Wen Finance (68) ｜ Buffett's holdings of BYD: What should I think?

This week, Buffett's holdings of BYD have attracted much attention.

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website, on September 1, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold 1.716 million shares of BYD (002594) shares. After reducing holdings, the shareholding ratio fell to 18.87%, and the total number of shares held after the reduction was 217 million shares. This is Berkshire's second reduction in BYD after August 24. Two reductions, Berkshire Hathaway cash out over 800 million Hong Kong dollars.

H -shares BYD shares fell 13.55%from August 30th to September 2nd, and closed at HK $ 228.4 on September 2nd. During the same period, A -share BYD fell 10%and closed at 282 yuan on the day. During this time, because of Buffett's reduction, it is not an exaggeration to say that BYD has collapsed the A -share new energy track, and the guessing of BYD BYD will continue to put pressure on H shares and even A shares.

This scene has actually been staged in advance. On July 11, data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange CCASS showed that 225 million shares in H -shares were transferred to Citibank, and BYD shares of Citibank's seats increased by 225 million to 388.6 million shares, accounting for 35.39%. Although this change was later explained as a physical shares to electronic shares, it did not eliminate market doubts: On July 12, H -shares BYD shares fell 11.93%, closed at HK $ 270.2, A -share BYD fell 4.72%on the day, receivables were closed, receiving receipts At 308.9 yuan.

So, what should I think of BYD's holding BYD?

【one】

On August 29th after Buffett's first reduction, BYD released the 2022 semi -annual report: realized operating income of 150.607 billion yuan, an increase of 65.71%year -on -year; net profit of home mother was 3.595 billion yuan, an increase of 206.35%year -on -year. Compared with 2021, BYD's increasing increasing increasing increasing profit has been significantly improved, and half a year's profit exceeded the whole year of 2021.

BYD said that in the first half of the year, in order to meet the growing market demand, the company continued to optimize the layout of various links of new energy vehicles and actively improved production capacity. The delivery speed continued to increase, but the non -delivery orders still reached a record high, and the pressure of delivery was still the same. It is expected that in the second half of the year, as the supply chain resumes stability, the supply and demand force will be exerted, and the sales of new energy vehicles will be broken again.

In view of Buffett's influence, BYD has strengthened public relations activities after its reduction to enhance investor confidence.

On August 30, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu attended investor research activities. The event was invited to 1119 investors. In addition to Wang Chuanfu participating in the reception, there were many executives of BYD and BYD electronics.

BYD mentioned in the investigation that the growth momentum of new energy vehicles is unstoppable, and consumers are increasingly recognized for new energy vehicles electric vehicles or plug -in hybrids. The number of people from the recent auto show shows that the market demand is hot. The company continues to excavate the potential of production capacity and continuously meets the growing demand for orders in the market.

In response to the problems such as rising raw materials and subsidies for new energy vehicles, BYD responded that it would actively increase production capacity, the monthly sales volume continued to increase, the scale effect was prominent, and the advantages of vertical integration were used. Gastrointestinal profit pressure. Subsequent research and development efforts will be increased, brand image promotion, reserve a lot of new technologies, and strengthen competitiveness.

Regarding the reduction of holdings, BYD responded that shareholders 'reduction of holdings is the shareholders' investment decision, and the company's sales volume has reached a record high, and the current operation is healthy.

On the evening of September 2nd, BYD disclosed production and sales data showed that its sales in August hit a record high of 174,900, an increase of 184.84%year -on -year, a record high from the previous month of sales; 97.88 cumulative sales from January to August 97.88 Thousands of vehicles, a year -on -year increase of 267.31%. At the same time, BYD's overseas strategy has accelerated. It first disclosed 4026 overseas sales of new energy passenger vehicles for the first time. It sold 5092 vehicles overseas in August, an increase of 26.48%from July.

All signs show that BYD's fundamentals continue to improve and have entered the fast track.

【two】

In September 2008, Buffett bought 225 million BYD H -shares at a price of 8 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a total transaction of about 1.8 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In this transaction, Munger, who played a decisive role, described and evaluated Wang Chuanfu for "Fortune" magazine: "This guy is simply a mixture of Edison and Welch. I can solve the problem of corporate management like Welch. I have never seen such a thing. "

Shortly after Buffett's investment in BYD, the stock price continued to rise. In October 2009, BYD's shares were up to HK $ 88. But then it was like a roller coaster, the lowest in July 2012 fell to HK $ 12. But until this reduction, Buffett had been holding firmly.

In 2021, Munger said in response to BYD's doubts, "We like this company very much, and appreciate its management very much, so we will follow the true ideas of our hearts and continue to hold it."

Judging from the 14 -year market test, Buffett and Munger's judgment is completely correct. The essence of investment is actually investing. As a BYD soul figure, Wang Chuanfu was not disappointing. Moreover, it was in the market competition that Wang Chuanfu became more mature and was entering the state.

According to personal observations, Wang Chuanfu is not only good at solving technical and management problems, but more importantly, he is more good at solving the problem of industrial chain: Wang Chuanfu is the earliest entrepreneurial entrepreneur in China to make the demographic dividend and even engineer bonus. The password of prying the automotive industry, and the platform opening strategy of generating and upgrading on this basis has inserted a new wings to BYD. As Premier Li Keqiang encouraged BYD on August 17: BYD has both the scientific spirit and the spirit of craftsmen, combining these two spirit, you can create ace. BYD New Energy Vehicle must be a trump card!

In a sense, Tesla's factory in China is also the same way to know the Chinese manufacturing industry. It can be seen from the butterfly changes of BYD models that BYD, an international fan is mature.

【three】

BYD's fundamentals have not changed, and the soul figures have not changed. Behind the reducing holdings, there is only one: Buffett's concept and judgment of the general trend.

In fact, as investors, financial reduction is natural and understandable. If it is a strategic reduction or even empty, it needs attention and attention. Therefore, there are many speculations about Buffett's concerns about Sino -US relations, which is a more intuitive feeling.

But related data is not the case. Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that from January to July, the actual amount of foreign investment in the country was 798.33 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3%year-on-year, equivalent to US $ 123.92 billion, an increase of 21.5%. From the source, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and Germany's actual investment in China increased by 44.5%, 36.3%, 26.9%, and 23.5%, respectively.

This data shows that the actual investment in China from the United States has a strong contrast with the various surrounds of the US government to China. Correspondingly, similar situations have occurred in Japan and Germany. That is to say, the most representative capital logic in the world has not changed greatly. Therefore, the cause of Buffett's reduction of holdings still needs to continue to observe. At least from the macro to the industry track and the company itself, Buffett's reduction of holdings lacks fundamental support. Therefore, it can be said that H -shares and A shares have reacted to its reduction in their holdings at least excessive.

Specifically, BYD's stock price has a premium of at least 40%compared to Hong Kong stocks. This should be regarded as the recognition of BYD value in the Mainland. And this recognition indicates that one day A shares must stand up to their own value.

Source ｜ Jingbao APP

Reporter: Hu Wen

Figure: Xu Qingdong

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