Quick hand can't make fast money

Source | Bohufn

Author | Chen Ping'an

On the day when it was launched in 2021, six creators on the platform were invited to the scene to knock on the bell. Their identity was different. The only thing was that they all expressed as ordinary people and were seen.

(Picture source: Network)

"Let everyone be seen", which is regarded by many media as the first image of fast hands. As a short video APP outside the Fifth Ring Road, the market has given unlimited expectations to Kuaishou. In the short video reduction threshold, so that more people can participate in social appearances, people expect that new business models can continue to emerge in this new ecology to reconstruct business systems and industry structures.

But before the reconstruction, Kuaishou faces the question of how to make money.

Among the Fortune 500 companies announced in July this year, Kuaishou was selected as the king of losses in 2021 for a loss of 78 billion yuan. Although this number includes the "convertible and redeemable preferred stock fair value changes", even after adjustment, the loss of fast hands still reached 18.852 billion yuan.

After the listing, Kuaishou fell into the rhythm of the plunge. It was repeatedly rubbed at the low position. The market value fell from 1.7 trillion yuan to the current 283.836 billion yuan.

As the only short video giant in China, in the absence of Douyin, the fast hand has always been difficult to escape the quagmire. What is the problem?

Technical idealism

See or be seen? This question is guided to different answers under the action of different algorithms.

The algorithm of Kuaishou is characterized by "decentralization, de -family", focusing on supporting long -tail grassroots KOL, and reducing the "genuine coefficient" of attention between different videos. The focus is on "let everyone be seen."

The algorithm of Douyin is more concerned about digging good content through the horse racing mechanism. From letting users see what they want to see, it is obsessed with the browsing experience.

This value scale has a deep impact. To some extent, the two companies even led the division of product logic and business model.

The specific manifestation is that due to the principle of inclusiveness of the fast hand, its influence can be deepened to the nerve endings of the entire country, and the sinking user group accounts for more than 60%; at the same time High -frequency, the platform is developing more towards the community.

When Douyin pushes the content, fans only account for 10%, and they are more inclined to recommend the video to the public domain flow pool, which matches the audience of the content itself. This mechanism itself has set a certain threshold for the creation, which improves the concentration of creative content, and the goal recommendation is higher. At the same time, compared with fast hands, the proportion of users in the first and second -tier cities in Douyin.

These two different platform characteristics make Douyin more popular with big brands in advertising, and fast hands are mostly effective advertisements.

In addition, it is very important that high -level and low beating are always easier than low. According to relevant data, Douyin has more than 700 million daily lives, and the domestic daily life is 347 million. According to deep burning reports, an analyst close to Kuaishou said that it is almost impossible for Kuaishou to achieve anti -Douyin.

This makes if there is a considerable gap between fast -handed and vibrato from the perspective of focusing on the scale of traffic and flowing.

According to Tencent's "Deep Network" report, insiders revealed that in 2021, Douyin's advertising revenue was about 150 billion yuan. According to Kuaishou's 2021 report, its online marketing services (advertising business) revenue for annual revenue of 42.665 billion yuan.

The same logic is also applicable in the field of e -commerce. After communityization and sinking features, on the one hand, after the introduction of live policies, it is difficult for Kuaishou to find head anchors similar to Simba; on the other hand, platform characteristics make large brands flow to Douyin. The rate is low.

In the field of e -commerce, the total annual e -commerce transaction (GMV) of fast -handed annual e -commerce transactions reached 680 billion yuan. Douyin did not publish official data. According to the expectations of Guangfa Securities, the number was between 70 and 880 billion yuan.

This is why, in the second quarter of this year, in the context of the overall economic downward environment, Kuaishou not only maintained increasing revenue, but also completed the target of the turnover in the two quarters in advance, but the market response responded mediocre, and the stock price even slightly declined.

The reason is that through the financial report, I did not see the breakthrough point of fast hands in profit.

From the perspective of business, live broadcast revenue and online marketing services accounted for 90%of the overall income. Among them, the live broadcast revenue in this quarter increased from 7.2 billion yuan in the same period in 2021 to 8.6 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2022. Online marketing revenue was 11 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 10.5 %.

Except for the very incomparable live broadcast business in the future, the industry believes that the increase in fast -handed advertising revenue in this quarter is more because in the environment of the overall scale of Internet advertising decreased by 7.6%year -on -year. The shy pain points in the advertiser's pocket, not what changes at the business level.

The e -commerce business, which has been highly hoped, has increased by 31.5%year -on -year GMV this quarter to 191.2 billion yuan, and revenue increased by 7.1%, accounting for only 9.7%of the total revenue, and the currency conversion rate was about 1.11%. The monetization rate in 2020 is 3.3%.

