Coal prices have skyrocketed, Asian Coal King earns 200 billion yuan in 3 months

Coal rolls come again.

Text 丨 Chinese Business Tao Zhang Jingbo

History, reproduce the dramatic scene:

A few years ago, people had wrote a promise for coal. At the end of 2021, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, the negotiating representatives enjoyed it:

Send coal into history!

No one expected that in just a few months, this kind of dirty fossil fuel was reunited, and even triggered a global war -grained war.

[How crazy is Europeans grabbing coal? .

"It's really crazy!"

In Germany, in recent months, people's desire for coal scares coal merchants. Starting in June, the purchase phone continued.

"Coal is so hot this summer, hearing unheard of ... Everyone wants to buy coal." Berlin coal merchant Engelk said frankly.

In the past, his customers were mainly mature customers. This year, there are many new faces pouring in. Some customers can't wait to go directly to the warehouse to pick up the loose coal.

Not only Germany, the whole of Europe is caught in the enthusiasm of coal.

The most direct cause of this fanaticism is the Russian -Ukuro conflict that broke out at the beginning of the year. The EU embargo Russia coal, overnight, tens of millions of tons of coal disappeared from the market.

In order to make up for the gap, European countries are looking for coal.

From African Hope to Newcaser, Australia ... Many routes that have gradually deserted because of coal fell out of favor.

Coal -deduction from the United States, Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia continued to drive to Europe. On the Rhine River, the air was permeated in the air again.

How crazy is Europeans grabbing coal?

In just one Germany, it thrown a large purchase order from Indonesia, which is equivalent to the total coal imports in the past five years.

In the first half of this year, the entire Europe imported 809,000 tons from the United States, and 1.3 million tons of imports from Colombia ... the total coal imports soared by 49%.

South Africa's coal exports to Europe have increased by 8 times.

In this regard, the person in charge of Aisuo Mining in South Africa said: Europeans have become a little nervous and uneasy, and they are beginning to find other mine sources.

This lion -opening purchase also allows Indonesia, Australia, the United States, and South Africa to start full load operations.

The two largest coal companies in the United States, as well as a large coal company in South Africa, stated that the production capacity in 2022 has been reserved, and coal -free can be sold.

"Not even 200 tons of excess coal," said the person in charge of XCOAL in the United States.

To make matters worse, it is more than Europe. In Asia, from Japan to India ... many countries have joined the war -granitive war.

In June, Japan's power coal imports were 8.76 million tons, an increase of 17%year -on -year. Although India has denied coal shortage, its Ministry of Foreign Affairs quietly negotiated with many coal export countries.

Even ignoring the US warning, Russian coal and oil are purchased at low prices. Facing the question of the United States, Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng replied:

India's one -month purchase is less than one afternoon purchase in Europe.

In this global war -grabbing war, people who were too slow to start were worried about the upcoming winter.

As the most active country of embargo Russia coal, Poland is about to exhaust the inventory, and suddenly discovers that he is facing the dilemma of coal -free buying.

70%of the country's electricity comes from coal, and 3.8 million households still rely on coal to warm.

In order not to freeze in winter, many Polish citizens have to wait for a long line to buy coal. A retired elderly who has been lined up for three days, can't help but vomit:

"Unexpectedly, it will live a more difficult day than the Cold War."

Some people have made a lot of money because they can't buy coal crazy, but some people make a lot of money.

In the past year, the price of international coal has soared repeatedly, from less than 50 US dollars per ton to more than $ 400.

The performance of global coal companies turned over, and from a large loss a few years ago, it turned into daily gold.

The coal business of the commodity giant Jianeng has soared 9 times in the first half of the year. The profit of China's coal industry in the first half of the year will exceed the overall profit of the photovoltaic industry.

The rise in coal prices has even rewritten the list of richest people.

Since the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Indian coal king Adoni has doubled its value, and personal net assets exceeded US $ 130 billion, second only to Musk and Bezos, far exceeding the bell.

This is the first time that Asians have ranked among the top three global rich lists.

[Economically, this is a disaster]

In human history, the price of 1 ton of coal is never as high as today.

This is not only the Russian -Ukraine conflict that makes this kind of energy that is about to be abandoned again, but also a series of unbalanced supply and demand caused by complicated factors.

Initially, this imbalance happened around October last year.

As the epidemic relieves, the global economic recovery has surged in demand for coal, leading to a shortage of coal. In this case, the two major manufacturing countries that depend on coal power -India and China are particularly obvious.

Due to the shortage of coal, India made electric shortcomings, and the country was on the edge of a large power outage. With more than half of the power plant, there are only 2 days left for coal inventory.

Mumbai encountered a large range of power outages, including Ford, including Ford, had to withdraw from India.

In China, electrical shortage has caused power limit for many provinces and cities across the country, and industrial enterprises have a large area of ​​production.

The price of coal is like a loyal Mustang, and when the relevant departments are densely introduced to the policies, they still do it. It wasn't until the Development and Reform Commission sent an inspection team that it was stunned.

