The market has gradually fell out of cost -effective, but it can be deployed in batches

Last week, the market weakened again, and the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and GEM index fell 1.54%, 2.04%, and 4.06%, respectively. Electricity equipment, non -ferrous metals, and automobile leading industries, home appliances, real estate, and light industry leaders, and the market style continues to switch between high and low. The northern direction of funds was slightly inflow of 441 million yuan in a single week.

Source: Wind

In the short term, domestic public health incidents have been repeated, especially last week in Chengdu, Shenzhen and other places. At the same time, real estate risks are still in the lowest sales volume, overseas economic recession expectations and interest rate hike expectations are repeated, and A -share performance is restricted. The August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%disclosed last week. The manufacturing prosperity has been located in the contraction range for two consecutive months. The impact of public health events and electricity limit has reacted in high -frequency data.

At present, the market risk appetite is not high. The technological growth sector represented by new energy has encountered killing valuations, and at the same time, Buffett's reduction of BYD's negative disturbances. Therefore, although the central report has maintained a high performance growth rate, it may continue to adjust the shock in the short term. On the other hand, some of the low valuation, the growth of the expected expected, and the consumer sector may still have good performance opportunities.

From the perspective of the PE valuation of the CSI 300 Index, it is currently 11.65 times, which is located at 32.33%in the past ten years. The risk premium has risen to nearly double the standard deviation near the nearly ten years. Essence Taken together, the current A -share is at a low level, and it is not too pessimistic. For the optimistic varieties, you can consider the batch layout. Looking at it later, the important conference will be held in Beijing on October 16, and the policy is expected to be enhanced. In addition, the social finance credit data will be disclosed soon.

Source: Wind

In the peak consumption season, you can pay attention to investment opportunities for breeding ETF (159865). Affected by the decline in pig prices in the first half of 2022, the performance of most of the listed pig companies fell sharply year -on -year and suffered losses. Narrow, the number of profitable companies has increased. The business end of the enterprise, the darkest moment of pig farming has passed, and is about to welcome the prosperity cycle.

Recently, relevant departments have guided localities to investigate them. In September, they increased their government pork reserves in September and formed a joint force with the country's launch of central pork reserves. At present, it is actively preparing to put pork reserves in accordance with the work deployment. From the past, the volume of collection and storage is often small, or the plot -by -rhythm is affected, but it is generally difficult to change the trend of price changes. The production capacity and consumer demand are still the core factor affecting the price.

As the previous down to reached the low point to the downward of the sow's production capacity, the supply of pigs in the second half of the year continued to decline, and the reduction of the supply of supply to increase the aggressive fence of the breeding households, thereby reducing the supply of supply to further promote the increase in prices. After entering September, the temperature in the country is expected to decline to drive pork consumption to rise, superimposed school stocking and holiday consumption stimulus factors such as Mid -Autumn Festival and National Day, and the price of pigs may be influenced by the consumption side, continuing to rise in stages to drive the sector market.

Overseas, some data show that the unemployment rate in the United States in August rose from a 50 -year low of 3.5%last month to 3.7%. The number of new employment has dropped from 526,000 in July to 315,000. In August, the fifth exceeded expectations of non -agricultural employment data in August, but a significant decline than last month. Judging from the increasing increase in unemployment and labor participation rates, there are signs of cooling in the US labor market this month.

Source: Wall Street

After the data was disclosed, the market reduced the betting of interest rate hikes in the United States, and the expectations of 50 basis points to raise interest rates rose. But at the same time, the average hourly salary is still at a high of 5.2%year -on -year, and the upward pressure that employment brings to the economy may not be eliminated.

Looking back, the US CPI data in August is expected to be disclosed in mid -September, and the September Intersection Conference is one week after CPI data. Under the slowdown of energy base raising, decreased house price growth, and post -housing car epidemic, the US CPI data at the end of the year is expected to usher in the central movement at the end of the year. If the unemployment rate continues to rise at the same time, employment will become the core contradiction. With the interest rate hike in September, the market may re -expect the policy of policies in the United States. The S & P ETF (159612) and Naqi ETF (513100) may usher in the layout time.

Finally attached ETF diagram

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