Trust industry reaches key points 1.6 trillion real estate stock risk geometry

For the trust industry that has experienced many rectifications, it has now reached a historic key point. Trust agencies are also looking for their own tracks. The scale of basic industries and real estate trusts has reached 1.6 trillion yuan, and the industry's overall leverage is at a high level and the continuous impact of real estate pressure on the trust industry cannot be underestimated.

Author: Cai Yuekun

Figure: Tuwa Creative

On August 31, 2022, Anxin Trust Co., Ltd. (600816.SH, hereinafter referred to as "Anxin Trust") issued an announcement stating that recently received the "Crude Supervision Compulsory Measures Decisions" issued by the Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau (hereinafter referred to as "hereinafter referred to as" hereinafter referred to as " Decisive "), of which the controlling shareholders were ordered to transfer all the equity of the security trust held in one month.

At present, the trust industry is in the risk rectification of the seventh trust industry. In the past, the dark horse Anxin Trust in the industry has emerged from the beginning of the redemption crisis to the reorganization for more than 3 years. Today, it is about to face changes in control.

In the process of rectification of the trust industry in this round, according to incomplete statistics, more than 5 trust agencies have exposed risk problems, and many trust companies have occurred in the case of equity transfer and actual controller changes. Even in July 2022, Xinhua Trust began to enter the bankruptcy liquidation process. Xinhua Trust is also the first trust company to go bankrupt since the implementation of the Bankruptcy Law on June 1, 2007.

For the trust industry that has experienced many rectifications, it has now reached a historic key point. Trust agencies are also looking for their own tracks.

The person in charge of a head trust city investment business told the Economic Observation News that, from the perspective of overall, economic development has transferred from an incremental economic expansion to the stock game into the stage of high -quality transformation and development. For the trust industry, the trust company The traditional path of traditional real estate and urban investment and other financing trusts is destined to be unreasonable. Therefore, its trust company has been transformed since the first half of 2022, optimizing the reform of the department's organizational structure, and focusing on layout to carry out business such as sunshine private equity, family trust, equity investment and other businesses.

After six rectifications

In 1979, China International Trust Investment Corporation, the first trust agency in China, was established, and it was officially launched by the indicator trust industry.

However, due to the rich investment types and high risk preferences of trust companies, the industry has repeatedly developed the phenomenon of disorderly development. Therefore, the regulatory layer conducts six large -scale clean -up and rectification of the trust industry, and guides the development of trust business to gradually regulate.

After more than 40 years of development, the trust industry has once again faced the industry rectification period, and the trust agency has once again stood at the transformed crossroads. At the 2019 China Trust Industry Annual Conference held on December 25, 2019, Huang Hong, a member of the CBRC Party Committee and Vice Chairman, personally stated that it is the seventh industry rectification of the trust.

Beginning in 2019, the large -scale redemption crisis in Anxin Trust and Sichuan Trust has been tested in the entire trust industry's reputation. In addition, Xinhua Trust began to enter the bankruptcy liquidation process in July 2022. Many trust institutions such as Washing Trust have also been exposed to long -term suspension.

The six large -scale cleanup and rectifications of the trust industry occurred in turn in sequentially in 1982, 1985, 1988, 1993, 1999, and 2007. In the initial three rectifications, it was three years. Excessive currency issuance and flowing into trusts and trusts are developing too fast.

From 1988 to 2007, there were three industry rectifications, with the interval of 5, 6, and 8 years, and the reasons for rectification were chaotic order, implementation of division management and trust business compression.

In 2007, the last rectification trust left only 68 trusts. At the end of 2008, the scale of trust industry asset management was 1.22 trillion. In 2019, the scale of trust industry asset management increased to more than 26 trillion yuan, an increase of 21 times in 11 years.

According to Huatai Securities Research Report, the trust as the only financial license across the market, with the diversity of financing functions and the flexibility of business models. From 2008 to 2020, real estate and infrastructure ushered in several rounds of expansion periods, and related financial financing demand broke out. The superimposed banking cooperation opened and banks increased their assets, and the scale of the trust industry expanded rapidly. After experiencing the jumping period, high increase period and explosive period, it once expanded to 26 trillion.

What kind of business has been promoting the rapid expansion of the trust business in the past ten years? Why is the supervision starting a new round of cleanup and rectification now?

For more than ten years ups and downs

At the end of 2008, the "4 trillion" policy was launched to stimulate the development of infrastructure and real estate. The scale of the trust industry has also entered a period of rapid growth.

Loose liquidity overlay policy relaxation, the real estate market has expanded sharply, and the demand for financing has also been rapidly capacity; and local governments cooperate with the central government to start development of infrastructure construction, accelerate the establishment of local financing platforms, and seek support for supporting funding.

From 2008 to 2012, Huatai Securities Research, banks increased their assets to enter real estate and infrastructure through a trust channel by bypass. The government began to seek cooperation with the trust company in infrastructure projects. The bank has invested in a series of restrictions on the loan quota and loan restrictions through direct investment in trust loans. Channels such as cooperation expand quickly.

Although the supervision has also tightened the silver letter business during the period, the scale of trust has entered a stage of jump high -speed growth.

