Luzhou Laojiao can't break the "Three" walls built by himself

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Author 丨 Xu Yunliu

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Young people love to drink white wine, and they cannot stop the entire liquor industry in the entire liquor industry.

In the first half of this year, the revenue and profit growth of liquor listed companies showed a significant slowdown in the overall year -on -year overall. Moreover, the semi -annual report of 10 wine circulation companies also explained that the revenue of the wine channels in the first half of this year has no achievements. To be precise, it is "generally negatively growing."

On the other hand, the head wine company is strong. Some relevant media sorted out that the "Mao Wuyang Fenye" ​​revenue reached 144.745 billion yuan, and its net profit was 62.331 billion yuan, accounting for about 80%and 89%of the 19 listed companies, respectively.

The "top five" means a higher market position, not to mention that there is a dazzling "war report" to highlight the strength. Taking Luzhou Laojiao as an example, the revenue in the first half of 2022 achieved a revenue of about 11.664 billion yuan, an increase of 25.19%year -on -year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was about 5.532 billion yuan, an increase of 30.89%year -on -year.

The problem is that the market competition is not retreated, especially the Luzhou Laojiao, who once ranked third in the industry, is even more willing to keep the fifth position for reappearing the past?

However, the "cruel story" of the industry is that Luzhou Laojiao has always wanted to "return to the top three". For this reason, it has been struggling for seven years, but the distance is getting farther and farther, as if it is expected to be unpredictable.

Failure to fail, defeat the high -end market

As early as 2015, Liu Miao, the new coach who took office in Luzhou, shouted the slogan "Return to the top three".

In the second year's annual report, Luzhou Laojiao made it clear that the strategic goal of returning to the industry at the end of the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan". To achieve this goal, management also "puts forward higher requirements for the company's innovation ability, brand shape, management efficiency and other aspects."

The goals and requirements are gradually clarified. Next, it depends on landing execution and results feedback.

One of the attention of receiving attention is that during the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" period, Luzhou Laojiao narrowed the gap with Yanghe shares. In 2016, Luzhou Laojiao revenue was 8.627 billion yuan, and Yanghe shares were 17.183 billion yuan, a gap of 8.556 billion yuan; by 2020, Luzhou Laojiao revenue increased to 16.653 billion yuan, and Yanghe shares revenue was 21.101 billion yuan, gap gaps Only 4.448 billion yuan.

Perhaps it was to cheer herself at all times. During the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" period, Liu Miao did not mention "returning to the first three", and at the same time tried to lead Luzhou Laojiao to break through, but the end result was unsatisfactory.

In the end of the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" in 2020, the revenue and net profit of Luzhou Laojiao could only be ranked fourth in the industry, and his dreams failed to enter the reality.

Even so, "returning to the top three" is still the goal of Luzhou Laojiao's diligently: In the 2021 report, it once again stated that it must be firmly returned to the top three in the Chinese liquor industry.

This year, Luzhou Laojiao ranked fourth with a revenue of 20.6 billion yuan in revenue. In terms of net profit, it surpassed Yanghe's shares with a weak advantage of 400 million yuan, which was a "curve to save the country."

However, the three drums were exhausted, and the battle for the "top three" in 2022 was even more intense. Luzhou Laojiao was pinched by Yanghe and Fenjiu, and was helpless. In the first half of the year, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue ranked fifth and the net profit kept fourth, but it had only 523 million yuan in Fenjiu.

This means that don't say that "returning to the first three" is to keep the fourth position, and Luzhou Laojiao is quite difficult.

One of the key reasons for not advancing and refusing is that in recent years, the white wine companies with high -end wine as their main products have become more powerful. Moutai and Wuliangye have strongly entangled the top two in the Chinese liquor industry; but Luzhou Laojiao can only rely on Guojiao 1753 This high -end large item is chased and suppressed by Moutai and Wuliangye, and it is difficult to open more market space.

In the unspeakable situation, Luzhou Laojiao chose Dong Shi's strategy -the price increase.

In 2019, Guojiao 1573 market guidance was 869 yuan/bottle, and in early 2021, it rose to 1399 yuan/bottle. However, the price increase was not fully recognized by the market -in 2020, the end price of the Guojiao 1573 was inverted; in July this year, there was a media investigation that the retail guidance price was 1,499 yuan, and it was available for only 1050 yuan.

The "operation" of Luzhou Laojiao not only increased the inventory, but also "hurt" the dealer. According to media reports, in the first half of 2022, Luzhou Laojiao mid -to -high -end wine inventory increased by 56%year -on -year, and the number of dealers in the company's period at the end of the same period decreased by 20%year -on -year.

In order to sell more wines, especially mid -to -high -end wine, Luzhou Laojiao accelerated money. In the first half of the year, advertising costs increased by 70%year -on -year to 700 million yuan.

Rao is so. From the perspective of the industry, affected by the factors such as the aforementioned Moutai Wuliangye suppression, high inventory, and dealer's sharp decrease, Luzhou Laojiao not only "may not be ideal" this year's high -end wine products, but to keep the annual year. There is also "certain pressure" in the fourth position of liquor revenue.

Low -end fading, bet on "black cover" is hopeless

High -end wine is frustrated, and the low -end wine of Luzhou Laojiao is not strong.

Before Guojiao 1573 conforms to the high -end trend of the liquor industry, before continuing price increases and capacity, Luzhou Laojiao rely on low -end wine to seek development. 60%.

