Chang Ran: In August, China's export decline mainly due to overseas demand and weakened

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 7th.

Author Chang Ran Zhixin Investment Research Institute senior researcher

In August 2022, China's import and export growth rates fell significantly. According to customs statistics, according to the US dollar, the year -on -year growth rate of exports fell to 7.1%, and the growth rate of imports was still low, and the record increased by 0.3%, and the trade surplus shrink to $ 79.39 billion.

The significant decline in China's export growth in August confirmed that we weakly cash out under the influence of overseas interest rate hikes. However, there are also no lack of support factors. RCEP ("Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement") The contribution of the Middle -Eastern Union's contribution to China's exports is becoming more significant.

The main reason for China's exports is the weakening of overseas demand. The comprehensive, new orders and manufacturing indexes of the global PMI (purchasing manager index) have decreased compared with the previous value. U.S. inflation data temporarily falling does not represent the inflection point of the Fed's monetary policy. Under its support for strong non -agricultural agriculture, the Fed still maintains the pace of radical interest rate hikes. In August, the status quo index of the US Michigan consumers decreased by 2.6 percentage points compared with the previous value. Both the production index and the consumer index show the weakening of demand.

However, ASEAN has a significant export of Chinese exports, showing a certain structural highlight. From January to August, ASEAN is China's largest trading partner, an increase of 20.2%year-on-year exports to ASEAN, which is higher than the cumulative export growth rate of other major trading partners.

Insufficient internal demand, the cost pressure of China's imports has led to its weak imports of imports in China. At present, the downward pressure on the domestic economy is still there. High temperature and partial power limit brought uncertainty to the promotion of investment. Social finance and loans reflect the weak level of domestic demand. In view of the current inverted domestic and foreign prices of energy, especially coal, the risk of domestic input -type inflation is still large, and the cost advantage of domestic energy squeezes some import demand to a certain extent.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, exports may show a slow growth rate and coexistence of toughness. About 80 economies in the world have joined the tightening of monetary policy. The liquidity tightening caused by overseas interest rate hikes directly leads to a sharp decline in demand for intermediate products and consumer goods, and the impact of interest rate hikes has a greater impact. In July, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) reduced the global economic growth rate in 2022 to 3.2%, which is the third consecutive decline in the year, which indicates the overall demand level of global economic recession. However, the exports of new energy -related products and the driving in ASEAN may become the support point of China's exports in the fourth quarter. The ASEAN manufacturing PMI expansion for 11 consecutive months, and the economic growth performance is more tough. Under the support of the RCEP framework, ASEAN production expansion and the performance of consumer potential will drive China's export demand growth. The Russian -Ukraine conflict has increased the potential risks of the European energy crisis. Based on the advantages of the new energy industry chain, China will usher in development opportunities in the future. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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