The US dollar index breaks the 110 mark!Non -US currency has "fell down", how far can the strong dollar go?

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporter Wu Bin reported that when the Fed ’s eagle policy was expected to rise and the weak non -US currency was expected, the US dollar index strongly strengthened on September 5 and once broke through the 110 mark.

At the same time, non -US currencies have generally weakened, and they refresh for decades. On the 5th, the euro dived to the US dollar below 99 cents, a new low of 20 years. The British pound fell below the 1.15 mark to the lowest level since 1985.

In Asia, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Korean won once exceeded the 1370 mark, hitting a new high since April 2009. The market is expected to break through the 1,400 mark in the US dollar. In addition, the US dollar against the yen shakes above the 140 mark. It has hovered near the strongest level since 1998. Goldman Sachs expects the US dollar to the yen exchange rate to rise to 145 due to the expansion of the spread within three months.

After the US dollar index strongly breaks through the 110 mark, what will happen next?

The Federal Reserve Eagle policy boosted the dollar

Behind the strong dollar, the Fed's eagle policy "contributes".

Data released by the US Department of Labor on September 2 showed that the growth of non -agricultural employment in the United States in August has slowed down, but it remains stable, which is enough to make the Federal Reserve raise a sharp interest rate later this month.

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald that the strong demand for promoting salary inflation is still high, which has caused tightening concerns to continue to heat up. The number of vacancies in the need to measure the needs of American companies will still maintain a high of 11 million in July; the vacancy rate also rebounds to 6.9%, reflecting the contradiction between employment supply and demand. In this context, the year -on -year salary increased by 5.2%year -on -year, and no signs of the trend have not yet seen. The important support of salary inflation or such as inflation viscosity makes the Fed's high -intensity rate hike still a necessary choice to exacerbate peripheral fluctuations.

In addition, the US PMI data is expected to strengthen, which has also further strengthened the market's tightening expectations. On September 1, data released by the US Supply Management Association showed that the manufacturing PMI recorded 52.8 in August, higher than the expected 52; the new order index significantly improved 3.3 percentage points, recorded 51.3, and returned to the Rongku line.

In Zhao Wei's view, the new US PMI order index has a good guidance for the economy. The unexpectedly strengthening indicator has weakened the market's concerns about the rapid economic recession of the US economy. Based on the Jackson Hall conference, Powell's "must insist on raising interest rates until the goal is completed".

According to the Fed observation tools of the Zhishang Institute, the market is currently expected that the Federal Reserve ’s probability of 75 basis points for the third consecutive interest rate hike at the third consecutive consecutive meeting is about 60%, and the probability of 50 basis points in interest rate hikes is about 40%.

However, is the Federal Reserve raised 75 basis points or 50 basis points in September? May still wait for the US CPI data to be released next week to make conclusion.

After breaking through the 110 mark, what will the US dollar go next? Zhao Wei told reporters that the energy crisis has not been lifted, and the US dollar index may still rise. At present, the shortage of natural gas and soaring electricity prices have been manufactured in Germany, and the continuation of the energy crisis will still exacerbate the fundamental differentiation of the US and Europe's economic fundamentals. In the mid -term, the asymmetric of energy impact will continue to support the strong dollar. Before inflation falls significantly, the Federal Reserve may still maintain high strength and normalization, and it will continue to support the dollar to strengthen. In the process of normalization of the European Central Bank, the vulnerability or exacerbation of European debt not only dragged down the European economy, but also pushed the risk aversion emotions in stages, resulting in further strengthening the US dollar. Under the suppression of a strong US dollar, the short -term RMB may still depreciate.

Non -US currency performance is weak

In addition to the Fed's eagle policies, the "non -dispute" of currencies such as the euro, yen, and pounds is also an important reason for the strengthening of the US dollar index. Among the US dollar index composition, the euro weight is 57.6%, the yen is 13.6%, the pound is 11.9%, the Canadian dollar is 9.1%, the Swedish Crack is 4.2%, and the Swiss franc is 3.6%.

As Russia announced that natural gas transportation was stopped indefinitely, the fundamentals of Europe were in danger. Klaus Mueller, the director of the German Energy Supervisor Federal Network Agency, warned last month that even if the natural gas inventory reached 95%, if Russia stopped the gas, it was only enough to meet the needs of two and a half months. Essence In this winter, the implementation of energy assignments in Europe seems to be unavoidable.

Goldman Sachs warned that although the euro zone has made good progress in the recent aspects of natural gas reserves, this is the cost of destruction of major demand caused by production, and it does not completely eliminate the risk of more severe interruption in winter.

Regarding the severe nature of the situation, Rodrigo Catril, a foreign exchange strategist in Australia, commented that, in view of Russia's unprepared time for Russia, all the impacts have not really appeared, and the euro still has a downlink space. Without natural gas means that the economy has not increased, the European Central Bank cannot adhere to the eagle position.

