The "Black" commodity price is expected to be adjusted in the second half of the year or maintain the disadvantaged consolidation

Recently, the "black" commodity has ushered in the adjustment market as a whole, and iron ore, coke coal, coke and threaded steel have been adjusted to varying degrees. "Securities Daily" reporter statistics found that as of June 18, many varieties such as iron ore futures have set a new low -time low within the month. The point has fallen to the current 790.5 yuan/ton, and has fallen below 900 yuan/ton, 800 yuan/ton.

For the reasons for the "black" commodity price recovery, many analysts told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the demand was not as good as expected to enter the seasonal off -season, resulting in the "black" commodity price in the entire line of callback models; looking forward to the second half of the year, although there is reduced production, although there is production reduction of production, although there are production reduction reduction, although there are production reductions, although there are production reductions, although there are production reductions, although there are production reductions, although there are production reductions, although there are reduction Factors such as favorable factors, but the demand side is still difficult to improve. It is expected that the "black" commodity will still maintain the trend of disadvantaged consolidation as a whole, but investment opportunities in raw materials may be more than adults.

"Black" commodity price continues to be adjusted

Since June, the "Black" commodity price has entered a decline model as a whole after a short period of time, and the decline has been above 10%. Specifically, the main contract of iron ore futures has fallen from 948 yuan/ton to 790.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.61%; the main force of threaded steel futures 2210 contracts from a high point of 4834 yuan/ton in the month /Ton, a decline of 11.13%; the main force of coking coal futures 2209 contracts from 2958 yuan/ton to the current 2513.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.03%; the main contract of coke futures 2209 has fallen from 3753.5 yuan/ton to the current 3166 yuan/ton now The decline was 15.65%.

The core factors that lead to the weakening of the "black system" commodity are weak demand. "Gu Meng, a senior analyst at the Black Industry Institute of Dongzhi Devices Research Institute, told reporters that since June, the market has always had expectations for demand replenishment, but At present, the recovery of demand is still less than expected, especially in the past two weeks, affected by the rainfall factors in the southern region of my country, the possibility of further weakening demand is still weakening.

After entering May, from the perspective of the "Black" product raw material, due to the high output of steel mills, the demand for raw materials is relatively strong, coking coal and coke inventory are at a historical low. By the level of 3 million tons, the contradiction between supply and demand at the raw material side is relatively relieved, but there are still signs of accumulation. Recently, in the context of lacking demand, the future price of black commodities has ushered in a turn -round tone.

Sheng Wenyu, an analyst at the black system of Jinxin Futures, told reporters that at present, the off -season signs of the exhaustion of the off -season have appeared, and the pressure on steel mills is relatively high. The overall trend of black products has a trend. For example, the risk of marginal weakening in the supply and demand of iron ore is due to the short -term shipping volume and the number of Hong Kong volume. Shining.

Investment opportunities in raw materials

For future investment opportunities, many analysts are optimistic about raw materials, such as iron ore, coking coal and coke, and the investment opportunities of racked materials represented by threads or wires are small.

"Because the terminal demand has no improvement, the pressure on steel inventory is still large." Gu Meng believes that the investment opportunities of raw materials in the "black" commodity in the second half of the year are expected to be more than the rare materials. Regardless of whether the terminal demand or policy reduction, the raw material side will face a decline in demand in the second half of the year. Therefore, the pressure of iron ore and the "double focus" price increase will be greater than the price of steel, and short investment opportunities may be more obvious.

Galaxy Futures is also optimistic about investment -related investment. Relevant persons in the company's black business department believe that the demand for steel in the second half of the year is expected to be weak, and at the same time, the output remains high. The contradiction between supply and demand will continue to accumulate. At that time, the relevant variety prices will be further under pressure, and the opportunities for shorting will be more obvious.

"In the later period, the high probability of iron ore will lead the black product sector." Sheng Wenyu told reporters that the domestic terminal demand will not improve much in the short term, and the upward space of raw materials will be limited. For Chengzheng materials, considering the existing maintenance plan of the steel plant, there may be multiple opportunities for the future of the snails, but the space is relatively small.

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