In terms of how to make a profit, Kuaishou needs to take your own way.

Carry out new businesses

It can be seen that Kuaishou is constantly looking for new growth points. On the one hand, it has proposed to trust e -commerce around its own community ecology, and on the other hand, it accelerates the exploration of to B video cloud. At the "Gravity Conference" in May this year, Kuaishou upgraded the fast -handed e -commerce to "Big E -commerce, a big brand, a big brand, and a big service provider", and proposed that it will use more than 23 billion in 2022 to exceed 23 billion Flow support more than 500 fast brand benchmarks.

The underlying logic of trusting e -commerce is an acquaintance economy. Cheng Yixiao disclosed at this quarter's performance telephone meeting that the cumulative number of interoperable users of the Kuaishou platform has exceeded 20 billion pairs, an increase of 66%year -on -year. The number of people's attention per month on the per capita user has continued to increase to more than 300.

Establish a "acquaintance" scene through a strong community atmosphere, thereby completing the transformation of traditional e -commerce "people find goods" to trust e -commerce "people find people". Through supporting fast brands, the low unit price of white cards can be solved to a certain extent, thereby increasing the currency conversion rate of e -commerce business.

But the problem is that the trust relationship depends more on the trading experience. Although on March 4 this year, Kuaishou released the "2021 Fast E -commerce Credit Construction Annual Report". The trust index was included in the merchant recommendation system, but considering that the quality problems were repeatedly reported in the past, whether the quality problem was repeatedly reported, so whether it can be successfully established such a new kind of new kind of new kind of new type The relationship between acquaintances still depends on the platform's governance capabilities.

On the other hand, the upgrade from white cards to fast brand also takes time test, which is not difficult to speculate that this will be a long -term process. Judging from the data in the second quarter, the fast -handed e -commerce GMV increased by 45.8 billion this quarter, only to bring 140 million yuan in revenue to increase.

In August this year, Kuaishou held a brand launch conference of the new B -end product StreamLake to enter the video cloud market.

According to the "China Video Cloud Market Tracking (2021 second half)" released by IDC, the Chinese video cloud market size reached 50.04 billion U.S. dollars in the second half of 2021, a year -on -year increase of 32.7%, and the year -on -year growth of 32.1%and 35.4%, respectively. The market size is expected to reach $ 36.4 billion in 2026.

(Picture source: Network)

The advantage of Kuaishou is Yu Bing, the person in charge of Streamlake, is a well -known audio and video pioneer in the industry. The cloud intelligent video processing SOC chip SL200 developed by the Streamlake team led by his StreamLake team has been successful and online testing.

Secondly, Kuaishou did not choose to use bandwidth as the main profit target, but to choose to bring benefits through compression algorithms.

However, despite this, considering that the To B business requires continuous investment in R & D funds as the basis, there is a long period of long cycle, and the current profitability of Kuaishou is not optimistic. Therefore Essence

In other words, no matter whether the new business is successful or not, phased results take a certain time to verify.

Have to have long -termism

On the eve of listing in 2021, when the media "asking for future stock competition, what fast hands need to do well", the answer from Zhang Fei, the first round of investors and Wuyuan Capital partners,: "Community and Ecology".

In the second quarter of this year, MAU (average monthly active user) reached 586 million, an increase of 15.9%year -on -year; DAU (average daily active user) reached 347 million, an increase of 18.5%year -on -year History is new.

(Picture source: Network)

According to the "2022 Z Insight Report" released by QuestMobile, of the top 15 of the average monthly use time of the generation user APP, the fast -moving and fast -moving speed version is second only to "Glory of the King", ranking second and third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, third, and third. Lead a series of social and content products such as WeChat, Douyin, and B Station.

The story of Kuaishou's community and ecology is already sufficient.

但在直播业务江河日下，在线广告持续承压，电商业务尚且无法挑起大梁，出海持续亏损的情况下，一方面快手尚且无法快速拿出强有力底牌去构建新的护城河，另一方面，新Business growth also takes time.

In the future, in the context of the overall economy, the coldness that Kuaishou will face will be heavier.

Reference source:

1. TOB industry headline: Can Kuaishou do a good TOB?

2. The view of the chief character: Suhua is still not cruel enough

3. In the surface of the table: Douyin fast hand, move towards the pole

4. There are Datavision: The curve of the fast hand is difficult to overtake

5. Digestation: Different algorithms of Douyin and Kuaishou

6. Photon planet: Kuaishou meets iron cocks

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