The rebound finally came!Can you do a big job?——Doda Investment Notes

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

Today, the decent rebound of the A -share market finally came. Although it was one or two days later than expected, it was better than not to be late. This is the rare unilateral Yangla Zhongyang Line of the SSE Index in the past month. Brothers and sisters should eat meat and soup!

The central bank announced yesterday for its benefits and lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points, boosting market confidence at a critical moment. However, from the performance of the offshore RMB exchange rate today, there may still be pressure in the short term.

With the rise of the market, Da Ge saw a screenshot of a foreign exchange deposit reserve rate adjustment to the high and low point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index today.

From the perspective of the chart, there are three main points in time, respectively on May 31, 2021, December 9, 2021, and April 25, 2022. The first two times were the central bank raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, corresponding to the high level of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. On April 25, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered, and you were the most impressive, because the market was April 27 After seeing the low point, a violent rebound was turned on.

From these data alone, it seems that the height of A shares is significant, but because the amount of data is too small, Da Ge feels that the reference value is not great. As an example of the above round of market bottoms, the rebound of A shares at that time was not because the central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, mainly a series of stable economic policies.

Therefore, the significance of excessive exaggeration to A shares is inappropriate. Dago's understanding is that the market has risen, and the market has no money to make money and the appearance of leading themes in the past half of the month. This is like meeting the right person at the right time, and it feels right.

To understand it from another perspective, funds can buy it for the benefit. This is a good phenomenon. It can be regarded as the beginning of a new round of positive feedback. I hope that this positive feedback can continue to play a positive effect and achieve the effect of the star of the stars.

From the perspective of today's market, when bidding in the early morning, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index gave positive feedback, and opened a slightly high on the 5th moving average of 0.25%. Even the stocks of the board also performed well. The board caused the other indexes to go in the first half of the morning, but after some air fighting, the market finally chose to rise.

In the direction of the prosperity track, except for the slightly weaker performance of the semiconductor, the other sectors are good. Especially the new technical direction of photovoltaic photovoltaic batteries, TOPCON batteries, perovskite batteries, and HJT batteries have all rebounded sharply.

The National Energy Administration announced the "Measures for the Development and Construction of Photovoltaic Power Station (Draft for the Secondary Consultation)". On the whole, it is more flexible than the first draft. It helps to save costs and improve efficiency of power station operations, which is obviously good for the photovoltaic industry.

In this way, my concerns about the horizontal development of track stocks yesterday eliminated. However, for the rebound of track stocks, Da Ge is currently just looking at the rebound, and it is not far from the pressure of rebound.

Taking the power equipment sector as an example, the sector index is the pressure level from August 25th to August 30th. If there is a friend who copied the prosperous track according to Dago's short -term idea the previous two days, this pressure arrived at this pressure. Puts can actively stop profits or partially cut off the position.

It can be seen that the strengthening of the track stocks today has made the market more active, at least not as dead as before. As for the rebound of new energy, whether it is sustainable and there is no answer. If you want to continue to strengthen, let's talk about the pressure first. The CSI 1000 index is also the same as above. What is important to deal is to deal with.

Pleopia is the largest -themed stock of today. As an important basic chemical raw material, it has been widely used in oil, chemical, pesticides, textiles, daily chemical industries. 8000 yuan/ton rose to 10,000 yuan/ton. If you participate in such sectors, you still need to do it first.

As for the port shipping, planting industry and forestry, logistics, and coal that Dago also mentioned before, the trend structure has not been destroyed, and it is still in the normal rhythm. To say, coal has to wait for the opportunity near the low point on August 31. What is more interesting is electricity and chemical raw materials. The former has public business attributes, and the trend remains good; the latter is in a continuous box sideways, and it does not rule out the potential to continue to strengthen.

At the Huawei conference this afternoon, in addition to the release of the Mate50 series, it also brought a series of new products in full scenes, including Matebook E Go two -in -one book, new Huawei Matepad Pro 12.6 -inch version, Huawei family storage, Huawei Smart door lock SE cat eye version, Huawei Sound Joy new color scheme, etc.

A few days before the market speculation, the new theme of satellite communications is mainly based on satellite communication. As a result, the market first crushed the dream of the Lianpan of Huanrui Century, and then poured the leading waveguide shares in advance. So beautiful and smooth.

However, compared with the increase in the number of stocks, it is obvious compared to the previous few days. In the future, we must pay attention to whether it can break the deadlock, and once it appears, it will bring short -term emotional changes. Even if the market transaction amount is not effectively enlarged, the short -term money -making effect will not be too bad. After the news, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "5G Full Connection Factory Construction Guide". The guide pointed out that during the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, 10,000 enterprises were promoted to carry out the construction of a 5G full -connected factory, built 1,000 sorted and distinctive factories, and built 100 benchmark factories. In terms of industry and sectors, telecommunications operators, communications equipment vendors, optical modules, communication module manufacturers, data centers, etc. will benefit.

Based on today's market, Da Ge thinks that the main points are mainly the following:

First of all, the market rebounded strong, but still does not change the pattern. When I was chatting with Dr. Niu on Sunday, I made a very clear prediction on the short -term rebound of the index (see the "emotional can lead the index rebound? Pay attention to these keywords -Daida Daida Dr. Dr. Niu Niu Dr. Niu Niu Dao Niu Dr. Niu Niu Dr. Niu Niu Dan ")). So far, the market trend is more in line with expectations, but as long as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index does not effectively break through the pressure of 3308 points, Dago's qualitative of the market will not change.

Secondly, followed by whether Great Finance can make efforts. Since the Zhongyang Line is a gentle and volume form today, there will be a thorough momentum tomorrow. The former Dago said more clearly about the track stocks. As another important force in the market, it depends on Great Finance.

If the financial stock does not work, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index may fluctuate. If the financial power is restarted, the market will reach the pressure level directly, and there is still a possibility of breakthroughs. In fact, the first method is more favorable. The short -term section rotation differentiation will have a good money -making effect. If continuous pulling Zhongyang will cause the profit to escape too quickly, it will be unfavorable to the continuity of the market.

On the whole, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index recovered the 10 -day moving average today. However, the track stocks and the large market are not far from the pressure level, and the space is limited. Can the pressure level unknown at present? Therefore, it is treated with short -term ideas first.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

- END -