Since then, as the global shipping has returned to normal, the price of coal has gradually fallen. But then, the Russian -Ukraine conflict broke out. The rise in natural gas prices has led to Europe and the United States, and once again set their sights on cheap coal power. Many European countries have announced that they have restarted the coal power plan.

Germany has resumed 10 Gigga -Miles to idle coal -fired power plants through an emergency decree. "The situation is severe," said Haber, Deputy Prime Minister of Germany, said, "Although restarting coal power is painful, it is necessary."

On the one hand, the demand for coal is surging, and on the other hand, the global coal production capacity is approaching the limit, and it is difficult to expand the capacity in the short term.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 8 billion tons of coal was produced worldwide in 2021. Among them, only 1 billion tons are used for export.

In the first half of 2022, affected by factors such as the aging of ports, mining equipment, and weather, the major domestic capacity of the world's major coal exports declined.

The Richard Coal Pier in South Africa has disappeared for a long time, and the Port of Bridge, Australia was forced to close because of floods.

To make matters worse, many of these coal export countries have used coal powers.

Taking the world's largest coal overseas Indonesia as an example, due to strong domestic demand, coal exports were suspended at the beginning of the year to protect domestic supply.

Australia, which is electrostatic, has also begun to restrict coal exports.

In addition, the sudden high temperature caused the electricity consumption in European countries to increase, but because of the Rhine Rhine, which was on the verge of disconnection, it was difficult to support it. The loading capacity of the boat was only 1/3 of the usual usual.

Severe supply and demand imbalances led to soaring coal prices and eventually transmitted to electricity prices.

The electricity price of the European Energy Exchange was almost six times the same period last year. In the past two months, the price has doubled. The electricity price of each MW (MWH) of Germany and France approached or even exceeded the $ 1,000 mark.

Calculating into crude oil is equivalent to $ 1,000 per barrel of crude oil.

"Economically, this is a disaster." The owner of a restaurant in Berlin complained. If the electricity price continues to rise, if the gas cannot be bought, "we can only close the door, no choice."

The operator's trouble is not an illusion.

Coal shortage and electricity prices have skyrocketed, and the competitiveness of Germany and even Europe is eroding. Many people worry: "Europe will face a devastating winter."

[Send coal into history]

The return of Europe to the era of coal is a setback on human carbon reduction.

Just a few years ago, people were still looking forward to the end of the coal era. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference at the end of 2021, the negotiating representatives enjoyed it:

Send coal into history!

To this end, many European countries represented by Germany have formulated an ambitious carbon emission reduction plan.

Since 2008, European countries have been vigorously reduced and closed coal -fired power plants, and the entire coal industry has shrunk sharply. The gray dots in the figure represent the closed coal -fired power plant.

This unprecedented carbon reduction action has begun as early as the 1990s.

In 1990, 12 countries in the European Union produced coal. By 2020, there are only two coal -producing countries of Poland and Czech Republic.

In the eyes of many experts, Europe's coal -to -regret plans are too aggressive, resulting in sharp decline in production capacity, and many capitals have withdrawn from coal mining and fire power plants.

In the end, a sudden energy crisis exposed European coal shortcomings.

Returning to the era of coal is undoubtedly a painful moment. But in fact, coal, as a cheap and reliable energy, has never stayed away from us.

In the past 20 years, coal is still the largest source of electricity in human society. Its proportion in human energy consumption not only decreased, but has increased slightly.

According to the Forecast of the International Energy Agency, the total global coal sales will reach 8 billion tons in 2022, returning to the historical high set in 2013.

Behind this is the dependence of many developing countries, which is dependent on coal.

"Without coal, we can't cook. We have no choice but to use coal." Jamanda Monida, who lives in Indian slums and lives with zero workers.

In Poland, coal is now hope. "Although it is harmful to the body, it is better than winter than winter." A retired elderly who lined up coal.

Even for developed countries in Europe and the United States, coal is also a stable and reliable reserve energy source. After all, new energy such as wind power and solar energy is affected by weather factors and fluctuates greatly.

The global coal -grabbing war that broke out in 2022 was a living textbook.

It reminds us that new energy replaces the road of traditional fossil fuels such as coal and oil, and it is destined not to be flat, nor can it be achieved overnight.

Many years ago, Germany, Britain, and the United States, because they were unable to see South Africa rely on thermal power, decided to provide the country with 8.5 billion US dollars to support its energy transformation.

Today, Germany is in turn and has to import coal from South Africa.

The return of this history seems a bit ironic. However, the brief return cannot stop the global development trend of carbon emission reduction in the next decades.

As of now, more than 100 countries and regions around the world have proposed carbon neutralization.

As a large carbon emissions country, China has formulated ambitious "double carbon" strategic goals, and leads the show in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and wind power.

Regarding the energy crisis facing Europe at the moment, German Prime Minister Tsutz also said:

"Restarting coal power is only temporary ... Germany is still committed to carbon neutrality by 2045."

Many signs show that carbon reduction is the general trend. Although there will be repeated in the middle, although coal will still play an important role in the short term, the end of the coal era will come sooner or later.

【Reference Information】

1. "The EU's First Coal Power Poland, the people start to line up to buy coal" Observer Network

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