As the dollar continues to strengthen, a series of non -US currency enemies are currently. After the euro fell below the US dollar, the pound was even risk of falling below the affordable. With the increasing threat of the British economy and the surge in debt costs, the British pound has gradually become a possibility for the US dollar.

Kaitou macro chief British economist Paul Dales said that the European energy crisis will cause the euro zone and Britain to fall into decline, while the US economic slowdown will be milder, which will cause the euro and the British pound to soften to the US dollar. The exchange rate of the euro to the US dollar has fallen below the parity. By next year, the British pound may also fall to close to the parity. This is still the case in developed countries, and the situation of emerging markets is even worse. According to Tan Xiaofen, a professor at the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics, the appreciation of the US dollar has caused concerns about the currency crisis of emerging market countries. On the outside world, the appreciation of the US dollar has led to the pressure of foreign trade and foreign debt in emerging market countries, affecting the income and costs of various countries, and the increase in debt default risks. Internally, the appreciation of the US dollar has led emerging economies to face input inflation and passive interest rate hikes, the economic fundamentals worsen, and the financial market fluctuations have intensified.

RMB performance is still tough

Under the influence of a strong US dollar, the renminbi has also undergone a certain pressure. On September 5th, the RMB against the US dollar at 16:30 was reported at 6.9366, a 338 basis point from the previous trading day, and more of the offshore renminbi that reflects international investors' expectations fell below the 6.95 mark in the US dollar. A new low since August 2020.

Tan Xiaofen said that the appreciation of the US dollar has promoted the pressure of RMB to face greater depreciation pressure, the differentiation of the China -US monetary policy, the repetitive domestic epidemic situation, and the still existence of real estate storms have caused disturbances to the fundamental fundamental aspects, exacerbating the short -term fluctuations in the RMB.

Joe Perry, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, told reporters that after a series of interest rate cuts, the domestic market has a loose liquidity level, coupled with strong US dollar, and a certain depreciation pressure on the RMB. At present, the offshore and offshore RMB transactions are more than 6.9, and they approach the pass of 7 again. This year, the RMB to the US dollar may exceed 7, but some international banks are expected to return to around 6.9 by the end of the year.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities and Dean of the Research Institute, pointed out in the report that even if the RMB exchange rate is "broken 7" in this round, it does not have to worry too much. First, the US dollar index points are different. In September 2019 and May 2020, the RMB exchange rate was approaching 7.2, and the US dollar indexes were around 99 and 100, respectively, and the current US dollar index was around 110, a new high in nearly 20 years. The second is that the reason why the market pays attention to "Break 7" is more because of the psychological integer passage, not an objective risk threshold. After the first two rounds of "breaking 7", the RMB exchange rate soon strengthened.

In fact, compared with other currencies, the performance of the RMB is already good, and it is supported by strong exports. Perry said that from the perspective of a basket of exchange rates, the current level of the RMB is equivalent to the beginning of the year, and it is still appreciated from the average level last year. At the beginning of the year, the CFETS RMB one basket index was around 103 and currently around 102. In contrast, in 2021, it was maintained in the 90 range most of the time.

Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, emphasized when responding to the depreciation of the RMB's exchange rate on the US dollar on September 5 that the renminbi did not have a comprehensive depreciation. The appreciation of the US dollar is greater than the appreciation of RMB. "

"China is an open economy, so the RMB exchange rate will inevitably be affected by various factors. Recently, the US dollar has been adjusted by the US dollar. The US dollar has appreciated by 14.6%this year. Under the background of the US dollar appreciation, other reserves currency in the SDR basket The depreciation of the renminbi has also been depreciated by about 8%, but compared with other non -US dollar currencies, the depreciation of the RMB is the smallest. "Liu Guoqiang said.

In addition, the People's Bank of China also shot again, and the second year of the year lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions. On the 5th, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement saying that in order to improve the ability of foreign exchange funds for financial institutions, it was decided that starting from September 15, 2022, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced by the current 8%. To 6%.

On the whole, it is difficult to depreciate for a long time. Tan Xiaofen said that from the perspective of the capital market, as of the end of 2021, the size of the capital market in China and the United States was US $ 30.7 trillion and $ 40 trillion, respectively, and China's overall scale ranked second in the world. At present, foreign investment in the mainland capital market is still small, but with the acceleration of the opening of the capital market, the demand for renminbi will increase, and then support the exchange rate. From the perspective of trade, since August, my country's banks' sales and foreign -related payment and foreign -related payment have shown a dual surplus. Long -term investment value of assets.

As the global economy and the central bank's policy prospects have not been determined, the market in the future will still have uncertainty in the future. Perry told reporters that the recent retreat of the renminbi has digested a part of the overestima pressure. At present, the US dollar index has entered the range of higher valuations. Although it may not be corrected in a short time, it is not desirable to over -the -time renminbi, and it is also necessary to be cautious at extreme dollars.

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