Heavy!The latest release of the People's Bank of China: all remain unchanged

At the same time, the People's Bank of China also announced that it will conduct 10 billion yuan 7 -day reverse repurchase operations today, with a bid interest rate of 2.10%, which is the same as before. Due to the expiration of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase today, there was a zero investment that day.

LPR in June did not change: one -year 3.7%, 4.45%above 5 years or above

The loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) of more than 5 years (LPR) of the loan market was sharply reduced by 15 basis points last month. As market expectations, the June LPR that was released today has not changed. On June 20, 2022, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was: one -year LPR was 3.7%, and 4.45%of LPRs above 5 years were the same as last month.

Picture source: China Currency Network

On June 15th, the central bank launched the 150 billion yuan interim loan convenience (MLF) operation and 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operations. The bid interest rates were 2.85%and 2.10%, respectively, all the same as the previous period. The LPR is quoted by the method formed by the public market operating interest rate (mainly referring to the interim borrowing convenience rate MLF). It is calculated by the National Banking Interior Borrowing Center to provide a pricing reference for bank loans. In short, LPR is equal to MLF+points, and the additional point depends mainly on factors such as the cost of each own capital, market supply and demand, and risk premium.

At present, the MLF operating interest rate has remained unchanged for five consecutive months, and the last time it was adjusted to January this year. In most cases, the MLF operating interest rate is the vane of LPR. However, there are exceptions. For example, in the case of MLF interest rate continuously, LPR ushered in asymmetric adjustment in May, the 1 -year LPR has not changed, and the 5 -year LPR reduces 15 basis points from 4.6%in the previous April, which is the largest decline. At the same time, It is also the first time that the LPR reform in August 2019 is the first one -year unchanged and five -year varieties.

According to the Beijing Youth Daily on the 20th, LPR was completely expected in the market in June. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, said that the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in June, which means that the foundation of LPR offer this month has not changed. Considering the operating pressure of some banks, the LPR "adding points" in the short term is more difficult, and LPR is expected to maintain stability this month.

Zhou Maohua pointed out that financial statistics in May show that the financial financing structure of the real economy is not ideal, and the difficulties and challenges facing the domestic economy are more complicated. Next, we need to further develop the policy implementation, attach importance to optimizing the credit structure, and "make up for the real economy further" Short board. In terms of funds, the central bank is expected to ensure that the capital is stable through short -term capital interference factors such as repurchase and MLF, such as short -term capital interference factors such as seasons, monthly, tax payment, and special debt issuance.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that on the one hand, LPR interest rates are linked to MLF. In the context of MLF's unreasonable, LPR probability will not be reduced; on the other hand, the LPR quotation of more than 5 years in May has exceeded expectations Decreased 15 basis points, which helps encourage financial institutions to increase medium and long -term credit investment and meet the needs of enterprises and residents.

Dongfang Jincheng Chief Macro analyst Wang Qing believes that the current stable growth measures have entered the implementation stage, and monetary policy is generally in the observation period, so the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in June; Back, this also helps take into account both inside and outside balance.

People in the industry also pointed out that LPR is still likely to be reduced in the future. Wang Qing predicts that the macro economy in the third quarter may still face certain downward pressure, and the next step will focus on the launch of "combination boxing" to promote the virtuous cycle of real estate. Focusing on promoting the decline in the interest rate of mortgages, in addition to continuing to guide the decline of LPR quotes of more than 5 years, it does not rule out the possibility of downgrading MLF interest rates in the third quarter.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist obviously believes that LPR still has room to reduce in the later period. The current regulatory authorities continue to guide the cost of liabilities for the liabilities of the bank. As the cost of bank liabilities decline, LPR is expected to drive down. Since the beginning of the year, my country's actual loan interest rate has declined. It is expected that LPR will still be further reduced in the second half of the year, especially for more than 5 years of LPR reduction space, and then release more space for the reduction of actual loan interest rates.

Will the interest rate cut come again?

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guosheng Securities, believes that the scale of credit and social integration in May has risen, and the seasonal nature is also exceeded. It is still weak; in addition, the social finance data structure is still very poor, and it is concentrated in "residential mortgage loans in June have been rarely increased in June.

