Whether the RMB will "break the seven" that affects many parties

Reporter Pan Xiaotong ● Shi Xiangnan

According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 6th, the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was 6.9096 yuan, which was reduced by 98 basis points from the previous trading day. The RMB closing on the shore was reported at 6.9485, a decrease of 119 points from the previous trading day. The offshore renminbi fell below the 6.97 mark to the US dollar and continued to swipe new low since August 2020. Some foreign media commented that the RMB exchange rate "6.9" to the US dollar is an important psychological barrier. However, some experts said that although the RMB exchange rate to the US dollar will be "broken 7", there is no need to worry too much.

Bloomberg said on the 5th that China has set up a fixed market price that is higher than expected for 10 consecutive days, which is by far the most important measure to stabilize the RMB. It is reported that Khoon GOH, the Asian research director of Australia and the Bank of New Zealand Group, said that China hopes to slow down the renminbi depreciation. When the RMB exchange rate of the US dollar is close to the psychological barrier, China may take more measures.

On September 5, the People's Bank of China released news that starting from September 15, two percentage points of the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions have been reduced, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio is reduced from the current 8%to 6%. This is the second foreign exchange "reduction" of the People's Bank of China this year. The Wall Street Journal stated that analysts said that the latest reduction will release about $ 19 billion in foreign exchange liquidity to the domestic market. Analysts predict that in the next few months, the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar may reach 7. The last level of offshore and shore was at the end of July 2020.

Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said on Monday that the recent depreciation of the RMB on the US dollar exchange rate was mainly affected by the US overtime monetary policy. He said that the US dollar appreciated by 14.6%this year. Under the background of the appreciation of the US dollar, other reserve currencies in the basket of SDR (special withdrawal rights) have depreciated significantly on the US dollar. The RMB also depreciated by about 8%, but compared with other non -US dollar currencies, the depreciation is the smallest. Liu Guoqiang also said that the long -term trend of the renminbi is clear. In the short term, two -way fluctuations are a normal state and will not appear "unilateral cities."

In an interview with the Chief Economist of Zhixin Investment, Lian Ping said in an interview with the Global Times on the 6th that it does not rule out the possibility of "breaking 7" to the US dollar exchange rate in the future, but there is no need to worry about the significant depreciation of the RMB. "First of all, although the economic downlink pressure is high, the fundamentals of China's economy are stable; secondly, China's trade surplus is still expanding; in the end, the US government has frequently raised interest rates since this year, and it is expected to continue to raise interest rates in the second half of the year. This has led to RMB. The depreciation pressure increases, but the state will comprehensively use various means such as financial and currency to regulate the management of foreign exchange to prevent a large -scale depreciation. "Lian Ping said.

Hu Qimu, chief researcher at the Sinosteel Economic Research Institute, told the Global Times reporter on the 6th that in the context of the strong US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate "breaking 7" will strengthen the psychological expectations of the RMB depreciation, but the foreign exchange rate integer is not the iconic of judging the overall economic situation. Parameters, reference components are not heavy. Hu Qimu believes that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has also occurred in the past two years, but it has returned to the "6" era without a long duration. The exchange rate floating fiercely, excessive depreciation or appreciation is not conducive to economic development.

Lian Ping said that due to the downward pressure of the global economy, external demand will further slow down or even shrink, and the appropriate depreciation of the RMB will have certain benefits, but it must be controlled within the scope of normal fluctuations. Hu Qimu also believes that the decline in the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar is conducive to promoting China's export trade in the short term, but due to the affected by the economic stagnation of the European and American countries, the degree of impact and scope of the depreciation of the renminbi is limited. Therefore, in the short term, it is necessary to ensure the stability of the RMB exchange rate, and in the long run, it is necessary to promote the internationalization of the RMB. ▲

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