Global Financial connection ｜ In the first eight months of the first 8 months of my country's imports and exports increased by 10.1%year -on -year.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shi Shi Shi Shi Shanghai report

General Administration of Customs: In the first 8 months, my country's import and export increased by 10.1% year -on -year

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs today, in the first eight months of this year, the total value of my country's import and export value was RMB 2.73 trillion, a year -on -year increase of 10.1%. In August, the total value of my country's imports and exports was 3.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%year -on -year. How to interpret the foreign trade data in August? What is the expected follow -up trend? We came to connect to Zheng Houcheng, director of the Institute of British Securities.

my country maintains a high growth rate of imports and exports to ASEAN and EU

Zheng Houcheng: In August, the export amount recorded 7.10%year -on -year, which was 10.90 percentage points from the previous value. There are two points of factors facing the export amount in August. First, Morgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI has fallen sharply and approached the Glory Line. At the same time, JP Morgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI new orders are located under the Rongku Line for 2 consecutive months, and continue under the Rongku Line. Detective indicates that global demand enters a contraction state, and the export amount of Lisaki August was year -on -year. Second, the same period of the same period in 2021, the export amount of Likong August was year -on -year. There were two favorable factors facing the export amount in August. First, the August CRB index went up slightly in the same month of the month, and formed marginal Limado for the month -on -month export amount. Second, on the basis of continuous devaluation in April to July, the August RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate, and the amount of Lido exports was year-on-year.

From the perspective of trading partners, in August, the import and export of major trading partners such as ASEAN and the European Union maintained a higher growth rate; from the perspective of product structure, the number of copper and copper materials that had not been forged in August not only maintained a high -speed growth, but also created a record, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creative increase, but also created a creature. Since November 2020, a new high, in August, the number of imports of automotive and car chassis returned to the positive growth range after 12 months.

The export amount in September was year -on -year or under pressure from the month of the month

Zheng Houcheng: Looking forward to September, at the Jackson Hall Annual Conference, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech has a strong "eagle" color. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in 75 basis points in September. The year -on -year recorded 9.10%, setting a new high since January 1997. It is expected that the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates significantly. In this context, we believe that September Morgan Chase global manufacturing PMI will continue to undergo downward and fall down and fall down. Break Rongku Line, the September CRB index was year -on -year, and from the perspective of quantity and price, the export amount for September formed a year -on -year profit. In terms of bases, the exports in August and September 2021 recorded 25.41%and 27.93%year -on -year, and the base was slightly upward in September exports. For the fact that the export growth rate in September, the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate from April to August. In summary, under the downward increase, downward price growth, and upward at the base of the quantity, the export amount is expected to undergo a high probability of pressing the month in September.

U.S. stocks closing the entire line to the seven consecutive declines

Before the opening of U.S. stocks, let's review the dynamics of overnight US stocks. As of the closing of the 6th, the Dow fell 0.55%, the S & P 500 index fell 0.41%, the Nasda Index fell 0.74%, the Nasda Index had fallen for 7 consecutive trading days, and the cumulative decline was nearly 9%. For the analysis of the US stock market, we came to connect Zhang Jingjing, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities R & D Center.

U.S. stock adjustment is in line with the laws of political cycle

"Global Finance and Economics": The Nasdaq has fallen for seven days, the longest decline since November 2016. What are the main reasons for the adjustment of US stocks in this round? How long will the US stock "grind the bottom" be expected to last?

Zhang Jingjing: The performance of overseas assets this year is surprising. It stands to reason that U.S. stocks are better assets in the world and generally do not have huge adjustments.

But a very interesting logic is that the U.S. stocks are actually very "politics". We find that two years before each president takes office, there will always be an annual US stock market. Only Obama is lucky because he has already been in 2008 before he took office. The waist is cut, so there is a low base.

Why is there such a characteristic?

The United States is basically alternating between the two parties, and this alternation means that after the new president came to power, its policy will have huge directional changes, impact on the economy, and naturally affect asset prices. Last year, U.S. stocks did not fall, and this year was the second year of Biden's taking office, so this year's adjustment seems to meet the laws of political cycle.

If the analysis of the larger economic dimension, when will US stocks fall more than 20%? There are generally two cases:

The first is that when the valuation is very large, the monetary policy may be tightened, such as the Nasdaq bubble burst. The average P / E ratio (CAPE) of the S & P 500, that is, the peak of the P / E ratio of the 10 -year cycle, was 44 times. When the Fed's monetary policy began to tighten, we saw huge adjustments in the S & P 500.

The second is that when the performance is declining, such as the stage of economic slowdown, recession, or stagnation, U.S. stocks will have relatively large adjustments.