Xiongyuan said that June may be the watershed of China's economy and market. In the short term, the credit community is expected to continue to rise in June. The possibility of cutting interest rates in June or July. estate.

Li Chao, the chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, believes that in May 2022, credit, social finance, and M2 data of credit, social finance, and M2 have exceeded expectations, reflecting the efforts of the central bank's overtime wide credit policy at the end of May. The proportion of loans has continued to fall, and the structure still needs to be improved. In May, residents' medium- and long -term loans increased by more than 300 billion yuan year -on -year. Although the range was improved from April, it was weaker than January and March. The possibility. Photo source: Photo Network-500585985

Li Chao interpreted that in May, financial data was expected to be related to the TV meeting of the central bank's entire system monetary credit situation on May 23, and the policy guidance of the monetary credit situation analysis meeting held by the central bank and the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission on that day.

The meeting emphasizes that national development banks and policy banks must give full play to the role of supplementary shortcomings and cyclical adjustments; large state -owned commercial banks must take the initiative to contribute and make more contributions; joint -stock banks must fully dig their potential; large -scale urban commercial banks must play their location advantages. In addition, on June 1, the State Frequently proposed that finance should support infrastructure construction and increase the credit limit of 800 billion yuan in policy banks. Therefore, in addition to commercial banks, policy banks may follow up may increase credit in the infrastructure field.

CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly told reporters that the possibility of one -year LPR reduction in the market outlook is relatively small, and the 5 -year LPR still has room for decline. One -year LPR is an important reference for short -term loan interest rates, linked to OMO (open market operating interest rate) and MLF (interim operation convenience rate). As the Fed's interest rate hike cycle and US debt yields continue to rise, from the perspective of stable exchange rates and attracting foreign capital, it should avoid excessive inverted short -term interest rates in China and the United States. The 5 -year LPR has a significant role in boosting long -term credit, especially the demand for residents' mortgage loans, which is conducive to the recovery of the real estate market.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, has different views. Zhou Maohua believes that the possibility of short -term central bank adjustment policy interest rates is low, but it does not rule out to guide financial institutions to continue to continue to the real economy weak links, focus on rational and emerging areas, protect market entities, stabilize employment, and stimulate the vitality of micro -subject.

Zhou Maohua pointed out that on the one hand, the current monetary policy needs to take into account the internal and external balance to prevent the potential overflow of input inflation and the rapid turn of the policy of input -type inflation and the rapid turn of the developed economy. The additional part of LPR (MLF interest rate+point) in the short term is a bit difficult. In addition, although the current property market recovery is not as good as expected, as the epidemic has weakened, the economy has recovered, and the effect of precision regulation and control policies in various places has gradually emerged, and the recovery trend of the property market is relatively clear.

Zhang Jiqiang, deputy director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, believes that the key to solving the current economic problems is not to reduce interest rates, but to control the epidemic and increase the vitality of micro -subject. At the perspective of policy, fiscal policy is key to protect market entities and the total demand for leverage, and it only depends on the limited monetary policy.

Zhang Jiqiang mentioned that the current economy and employment are still under pressure, but monetary policy must also consider effectiveness, external constraints, side effects, etc. A better approach may be the repair of fiscal efforts and observing the epidemic. At present, OMO (open market operation) interest rates still seem to lack space, but LPR, especially long end, is still possible.

Zhang Jiqiang also specifically mentioned the external constraints and negative effects facing interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank officially announced the interest rate hike last week. In addition, the United States announced that CPI inflation in May exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to rise. After July or after, the short -term interest rate of China -US policy will also begin to invert, which will restrict domestic monetary policy.

In addition, interest rate cuts may also bring certain side effects: first, symmetry and interest rate cuts may sacrifice the interests of disadvantaged groups such as storage households; the second is to erode the net interest difference between interest rate cuts to financial institutions; third, it may cause the economy to "get rid of reality"; four It is a behavioral behavior that may be overdrawn; fifth is that monetary policy still has the goal of maintaining "internal and external balance"; six is ​​that inflation is still a long -term concerns.

Daily Economic News Integrity of the People's Bank of China, 21st Century Economic Daily, Beijing Youth Daily

Daily Economic News

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