Grand Commodity Weekly 丨 Seventh -way Group has a limitation on the price of oil oil, Beixi No. 1 pipeline stops gas supply, and the price of gold fell below $ 1700/ounce

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

This week (August 29th-September 2nd) energy market regeneration and turbulence, the Seventh Kingdom Group reached a consensus to set up a price limit on the export of Russian oil products. The EU also intends to implement the upper limit of the Russian pipeline gas. Russia responded to that the move was ridiculous, and threatened to stop supplying oil and gas to "unfriendly" internationally. At the same time, as the main pipeline of Russia's losses, Beixi No. 1 announced an unlimited period of time due to equipment failure.

As the temperature falls in the south and the precipitation of the southwest, the load of power in many places has fallen, and the inflection point of power coal daily consumption has also appeared. The traditional "Golden Nine" peak season in the steel market has finally arrived. Due to the flatness of demand, non -ferrous metal copper and Tinben fell sharply. What is the future trend?

The Seven Kingdoms Group agreed to implement the price restriction on Russia's oil implementation

On September 2nd, local time, the Seventh -way Group (G7), including the United States, Britain, Germany, etc., reached an agreement on the upper limit of the Russian oil export settings. As the geopolitical conflict continues, the Seven Kingdoms Group hopes to reduce Russia's income and avoid rapid rise in oil prices through this move.

According to the announcement issued by the Seven Kingdoms Group, the price restrictions on Russia's oil exports will be discussed and decided by various countries. The resolution will come into effect with the EU's next batch of sanctions, including the prohibition of imports of Russian oil from the import of sea transportation from December.

The Russian side stated that the price restrictions of the Seventh Kingdoms Group are very ridiculous and may destroy the global oil market. If the country sets the upper limit of the price of Russian energy products, Russia will stop supplying oil products to the above countries.

International oil prices fell over 10% in three days

With the intensification of differences between European and American countries and Russia, the global crude oil market is also differentiated into the two major split markets that purchase Russian oil and do not buy Russian oil. Under the influence of factors such as economic growth, demand expectations, and supply changes, international oil prices continue to fluctuate at a high level.

International oil prices rose slowly last week and experienced a sharp decline this week. Beginning on August 30, international oil prices fell for three consecutive trading days. The three -day declines of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil exceeded 10%.

As of the morning of September 3, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in October increased by 0.30%to close at $ 86.87/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in November rose 0.71%, closing at $ 93.02/USA/USD/USA/USD/USA/US $ 93.02/USA/USD/USA/USD/USA/USD/USA/USD/USA/USD/USA /02 USD/USA/USD/USA /02 USD/USA/USD/USA /02 USD/USA/USD/USA /02 USD/USA/USB bucket.

The market will currently look at the OPEC+oil -producing National Conference that will be held on September 5. Sources pointed out that OPEC+may maintain the October output quota unchanged in October, but it does not rule out the possibility of reducing production to support oil prices.

The EU call for the upper limit of the price of pipeline gas to Russia

The European Commission President Feng Delin said on September 2 that Europe needs to set up a price limit on the price of natural gas in the Russian pipeline to defeat Russia's attempt to control the European energy market. Russia threatened that if natural gas price restrictions were implemented, Russia would stop supplying gas to Europe.

Feng Delin called on countries to take measures to collect some profits from the profitable local power operators to help residents and related companies in trouble.

This week, the price of TTF natural gas contracts at the Dutch benchmark fell from a high level of 346 euros/MWh to 212 euros/MWh, and it was still at an absolute high of the past years.

Beixi 1 pipeline is closed due to unlimited failures

The natural gas dispute between the European Union and Russia continued. On September 2nd, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. (Russia) issued a statement in social media saying that due to a number of equipment failures during routine maintenance, Beixi No. 1 natural gas pipeline will completely stop the gas transmission until the failure is completely eliminated.

Russia said that when the company and the representatives of Siemens jointly inspected the PortoVaya gas transmission station, they found that many equipment oil leakage was found. The representatives of Siemens signed and confirmed on the test report. Russia's local competent authorities warned that equipment failure and damage caused the turbine to operate safely without failure, so it is necessary to take measures to suspend operation.

At present, these turbines are in a state of compulsory shutdown. According to Siemens Company, only professional maintenance companies can completely exclude oil leakage failures.

Beixi No. 1 pipeline is the main channel for Russia to transport natural gas to the European Union. The overall capacity can originally reach 170 million cubic meters per day. After the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe in February, European and American countries sanctioned Russia. After June, the overall transport volume of Beixi 1 had fallen to 20%of the previous. At present, Beixi 1 has completely stopped gas supply.

Gold price fell below $ 1700/ounce

The price of gold fell sharply this week, and fell below $ 1,700/ounce after late July.

On September 1, the price of gold in London fell to $ 1688.7/ounce, and the price of gold futures in New York also fell to $ 1699.1/ounce.

Meiya Futures Research Report pointed out that near the end of August, the US dollar index rose and the price of gold fell, because the market was expected to pricing the large -scale interest rate hikes of the Fed and the European Central Bank. Last week, the Fed and the European Central Bank both showed their stance, promising that even if economic growth was hit, they must go all out to respond to high inflation.

According to the Dow Jones market data, the most active contract price fell 3.1%in August and fell for the fifth consecutive month. This is the longest monthly decline since the six months ended in September 2018. Dynamic coal day turning point appears

Recently, rainwater in the southwestern region has increased, the supply of hydropower supply has improved, the temperature in the south has fallen, and the daily consumption of coal consumption of power plants has gradually declined.

