current domestic inflation is controllable, and the main factor that causes inflation is food prices, especially the rise in pork prices. In the second half of the year, the CPI may exceed 3%, but it should still be maintained at about 2.5%throughout the year. Promote consumption.

The real estate industry may promote China's economic transformation

Some analysts believe that the real estate industry is one of the largest variables in the second half of the Chinese economy. Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economic Economic Comprehensive Statistics, said at the press conference of the National Economic Operations in July that in general, the real estate market shows a downward trend, and the current overall stage is at the bottom. On August 24, presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy a policy measure of a policy of stabilizing the economy, consolidating the foundation of economic recovery development, allowing local "one city, one policy" to flexibly use credit and other policies, reasonably support rigid and improved housing demand for housing demand Essence

Li Xunlei believes that the problem of the real estate industry should pull the time longer. This round of real estate rising cycle lasted for more than two decades. The growth rate of real estate investment has decreased ten years ago, and sales and sales area will be reduced accordingly.

"The entire real estate cycle is constrained by two aspects, one is the acceleration of the aging population in China, which is also foreseeable. The infant tide that appeared before has entered the stage of ebb. The increase in the proportion will have a profound impact on the long -term demand of the real estate industry. The second factor is that the process of urbanization in China has begun to slow, which also adversely affects real estate. "Li Xunlei said.

Li Xunlei believes that real estate can not be expected to build a bottom in the short term. It may face a period of adjustment for more than ten years. This process will also help China's economic transformation. "The Chinese economy has rely on investment for a long time, and it will slowly move towards consumption in the future. For the Chinese economy, it is necessary to bear downward pressure in the short term. Innovation and other aspects are very promising. "

Speaking of transformation, Li Xunlei said that China's economic structure adjustment is not achieved overnight. It is a long -term process and needs to be adjusted. First of all, in the troika, it is necessary to increase domestic consumption, which is a great opportunity for manufacturing, especially some advanced manufacturing industries. "For example, using new energy to replace traditional energy, it is a powerful promotion for the new energy industry. Traditional fuel vehicles are slowly eliminated and replaced by new energy vehicles. Consumers get more comfort and sense of gain. "

He said that with the aging trend of population, the use of robotics will increase significantly, and the diversified service needs of the service industry will be further improved. This is the opportunity brought by the economic transformation process. "It is a stage of coexistence of risks and opportunities at any time. We must seize the opportunity to avoid downward risks."

- END -