The mobile phone is cold, and the sea of machine has become accumulated in the sea

In the first four months of 2022, domestic mobile phone shipments decreased by more than 30 % year -on -year, and the market was pessimistic. But at the same time, domestic brands have sent new machines, and the new machine released in April is more than 50%year -on -year. What is the logic behind this? Can a new machine save the bleak market? How much help can 618 bring?

‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍2022年上半年，手机销量大幅下滑 ，但是新机发布速度却屡创新高 。

According to the statistics of Xinong Institute, from January to April 2022, domestic mobile phone shipments totaling 87.425 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%. And there is no recovery trend -shipments in April were 18.079 million units, a year -on -year decrease of 34.2%. It is rumored that OV and Xiaomi have lowered expectations or orders for orders, about 20 %.

But at the same time, domestic mobile phones have released new machines that have reached a new high.

According to the statistics of Xinong Institute, in April 2022, there were 39 new models of domestic mobile phones, an increase of 50%year -on -year.

According to the statistics of Weibo Da V Xiaoyi Max, in April 2022, OPPO issued 20 new models, vivo sent 14 models (both include sub -brands), and 8 models of Honor and Xiaomi (including Redmi) each each each. , All exceeded the level of the same period last year. If you calculate the models released by the manufacturers in May in May, this number will be more considerable.

Mobile phone observer believes that in the same period of previous years, a brand has released 5 models. The number of this year is a bit exaggerated.

In the second half of the year, will the waiting for each family have a huge pressure of destocking?

How much is the inventory pressure of mobile phone dealers?

Sun Yanzan, chairman of the Worker Think Tank, believes that as of March 31, more than 30 million mobile phone manufacturers have more than 30 million mobile phone inventory.

"At the end of the first year, each company will conduct a comprehensive judgment based on the fourth quarter or the same period. There is an expectation for the amount in the first quarter of the next year." Sun Yanzheng said, "According to the data of the Xintong Institute, we will put the figures last year's figures last year. Compared with the number this year, I asked the supply chain, not just this number. Because Apple's share in the first quarter was particularly large, it also squeezed the market share of domestic mobile phone brands. "

So why are there so much inventory?

"The annual planning of mobile phone manufacturers is done in advance. In terms of transmission, if it is said that a year is 190 million market capacity. According to the past algorithms, according to the annual KPI, it will reach 200 million this year, and it will reach 200 million this year. There will be 10 million more, and there will be about several models in these 10 million braces. These have been set at the beginning of the year. "Gao Jianlun, the person in charge of the previous transmission mobile Internet technology, said," Qualcomm and other chip manufacturers will also have these chip manufacturers. Communicate with mobile phone brands half a year to one year in advance, these are all in the planned plan. "

During the implementation of the plan, there is no expected seriousness of this year's epidemic, which is an important reason for the backlog of inventory. In addition, the tight chip and the situation in Russia and Ukraine have affected the mobile phone market.

In addition to the channel side, there are backlogs on the supply chain.

"The annual production plan of the supply chain is also good. They are generally calculated based on the sales data of previous years, and then the schedule and stocking are carried out. "Gao Jianlun said.

Minsheng Securities analysis believes that mobile phone manufacturers have sold more new machines in the fourth quarter of 2021, but the sales of Q4 and 2022Q1 are not satisfactory, resulting in the backlog of inventory. Until the second quarter of this year, there are still de -inventory pressure on the channels of major mobile phone manufacturers. According to the industry chain verification, after several months of de-inventory operations, the domestic market mobile channel inventory is nearly 50 days, which is still much higher than the conventional 25-30 days.

Fate to send a new machine, de -inventory good medicine

New machines for mobile phone brands are universal practices for destocking.

The figure below is a statistics made by Digital blogger Xiao Yi Max. According to this statistics, from January to April, each mobile phone brand released a total of 60 models.

It can be seen that OPPO and vivo are ranked one or two. Lu Yan Finance asked mobile phone manufacturers to verify, vivo replied that the company's new products were released in April this year, such as X Fold, X Note, X80, S15, and the IQOO brand NEO6, which did not give the official data of the specific number of specific models. Essence

"If 30 million mobile phone inventory, there are 20 million finished products and 10 million semi -finished products and core components. The company's approach is to change the packaging box directly, and then upgrade, it can be sold as a new machine. "Sun Yanzheng said," If it is a semi -finished product, you can sell it as a new machine. "

In addition, constantly sending a new machine is a great benefit to de -inventory is that it can drive the sales of old models. Some brands have played hunger marketing after sending new machines. The new machine cannot be bought. At the same time, it is promoted to promote consumers to buy old machines. This is very common at the channel.

