Coal ETF (515220) rose 4.88%

Coal ETF (515220) rose 4.88%

Analysis of the cause of rising: The Russian gas Beixi pipeline continued to be postponed, and the price of natural gas in Europe rose by 31%; "gas -to -coal" expects to boost the demand for coal again, promote rising power coal prices+policy segments to strengthen coal resources guarantee, global coal prices center center Or upward; supply -side multi -factor to promote coal prices to continue to rise.

The Russian Beixi Pipeline continued to be postponed, and the price of natural gas in Europe rose by 31%. Russia issued a statement on Friday evening that there was a leakage of the turbine that was found. At present, it is unclear how long the maintenance may take, and the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline is closed indefinitely. Beixi Pipeline continued to postpone the energy pressure of European countries that rushed to supplement natural gas inventory before the winter came. Today, the price of natural gas in Europe has risen by 31%.

"Gas Coal" is expected to boost the demand for coal again and promote the rise in power coal prices. As the power sector is increasingly using coal to replace natural gas, it is expected that European coal consumption this year will increase by 14%last year. Many European countries, including Germany, have begun to restart or extend coal power stations to reduce natural gas consumption as much as possible. On September 5th, 5500 calories were priced at 1300-1350 yuan/ton, 5,000 calories were priced at 1180-1210 yuan/ton, and 4500 calories were priced at 990-1000 yuan/ton.

Picture: Domestic power coal price trend

Data source: wind

The policy section strengthens the guarantee of coal resources, and the global coal price center may be moved upward; supply -side multi -factor factors help coal prices continue to rise. The People's Government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the "General Plan for Mineral Resources of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (2021-2025)", which proposed the role of strengthening the resources of coal base resources. The Heilongjiang Provincial Coal Production Safety Administration held a special meeting to fully promote the approval, construction, and completion of the coal mine upgrade and transformation project, and promote the formation of production capacity for coal mines as soon as possible.

Generally speaking, the concentration of coal production areas has increased, and the impact of public health prevention and control of the main producing area has increased on the supply side. At the same time, the safety inspection efforts of the safety inspection before important meetings may shrink Continue to rise. In the future, we must continue to pay attention to the progress of public health prevention and control in the main producing area, policy regulation, and the actual release of downstream demand.

Outlook on the market:

Although high -temperature weather relief has reduced the demand for short -term thermal power, with the construction of infrastructure projects, the demand for steel for steel has rebounded, and the coal supply and demand pattern is still tight. In terms of supply, although domestic coal production has maintained a high level, due to the complex and long period of time of the restoration of the restoration of coal mines, it is more difficult to increase production. After the concentration of the production area has further increased to the Jinanan and Shaanxi Mongolia area and Xinjiang, it was subject to railway capacity, and the coal storage was in a certain bottleneck. And the recent mining difficult events and public health prevention and control have caused the decline in production. The coal mines in the Jinanxi -Shaanxi Mongolia area have been in a downward trend for a period of time; and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will bring environmental protection and security supervision pressure. Coal production may be restricted, and new production of coal production has certain uncertainty.

From the perspective of abroad, the European energy crisis continues, the domestic and foreign and foreign inverted or normal, the import price is high, the uncertainty of overseas coal trade or increasing, and imports are still sluggish. The fundamentals of coal still have certain support. Interested investors can pay attention to investment opportunities of coal ETF (515220), but to prevent the risk of adjustment of fluctuations caused by policy effects.

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