Huatai Securities data shows that in 2008, the balance of trust assets exceeded trillion for the first time, and achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 50%year-on-year from 2009-2012. In the five years, it has increased by 7 times. With the changes in regulatory policies after 2012, the balance of trust assets continued to increase, and the growth rate of growth slowed down. However, from 2012 to 2015, with the main start of real estate and infrastructure investment as a major starting point for stable growth. After 2012, although the balance of trust assets continued to grow, it exceeded 16 trillion yuan at the end of 2015.

Beginning in 2016, the CBRC encouraged the passage to return to the trust, which led to the expansion of the balance of trust assets in the short term. At the end of 2017, the balance of trust funds reached 26.2 trillion yuan, touching the historical peak.

The formal draft of the "New Regulations for Asset Management" in 2018 is falling, and the provisions of the break -up, de -passage, penetration of up and down, and prohibited time limit are caused, resulting in rectification Essence

In May 2019, the CBRC issued "Circular 23". In July, a trust company with an excessive growth rate of some real estate trust business and excessive increased increases. The real estate trust balance entered the strict supervision model.

The scale of trust has also entered a decline in 2018. As of the end of 2021, the scale of the trust industry fell to 20.5 trillion yuan. At the same time, since 2018, the risks of the trust industry have also begun to expose large -scale.

Huatai Securities Research Report, data shows that since 2018, the quality of the industry's assets has been under pressure. As of the end of the Q1 at the end of 2020, the number of industry risk projects has reached 643.1 billion yuan, accounting for 3.0%of the total industry assets. The industry association no longer discloses the data. According to the statistics of Yiyi Trust, in the first half of 2021 and 2022, the industry's default scale was about 1500 and 65.8 billion yuan, accounting for 4.4%and 4.5%, and the proportion continued to rise.

In addition, the amount of real estate trust default accounted for more than 80 % of the industry. Since 2020, the real estate industry supervision and financing policy has been tightened, and the amount of real estate trust breach has grown rapidly. According to the statistics of Yuxi Trust, the amount of real estate trust default in 2021 was 91.7 billion yuan, accounting for 61%of the total amount of default in the industry.

In the first half of 2022, the number of real estate trust default products was 62, accounting for 60%of the breach of contract in the industry; the amount of breach of contract was 53.9 billion yuan, which involved 82%of the amount.

The haze that broke out one after another has also affected the normal development and operation of the trust agency, especially some private trust institutions. Since 2018, the former Zhongjiang Trust (currently the Cedar Trust), Anxin Trust, Sichuan Trust, Huaxin Trust, and the New Era Trust have successively appeared in crisis, and some institutions have also changed actual controller.

Be wary of the pressure of stock real estate

Recently, industry risk incidents are still frequent. In addition to small and medium -sized trust companies, some head trust companies have also fallen into disputes.

For example, on August 1, 2022, Chongqing Trust Kunming Rongchuang City Project substantive breach of contract. The first disposal observation period has ended, and the repayment and asset disposal targets have not been completed, involving a scale of 1.9 billion yuan.

In addition, Huatai Securities pointed out that some companies have expanded radicals, and the scale and proportion of real estate business are high. In particular, private background companies need to focus on potential operating pressure.

According to the research of Huatai Securities, from the perspective of expansion, the total assets of some companies have increased significantly in the past ten years. The highest growth rate is Everbright Trust. The scale of trust assets has increased by more than 40 times from 2011-2021. Trusts have increased by 20-25 times; from the perspective of real estate business, CITIC Trust has the highest, more than 160 billion yuan, AVIC Trust, Everbright Trust, and Zhongrong Trust is about 90 billion yuan. Yuan, other trust companies are below 60 billion yuan; from the perspective of real estate business, Beijing Trust and Changan Trust have exceeded 30%, Xingye Trust and CITIC Trust account for 24%and 16%, respectively. %.

Huatai Securities stated that it is necessary to be alert to the pressure of stock risk and pay attention to the conduction path and policy measures. Although the scale of the trust industry has dropped significantly under strict supervision, the total asset size at the end of the first quarter of 2022 still exceeds 20 trillion yuan, and the scale of basic industries and real estate trusts has reached 1.6 trillion yuan. The leverage rate is at a high level and the continuous impact of real estate pressure on the trust industry cannot be underestimated, especially paying attention to subsequent risk interpretation and conduction effects.

In this context, the above -mentioned head trust agencies told reporters that because of the continuous mines in the real estate industry since the second half of 2021, many trust institutions have been implicated very seriously. Therefore, the company is currently suspended for the real estate business and no longer adds new business scale.

Regarding the transformation and development of the trust industry, Huatai Securities Research Report stated that supervision and encouraging the industry to return to the origin and explore innovative business models. In recent years, regulatory promotion of the trust industry's de -passages, transformation and returning to the source of trust, service -oriented trust, family trust, charity trust and other businesses are expected to become a better segmentation track. Innovative business needs to be deeply cultivated in professional capabilities and resource construction. We believe that in the future, trust companies that can strengthen and cultivate professional fields in the future will be able to take a differentiated path.

Those who disappear in the list of Fortune 500 companies take care of infants and young children: high -priced education or "kidnapping" the old man, the United States restricts high -performance semiconductor exports, which areas will be affected?

- END -