"Because there will be news only when the mobile phone is just released, it will be given to the evaluation media to send an evaluation, and the heat will pass, and then the next wave of new machines will be sent. When the new machine is sent, There will also be a long preview period. At this time, the news is scattered at the same time, saying that the old machine is cost -effective, so that consumers can buy the old machine. "Gao Jianlun said," The mobile phone is the highest in a month or two, and then gradually came down. After three months, it gradually dilutes, so many brand manufacturers will operate the brand's heat through new machines. "" These new machines are actually variants, all of which are public modules, and may have a slight difference in individual parameters. " Gao Jianlun said that the manufacturer will have some strategies. "If the old machines are not selling well, the manufacturer will improve a little bit, and then use the new name. Not so much, but to iterate in a small amount to see the reaction of consumers, and slowly reduce the inventory in this way. "

Many times, the pressure of inventory will be on the channel, especially offline stores.

"For channel vendors, the backlog inventory means capital pressure. At this time, channel vendors will not enter a new machine, so brands may use some ways to exchange with channel merchants. For example Model. In this way, channel vendors can continue to sell new machines. As for those old machines that have been retracted, it can be sold to operators and allows operators to digest. "Gao Jianlun said.

The final death line of destocking

In addition to the above -mentioned fate, mobile phone manufacturers also have some other destocking strategies.

Turn on a tablet is also a method of response. Some manufacturers cut off half of the products in the price section of the thousand yuan machine, and the remaining raw materials are made of tablets.

"It's not difficult to cut into the track of the tablet. To put it plainly, it is a large mobile phone. There must be screens. There are chips. The difference is the size. The situation is more common in low -priced mobile phones, because the profit of low -cost mobile phones is very low, or there is no, the same parts, the same parts, will be upgraded to large tablets. "Gao Jianlun said that this trend is obvious.

"Because many cities are now being closed and isolated, whether at home to see iQiyi, at home and some light computer office, tablets are needed."

What time does these inventory digestion?

"The inventory must be consumed before July, that is, the second quarter." Sun Yanzheng said, "During the 618 period, there will be many practices of stimulating consumption in this round of war. As a result, early consumption is attracted to the consumption demand in the third quarter to June, so it will affect the sales in the third quarter, and it will maintain the embarrassing situation of the current year -on -year decline in the third quarter. "

"In fact, there are some inventory of accessories, such as cameras and memory, it doesn't matter. Because of its long preservation period, it sells like a machine." Li Mingxin (pseudonym) in the mobile phone industry said, "But SOC and CPUs The inventory is not good. This stuff is like seafood. You released a Snapdragon 8GEN1 machine in February, which can be sold for 4000.

Sun Yanxuan believes that by the fourth quarter, the Chinese mobile phone market will be stabilized.

"Now the consumer's replacement cycle is long. It turned out to be 32 months, and it has been extended to 36 months. In the fourth quarter, there will be some new needs for changing the machine, and the replacement must be changed." "In addition, in the fourth quarter, Apple will release new machines, and domestic brands will follow the rhythm of Apple to release the flagship machine, which can be driven as a whole."

"The strategy of mobile phone manufacturers in the fourth quarter is to establish high -end. Although the sales of mobile phones have fallen very much year -on -year. In fact, the market with more than 4,500 yuan has not changed much."

Minsheng Securities believes that in Q3 in 2022, mobile phone sales, and new high -end new machines will also be released densely. The new SOCs such as Qualcomm Snapdragon 8GEN1+and MTK Tianyi 8100 have been released, and the models equipped with related solutions will also be released densely. Global mobile phones are expected to return to growth.

What is the worst result?

Li Mingxin is not optimistic about the situation in the third and fourth quarters.

"Q1 is not enough, it is already established facts. Q2 has not ended, but it is only this month. Q2 has two months of control. Beijing and Shanghai are the most affected. 50 million people in the north are the most consumed, so Q2 is not good. Everyone treats 618 as a life -saving straw and wants to make up, but the absolute value is definitely not comparable to last year. "Li Mingxin said," Now the entire industry is very pessimistic and is doing the worst plan. "

For mobile phone manufacturers, there is another way to go to inventory quickly, that is, the price is reduced in disguise.

"They will make prices in disguise through promotional and gift methods. The inventory cannot be consumed in June.

The worst situation is to reduce the price directly.

"It's risky to cut prices too much, which will affect the brand premium capacity of the mobile phone. If the market knows your sales strategy, everyone will not buy your starting machine anymore." Gao Jianlun said.

"The biggest problem with product inventory is the price decline. If it is not handled in July and August, it will eventually be smashed into his own hands." Sun Yanzheng said, "To deal with inventory, it is an iron task for brand manufacturers. ","

In 2014, in the 3G era, Sun Yanxuan warned the industry to invent 200 million in inventory. Six months later, the backlog inventory brought the opportunity to adjust the pattern to the industry.EssenceIn the first quarter of 2022, the backlog of 30 million inventory was not large compared to the 200 million yuan 8 years ago, but it will also be a small adjustment for the "Apple+Mirong OV" pattern.At the same time, the inventory backlog will also affect the product planning of each mobile phone manufacturer for next year.

In the stock market+epidemic factors, the mobile phone industry will enter a new round of adjustment.

The mobile phone is cold, and the sea of machine has become accumulated in the sea

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