U.S. stocks may have entered the "last fall"

Zhang Jingjing: These two situations are happening this year.

On the one hand, the CAPE of the S & P 500 has reached 39 times before adjusting. Although it is still a long distance compared to 44 times before the Nasdaq foam is broken, according to the definition of CAPE creator Robert Hiller, CAPE CAPE There are bubbles more than 25 times, so 39 times are not low.

On the other hand, from last year to this year, the Fed has gradually tightened the monetary policy. From last year, TAPER began to raise interest rates in March this year. It is close to 3.5%, and now returns to the level of 3.3%and 3.4%. There will be a "kill valuation" on the way. In the first and second quarters of this year, the annual annual rate of the US economy was negatively increased. Although it was okay, the US economy should be worse than the first half of the year in the third quarter or the second half of the year. In the case of a relatively expected financial report in the second quarter, everyone may currently respond to low expectations in the third quarter financial report.

But I think US stocks may indeed enter the "last fall".

Because in fact, if we take the S & P 500 as an example before the US stock adjustment in the fourth quarter of 2018, the risk premium is close to 0. That is to say, at that time, the US stocks did not have a "safe pad" at that time. Significantly adjust. After falling out of the "safe pad", the decline of risk -free interest rates can usher in a valuation repair rebound.

At present, the risk premium of the S & P 500 is also around 0, and it also needs to fall out of a "safe pad". Anyone who can fall to 10%or more. After there is a "safe pad", coupled with the economic slowdown, it may usher in no. The decline in risk rates, we believe that US stocks may have a phased decline, and the window may be around September-October this year.

The final value of GDP in the euro zone in the second quarter of GDP was 4.1% year -on -year

In the second quarter of the euro zone, the final value of GDP was 4.1%year -on -year, with an expected 3.90%, and the previous value was 3.90%. What kind of severe challenges are facing the current European economy, can it avoid falling into recession? Will there be concerns about recession affect the interest rate resolution of the European Bank of China? Let's listen to the interpretation of Yang Chengyu, an associate researcher at the European Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The European economy faces multiple shocks

Yang Chengyu: Europe is currently facing multiple impacts such as the new crown pneumonia, the Russian -Ukraine conflict, the supply chain, and the energy supply. Among them, the biggest challenge for the European economy comes from severe inflation. The European Union has initiated 6 rounds of economic sanctions on Russia. Russia's interrupted exports to European energy, especially natural gas. Europe itself has a higher dependence on Russia's energy. Suddenly disconnecting a serious energy crisis in Europe.

We see that Europe is facing the worst inflation since the 1980s. On the one hand, the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to tight energy supply in Europe, which directly leads to rising energy prices in Europe; on the other hand, the high energy prices are transmitted as higher production costs and passed on to the final products and services. Commodity and service prices. Especially for European manufacturing, energy is the main component of manufacturing costs. The rise in prices has suppressed the production of advantageous manufacturing such as chemical industry, automobiles, and machinery, leading to the decline in the competitive export of European manufacturing. The trade deficit in Germany in August is an example.

In addition to energy factors, there is also an impact of global supply chain interruption. Since the epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the European supply chain has been in a state of tight supply of raw materials and intermediate products, and the Russian -Ukraine conflict has accelerated this trend. High -inflation directly leads to the increase in the downside risks of the European economy.

The risk of European economic recession is amplifying

Yang Chengyu: The risk of European economic recession is amplifying. In order to avoid the decline of the European economy, there are two main actions in Europe worth paying attention to.

The first is to deal with the energy crisis. European countries are responding to the current energy crisis through measures such as hoarding crude oil inventory, diversification of energy sources, and accelerated renewable energy transformation.

The second is to implement a tightening monetary policy. In order to suppress inflation, the European Central Bank has adjusted monetary policy since July this year. The first is to end the new crown pneumonia epidemic plan (PEPP), long -term directional re -financing operation (TLTRO III), and public sector purchase plan (PSPP) and other width plans. The second is to start several rounds of interest rate hike operations.

It is expected that the European Central Bank will have two to three rate hikes this year

Yang Chengyu: As the price of European energy and power is still rising, inflation has not yet been seen. It is expected that the Central Bank of China will have two to three interest rate hikes this year. However, the influence of interest rate hikes on the economy, as well as the issue of debt repayment costs for pushing members of member states, and amplifying the risk of sovereignty debt, it is also a consideration factor for the European Central Bank to earnestly raise interest rates.

(The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. The opinions of the guests on this show only represent their own opinions.)

Planning: Yu Xiaona

Produced: Shi Shi

Editor -in -chief: Du Hongyu and Jia Zhao Yue Li Yinong

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