However, last year, the "other wine" sector was deeply impacted, and the sales volume fell 52%. The media called Luzhou Laojiao as "low -end wine loses" and "almost collapsed." This is not the trouble of the Luzhou Laojiao family. In fact, mid -to -high -end liquor with stronger social attributes and gift attributes has become the main revenue of the entire liquor industry, and low -end wines are relatively low performance whether last year or the first half of this year.

The cause of the epidemic is obvious. A liquor dealer revealed to the reporter of "Finance" that because of the impact of the epidemic, consumption demand such as marriage in the first half of this year has shrunk, affecting low -end liquor consumption.

However, Luzhou Laojiao's low -end wine is lost, and it cannot completely "throw the pot" to the epidemic.

In 2022, the "new national standard" of liquor was fully implemented, including the perfume -type liquor, including edible wine blending wine, was defined as prepared wine and kicked out of the liquor category. At this request, Luzhou Laojiao's low -end wine "two songs" were just ran out of the list, and had to discontinue production last year.

In 2021, Luzhou Laojiao included the "other wine", including the head song and the second song, for total revenue of about 2 billion yuan, which was 200 million yuan less than the previous year. Low -end liquor is a red sea for wine companies. The market CR3 concentration is only 12%. Even brand famous wines are not easy to fight for the market in this field. The loss of 200 million market share is not small.

Faced with the dilemma of low -end wine, in 2021, Luzhou Laojiao re -deployed, and launched the "Luzhou Laojiao 1952" and the low -end light bottle wine (referring to the packaging box, you can directly see the bottle) "Black). cover".

Regarding these two products, Luzhou Laojiao has high hopes. I hope the former is "the mission of leading Luzhou Laojiao series brand rejuvenation at a high degree of price and image". The annual cumulative sales of 10 billion.

You can find that the above -mentioned "high hopes" can be found from the industry and their own situation analysis.

As far as "Luzhou Laojiao 1952" is concerned, the large development resistance is first because the epidemic has the impact of the consumption demand for sub -high -end liquor; , Guizhou's Jiujiu, most of them rely on wine companies to open the market from the "main position" to open the market. If Luzhou Laojiao wants to split a share, it must be cultivated for a long time and cannot quickly start.

In terms of "black cover", Luzhou Laojiao was priced at 98 yuan as soon as it shot, which was almost reached the ceiling of the current price of light bottle wine. The dismissal index was quite high.

This is because the price of low -end liquor is less than 50 yuan/500ml, and the price of low -end wine is less than 20 yuan. At this price belt, low -income groups and urban migrant workers constitute the main consumer groups.

Moreover, in today's economic situation, the difficulty of making money and the sensitivity of the price have greatly increased. How many people do 98 yuan of light bottle wine can buy it to sell tens of billions of billions in three years?

At the "Black Gai" conference, Zhang Biao, general manager of Luzhou Laojiao Sales Company, said: "The continuous development of Luzhou Laojiao must not only maintain the leader and waist, but also continue to consolidate the tower base and cultivate the public consumer market. ","

For the mass consumer market, "deep cultivation" is certainly necessary, but before that, more importantly, in -depth insights.

Brand aging, you need to emancipate the mind

Mid -high -end wine and low -end wine have encountered severe challenges. In the semi -annual board of directors of 2022, Luzhou Laojiao stated that it would "firmly follow the development path of" returning to the value of Chinese famous wine ".

As the only strong white wine in the industry's only "Chinese famous wine" title in the industry, Luzhou Laojiao does have its confidence.

It is only two sides of things. In the view of the wine industry analyst Cai Xuefei, Luzhou Laojiao as an old -fashioned wine has faced the problem of brand aging.

"Brand aging" does not mean that the establishment of the brand is too long, but the ability to affect consumer groups, especially young consumer groups, is not as strong as before. This is actually one of the reasons why Luzhou Laojiao cannot sit in the third and even hold the fourth.

Of course, for updating the brand image and improving the ability to affect consumer decision -making, Luzhou Laojiao, like other head wine companies, has also made relevant efforts to try.

Moutai vigorously promotes the ice cream business. Fenjiu creates wine -hearted chocolate. Yanghe shares sells blind box ice cream. It is essentially hoping to attract young consumer groups and enhance their influence and consumption stickiness in young people.

The strategy of Luzhou Laojiao is "Guang Sa.com", first to push ice drinking white wine.

As early as 2009, Guojiao 1573 tried to attract consumers with the selling point of "white wine ice", but was immediately questioned as a marketing gimmick. This strategy has been "snow collection"; in recent years, "ice drink liquor" The concept of concept is focused again, and marketing linkages with pop -up shops and micro -film, but it is not known how attractive it is to young consumers.

Secondly, Luzhou Laojiao attacked on all sides. The categories that young people like young people such as masks, ice cream, custom perfumes, wine chocolate, and milk tea have their own figures. In terms of alcohol products, fruit wines, pre -adjustment, and cocktails are also launched, which also wants to win the favor of young people.

There are a lot of movements, but no movement has been made. Luzhou Laojiao hopes that "innovative products will continue to explore new models and achieve new breakthroughs." However, at least it has not been achieved.

Perhaps in the face of the intensified "top three" battle, Luzhou Laojiao needs to be more pragmatic.While continuing to compete for the high -end wine market, we strive to cultivate secondary high -end and low -end products.Recognize the reality and give up fantasies. The glory of the past is both capital and shackles. If the old brand wants to win the new market, we must not only focus on what they have.

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