Soochow Futures pointed out that the recent continued high levels of coal supply, the supply volume is significantly higher than that of the same period; the production capacity has increased steadily, but safety accidents, weather and epidemic form a negative impact. Although imported coal has rebounded, it has declined significantly compared with the same period of previous years. In the case of inverted internal and external prices, it is expected that the import of coal imports in the later period is expected to increase a significant increase.

According to the analysis of CCTD China Coal Market Network, overall, the coal of coastal coal is guaranteed to be guaranteed, and the terminal inventory is slow. Non -electricity companies and some market coal accounts for large electrical companies are mainly procurement.

Soochow Futures said that the temperature has begun to fall at a high level in the near future, and the inflection point of the daily consumption of power coal terminals has appeared, but the alternative effect of hydropower has weakened significantly. The impact of high -temperature production restrictions on the cement industry has not yet been completely ended, and the operating rate of chemical industry has not improved significantly. The demand for non -power coal of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" should not be overestimated.

How is the "peak season" in steel?

After the ups and downs of the second quarter, the steel market has finally ushered in the traditional "Golden Nine" peak season. What is the specific color is to be verified by the market.

The comprehensive price of Lange Steel National Steel this week was 4284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%from last week. The operating rate of the steel factory's blast furnace continued to rise slightly, the social inventory decreased for eleven weeks, the inventory of the building material plant increased, and the inventory of the medium -sized board plant decreased slightly.

At the cost and profit end, the price of iron ore has fallen slightly this week, the price of scrap steel has fallen significantly, the price of coke has remained stable, the price of steel prices has fallen, and the production profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Recently, the steady growth policy has been increased, and the demand for peak season is expected to be increased, but the weak reality and cost support of the end market has reduced the price of steel prices this week.

Lange Iron and Steel Analysis pointed out that recently the enthusiasm of the re -production of steel mills has weakened, and the supply side will once again rise in the situation of rising pressure; the demand side, the stable growth policy will be compacted again. Essence It is expected that the domestic steel market will show a weak market next week, which does not rule out the increase in the release of terminal demand, which leads to the rise in the exploration.

Iron ore price fall

The price of iron ore has fallen significantly this week. As of September 2nd, the price of the main contract of domestic iron ore futures fell to 675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.2%from last week; the price index of the general iron ore fell to $ 95/ton, a 10%decrease from last week.

The Lange Iron and Steel Analysis pointed out that the volume of transportation in Australia and Brazilian mines has been significantly rebounded this week, and the number of ports to ports has continued to rise. As the profit of steel mills decreased month -on -month, the willingness to re -production of steel companies has also weakened.

At present, foreign mining shipments and increased volume to Hong Kong, the supply of internal ore supply is resumed, and the supply side of iron ore will tend to relax; from the perspective of demand, the profit of steel companies will be reduced or the scale of reinstatement will be suppressed in the short term. The weak operation has also formed a negative feedback on the iron ore market, and the supply and demand pattern of iron ore has weakened.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: The price of raw material products is gradually returning to a reasonable range

On September 2nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a press conference on "Promote the High -quality Development of the Raw Materials Industry". Chen Kelong, director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that since this year, the raw material industry has developed a "V" -shaped development trend and operated below the overall level of industrial, but the price of product prices has gradually returned to a reasonable range.

Among them, the prices of raw materials such as steel, copper, aluminum, cement, flat glass and other raw materials have fallen after reaching the highest point of last year (copper price is historical high). In the 4th week of August, the prices of threads, copper, aluminum, cement, and flat glass decreased by 33%, 17%, 23%, 28%, and 38%compared with the highest point last year.

In the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will adhere to the general tone of work in stability, further strengthen operation monitoring and early warning and production guarantee of large raw materials, and provide support for the secure and stability of the industrial chain supply chain.

Zhang Haeng, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said on September 2 that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued an implementation plan for the industrial carbon peaks and made a general deployment of the raw material industry. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also took the lead in formulating carbon peaks in non -ferrous metal and building materials industries, and planned to be implemented in the near future; in conjunction with the formulation of carbon peaks in the petrochemical and steel industry.

Tin price plunge

The tin price has fallen significantly this week. On September 3rd, the main contract of domestic tin futures closed at 174,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 14%from the highest value on August 29; London's September 3 price was US $ 21195/ton, a decrease from August 30th be oversupply exceeding August 30 13%.

Tin is mainly used in tin welds, tin chemical industry, horse mouth iron and floating glass. The terminal involves the industry including the electronics industry, home appliances, and metallurgy industries. Among them, more than half of China's tin consumption in the field of electronics.

The analysis of Shanghai Steel Union pointed out that the recent decline in tin value is mainly due to the plain demand for traditional downstream industries, and the demand has not been recovered temporarily.

Copper price fell nearly 6% weekly

This week's copper prices ended with a sharp rise in the storm, and began to fall steadily.This weekend, Shanghai Copper closed at 59,900 yuan/ton, down 5.95%from the closing price last weekend; Lun Tong closed at $ 7547.8/ton, a 7.2%fell from the closing price last weekend.Huarong Futures Research Report pointed out that the overall demand is weak, and the pressure above the copper price may be difficult to break through; the domestic power limit has eased, the production of smelting factories will return to normal, and the increase in domestic electrolytic copper supply will also be relieved.It is expected that copper prices will remain weakly in the short term.

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