Experts forecast: August of the year -on -year increase of CPIs in CPI will maintain a decline in the year -on -year increase in PPI

On September 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will release data from the National CPI (Residents' Consumption Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Factory Price Index) in August. A number of experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily predict that the year -on -year increase in CPI in August will end the rapid upward trend in the previous two months; PPI will remain down year -on -year.

The price situation continues to maintain basic stability

Judging from the previous value, in July, CPI rose 2.7%year -on -year, and PPI rose 4.2%year -on -year.

"In terms of CPI, the rise in pork and vegetables in August has risen significantly, and the price of gasoline and diesel prices has continued to reduce, and other goods and service prices have not changed significantly. Therefore, in August, CPI is expected to remain at about 2.8%year -on -year, which is basically the same as last month, so End the rapid trend of the two months before. "Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters of the Securities Daily that considering the current supply and demand trend of the goods and service markets, the core CPI of the deduction of food and energy prices in August will be deducted from food and energy prices. Continue to be at a low level of about 1.0%, which means that the overall price situation in the short term will continue to be basically stable.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that it is expected that the difference between CPI and PPI scissors in August is further narrowed, and the CPI has gone to about 2.9%year -on -year.

From the perspective of price trend, Zhou Maohua said that the rising price of extreme weather and some upstream raw materials continued to disturb the domestic price trend. Measures continue to make efforts, have good industrial foundations, and maintain stable monetary policy, etc., and ensure that the prices are basically stable.

In terms of PPI, Wang Qing said that in August, international crude oil prices fell, driving the overall low price of international commodities, and domestic coal and other industrial raw materials for preserving stable prices were also increasing. As a result, in addition to some metals in August, the prices of main production data generally declined. This will drive the increase in the price of industrial products for nearly 9 months. It is expected that the PPI will be about 3.2%year -on -year in August, a narrowing of 1 percentage point from July.

"It is expected that the PPI in August is slow to slow to about 3.0%, mainly due to the ups and downs of energy and commodity prices. At the same time, due to the high base of last year, it has promoted PPI to slow down further year -on -year." Zhou Maohua said.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Langlian Federation, said that it is expected that the PPI will continue to decline from the previous month in August but the decline may narrow, and the year -on -year increase will continue to fall.

"The increase in PPI during the year is expected to continue the decline, and it does not rule out the possibility of a year -on -year negative growth at the end of the year. This will also be a positive factor in which the downstream enterprise cost pressure and economic restoration will also be a positive factor in helping the price situation to maintain the overall stability in the future. "Wang Qing said.

Make every effort to keep a stable price

The Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching. The consumption of people's livelihood products such as pork, grain and oil entered a peak period, and various places have introduced measures and stability measures. For example, on September 2nd, the Jinan Development and Reform Commission organized a working conference to hold important livelihood commodities for stability and price, requiring to strengthen market price monitoring and early warning, and analyze and judge the price trend in advance. The people's livelihood products such as food, oil, meat, eggs, and vegetables necessary for the basic life of the people, strengthen the supervision of price illegal behaviors, continue to punch strikes, and make every effort to maintain the market price order and stability.

Talking about what measures should be taken in order to further stabilize prices, Wang Qing said that considering the current upsurge of the pig cycle, in order to avoid the sharp rise in pork prices to promote the rapid rise of CPIs, local governments can consider staged pork reserves. At the same time, in the future, the scale of pork imports can also be appropriately increased to alleviate the pressure on supply and demand in the domestic market. Driven by the rise in pork prices, CPI may face a certain structural increase pressure, which does not rule out the possibility of an increase of 3%year -on -year in September. During this period, we especially need to strengthen market communication and stabilize inflation expectations.

In terms of PPI, Wang Qing said that the price of international commodities represented by crude oil in the near future will have a downward process, but in the next few months, international commodity prices will still face large volatility, and overall will continue to be at a high level. In order to continuously alleviate the pressure of downstream small and micro enterprises and help economic restoration, domestic coal, steel and other important industrial raw materials to maintain stability and price policy need to continue to increase, and high -quality production capacity is released in an orderly manner.

In Pang Ye's view, we must do a good job of maintaining the price of commodities in the commodity. We must improve the production and storage and marketing system, continue to improve the domestic resource guarantee capabilities and supply safety, and stabilize the price of domestic energy commodities and large mineral products. At the same time, stabilize the sowing area of ​​grain and the output of agricultural forestry and animal husbandry products, especially the leading enterprises in the industry to strengthen self -discipline, reasonably adjust the production structure, effectively improve the quality of output, and maintain normal production, supply and release rhythm. In addition, play the role of reserve regulation and expected management, strengthen the reserve adjustment mechanism and import and export adjustment effects, and strengthen the supervision of the spot market market.

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