Falling below $ 1700, will the price of gold fall all the way?

Before the announcement of non -agricultural employment data and unemployment rates in the United States in August, the market generally expects that the US employment market will still be better, at least enough to cooperate with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle. The continuous interest rate hike expectations have remained strong in the US dollar index. As of the fifth consecutive month of international gold prices, the international gold price has been closed for the fifth consecutive month. This is the longest monthly decline in the month since 2018. In this case, the international gold price fell below the $ 1700/ounce mark on September 1st, and the last time it dropped at $ 1,700/ounce was still August 9, 2021. The market continues to look at the prospects of gold prices under the cycle of hikes. It is believed that the price of gold will even further test the $ 1,600 mark after falling below $ 1700/ounce. Will the non -agricultural data on the evening of September 2 support this view? Will international gold prices continue to fall all the way?

International spot gold price daily map

The gold price trend began in the past two weeks on August 22, and it fell below the $ 1700/ounce on September 1

(This article is an original article of China Gold Network. The content is for reference only, and does not constitute operating suggestions or investment guidelines.)

1

Domestic analysts have a lot of views

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Golden Refined Analyst Luan Bingqin believes that the continuous decline in the price of gold is not ruled out. It is an early pricing of the non -agricultural employment report in the United States in August. After the data is announced, there may be reverse fluctuations. From a technical point of view, the short -term K -line empty head is not changed, the short -cycle moving average is arranged, and the differential moving moving average (MACD) maintains the continuous volume of the green column of the dead fork down. ~ 1676 USD/ounce support.

Recently, the toughness of US economic data has shown the Fed's radical interest rate hikes to curb inflation. The US dollar index refreshed a 20 -year high to 109.99 again, and the price of gold fell for 3 consecutive trading days. The market focused on the August non -agricultural employment report announced in the evening. According to the latest data on federal fund interest rate futures, the Federal Reserve ’s third consecutive 75 basis interest rate hikes at the third consecutive policy meeting of the Federal Reserve exceeded 70%. If the U.S. non -agricultural employment data, which is about to be announced on Friday (September 2), will continue to be hot, it may help the US dollar to start a new upward trend, and the decline in gold prices will be strengthened.

Duan Enxiong, a precious metal researcher at the Dawei cargo, believes that the current price of gold is very critical. Gold prices may be consolidated near $ 1700/ounce. By September, the Fed will choose to choose the direction after the market raising interest rates. Based on the follow -up path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the US economic situation, it is expected that the possibility of the trend of gold prices is small.

In the recent period of time, the US dollar index has risen rapidly, which has reached a new high in nearly 20 years. With the rise of the US dollar index, gold prices have declined. Falling to nearly $ 1700/ounce, the increase from the end of July to mid -August. The weakening of gold prices has a lot to do with the strengthening of the US dollar index. The rise in the US dollar index is caused by the factors of the United States. The Federal Reserve's tough interest rate hike is the main factor inside. After the Jackson Hall Annual Meeting Powell spoke, the market believed that the probability of 75 basis points in September reached 70%. Under this expectation, the spreads between the United States and the major European countries have increased the opportunity cost of gold, which reduces the attractiveness of gold. The main factor of the external is that Europe is weak. Recently, the energy of European countries has been short of energy, European inflation is still up, and the economic recovery itself is insufficient, the European economic prospects are even more dim. The trend of the euro and the pound against the US dollar has declined, pushing up the US dollar.

Independent gold analyst Lu Chao believes that the $ 1680/ounce will be broken. Once the key level of the medium and long -term head of $ 1680/ounce is fell, it means that the short trend will be fully developed. The price of gold may fall back to the level before the outbreak of the global new crown pneumonia, about $ 1,450/ounce, between $ 1,500/ounce.

Yesterday, the International Gold Price Day K -line received a bald head with a bald head, and recorded the trend of Sanlian Yin in the daily line. The gold price fell back below the $ 1700/ounce mark. At this point, the previous long -headed market was completely rewarded. The Si Lianyang on the week was completely denied. In the context of the 5th consecutive yin, the weekly trend also returned to the decline. At this time, investors cannot be lucky in the gold market, and it is the best strategy. At present, the gold market lacks confidence in buying, and it is difficult to resist the pressure of the United States for continuous interest rate hikes.

2

Overseas views are different

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Daoming Securities' commodity analysts reiterated their prospects for international gold prices, saying that the prospects of gold prices were dim. The main reason is that the Fed issued a signal of further interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening, which will further take positive monetary policy actions. Daoming Securities analysts believe that after the price of gold price falls below the upward trend of $ 1675/ounce in nearly 10 years, each decline increases the possibility of precious metal collapse. Investors should pay close attention to the speculative positions in the gold market, and the speculative positions of the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have dropped sharply since March this year.

Since the end of July, Daoming Securities has continued to shorten gold. Since mid -August, gossip has been continuously made. However, the agency also noticed some positive factors in the market, such as the gold market continued to be supported by strong needs from China. Swiss official trade data shows that gold exports to mainland China increased by 150%in July. 80.1 tons of gold was shipped from Switzerland to mainland China in July, which was the largest monthly shipment since December 2016. Standard Chartered Bank believes that despite the current lack of confidence in the gold market, the price has fallen below $ 1,700/ounce, but further downlink space is still limited. In the months of this summer, the US dollar stronger damage caused major damage to gold prices. The US dollar index was located near the high position near the nearly 20 years due to the Fed's eagle speech. For gold, good news is unlikely to fall, because most of the downward risks have been digested.

Standard Chartered Bank said in the latest report that although the price of gold is facing major downlink risks, it has also benefited from factors such as the risk of economic recession in the United States, the physical market that is sensitive to price, and the continuous rise in inflation. Standard Chartered Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the September interest rate interest rate, and then suspend interest rate hikes at the November and December meetings, which is slightly more obvious than the market expectations. The reason is that the US economy may lose motivation in the fourth quarter of 2022, and American inflation will begin to slow, although it is still at a high level. Worries about the slowdown in economic growth and risk of decline will have a decline in buffering gold prices. The bank is expected to slow down from non -agricultural jobs in the United States in August, and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.5%.

Charlie Morris, chief investor of byte tree asset management, said that gold was strong assets during the US economic recession. He still believed that the price of gold will rise to $ 7,000/ounce at the end of this century. There are signs that the large -scale rebound of the US dollar may be over. Although the US dollar index has risen to nearly 20 years, Morris said that the eagle statement made by the Federal Reserve President Powell did not provide any new driving force. At its peak, this is when gold can return to their own position.

Morris's outlook is released on the occasion of the Federal Reserve's 75 basis points in the next month. When investors realize that high inflation will continue, they will see the value of gold, and the Fed is almost powerless. Considering the interest rate level, gold is very close to the fair value, but once people realize the mistakes of the Fed's inflation, a major change will occur. Just as Morris is optimistic about gold, he believes that the potential of silver is greater. Underground 30%.

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