"New Half Army" Cheng Dangdang Red Fried Chicken, see how the treasure fund manager grasps the main investment of investment

China Fund Newspaper Ma Zutong

In the third quarter of 2022, the equity market continued to move forward, the overseas market fluctuated violently, and the structural quotation of the A -share market was interpreted. At the time of market adjustment, the three major sectors of the "New Half Army" have emerged in different troops, a strong counterattack, and the follow -up trend has aroused market attention.

The so -called "new semi -army" refers to the three major sections of new energy, semiconductor, and national defense army. Since April, the "new semi -army" rotated one after another, the relay has risen, and its performance has been strong.

On the 25th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Energy Electronics Industry (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") to promote the development of the energy electronics industry and comprehensively help the carbon peak carbon neutrality. Under the news surface catalytic, the new energy sector once again raised the tide of stopping again on the 26th. Since the second quarter, the new energy sector has risen, driving the relevant theme funds to "return blood" over 50%, known as the "rebound pioneer".

The semiconductor sector has changed from the end of April this year and ushered in a strong rebound. As of August 26, from 4666.85 points, the lows rose to 6055.88 points, up nearly 40%.

With the help of state -owned enterprise reform, with the implementation of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" order, the national defense military industry sector once again became the focus of the market. From the lowest point on April 27, the military industry's strong counterattack, as of August 26, rebounded nearly 40%.

Will the "New Half Army" become the main investment line in the second half of the year? How should investment opportunities be grasped? Fund Jun will introduce the fund managers who have achieved more prominent performance in the "new semi -army" field. They are Oriental Fund Jiang Qian and Penghua Fund Chen Long. Fund Jun will analyze their investment philosophy and framework and share their research and judgment of the market outlook to readers.

Oriental Fund: Jiang Qian

Oriental Fund Jiang Qian, a master's degree in business management of Tsinghua University, has 12 years of securities experience. He has been a senior analyst at GCWConsulting, senior manager of CITIC Securities, research director of Tianan Property Insurance Co., Ltd., and investment director of Bohai Life Insurance Co., Ltd. In May 2017, he joined the Oriental Fund Management Co., Ltd., and is currently a assistant to the general manager of the Oriental Fund, the deputy director of the equity investment, and a member of the public offering investment decision -making committee.

As of August 25, Jiang Qian managed 8 products with a management period of 5 years, and the annual annual return rate of the fund reached 38.08%. (Data source: Zhijun Technology)

Jiang Qian's employment experience is more special. He has worked at a securities firm and insurance company, and later became a public fund manager. Jiang Qian believes that investment must continue to learn new things. Only with the changes in the times can we grasp the direction of investment. The unique experience experience has created Jiang Qian's profound and solid investment and research skills. In many years of practice, Jiang Qian has continued to learn from herself and keep pace with the times, and gradually formed an investment framework combining "top -down" and "bottom -up".

In the investment, Jiang Qian multiplied the "comparison of the middle viewing industry" as the core. From top to bottom to find social changes, bringing investment directions. The strategy configuration grows individual stocks, supplemented by the excavation of the stock -style individual stocks.

Jiang Qian's products are mainly growing in the middle market. The stock industry preferences concentrated. The overall positioning style is more inclined to information technology, industry, raw materials, optional consumption and other industries. The holding of its heavy positions is shorter and the industry distribution is changing.

Based on the comparison of the middle viewing industry, Jiang Qian focused on the prosperity of the industry and looked for the confirmation from 1 to N. Jiang Qian mainly observes the industry's prosperity through the following three aspects: First, whether the industry space is large enough and whether it can accommodate enough companies to develop; the second is that the annualized growth rate is considerable; the third is to determine whether the industry's certainty is high, It is not easy to be subverted.

In terms of specific industries, Jiang Qian recently visited the Chinese Fund's self -made column "Investment Hot Story" that he was optimistic about the pan -new energy field and the electronics, computers, and communication industries that are expected to benefit from emerging technology. In addition, Jiang Qian believes that emerging consumer tracks also have good investment prospects in the fields of medical beauty, cosmetics, and smart home appliances.

Faced with the strong rebound of the semiconductor sector recently, Jiang Qian proposed that "we may see the low point of view of the 3-4 years cycle of the semiconductor industry in the third quarter, and it may have entered the left configuration range." Jiang Qian believes that production capacity is still the same as the production capacity is still the production capacity. The king, the prosperity differentiation, is optimistic about the direction of the power semiconductor for a long time, while the technical barriers and product characteristics are the key to the choice of chip design companies.

Talking about the new energy sector, Jiang Qian emphasized: "The global competitiveness of the domestic midstream manufacturing industry chain of new energy vehicles is also very strong. The multi -dimensional dimensions from the scale of production capacity, the coordination of industrial chain, and the advantages of technical costs are all global. In the process of growth, it has a better chance to benefit. "

In the process of capturing high -quality stocks, Jiang Qian pays great attention to the creation of the company's growth. Jiang Qian emphasized that there are two dimensions of growth and creating value: First, the growth of enterprises can create value for society and users. Shareholders create reasonable returns. Therefore, the income obtained from investors from the secondary market is essentially accompanied by the internal growth of the enterprise, including both shareholders' returns presented in dividends and rising stock prices.

"Under the strategy of value growth, all we have to do is to find the margin of security in the past certain facts that have occurred in the past. Based on the company's past facts, future judgments and possible results, in the relatively uncertain development process, in a relatively uncertain development process Looking for a relatively certain "option". "Jiang Qian said. Speaking of the future market, Oriental Fund Jiang Qian will control the risk warehouse and operate more positive. Jiang Qian said that in the second half of 2022, the Chinese economy will enter a new round of credit upward cycle, and the global economy will enter a decline period. The yield is expected to peak. A shares may continue the previous trend and show the trend of shocks. However, the industry configuration in the second half of the year will appear two scenarios according to the intensity of social finance and economic recovery. In the case of strong liquidity weak recovery, the industry configuration is based on the trend of new industries of independent boom. Digging. And if the actual effect of steady growth exceeds expectations and the growth rate of new social integration will accelerate, it will interpret the "social integration driver" as the main line. The infrastructure chain, real estate chain and bank insurance are expected to perform well. For the value of the broader market.

Penghua Fund: Chen Long

"After the beginning of the year, after the extreme adjustment of April, the prosperity growth style has ushered in V-type repair in May-June. In addition to follow-up style repair, the national defense military industry has also experienced the prosperity and state-owned enterprise reform. Two-wheel drive. From July-August, the core logic of the sector turned to the performance verification of the interim report. "Penghua Fund Chen Longru summarized the recent development and change of military industry.

Chen Long, has 13 years of experience in the securities fund. He joined the Penghua Fund in 2009 and served as assistant to the financial engineering director of the supervision and audit department, quantitative research director of the quantitative research director of the derivative investment department, and successively engaged in financial engineering and quantitative research. He is currently the deputy general manager/fund manager of the quantitative and derivative investment department. With rich experience in index product management, it has deeply studied many industry indexes.

As of now, Chen Long has 6 years of management experience, 14 years of management products, and the scale of the management has reached 15.87 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the products managed by Chen Long are passive funds. (Data source: Zhijun Technology, as of August 26)

Talking about the investment in the military industry, Chen Long emphasized the importance of adherence. He proposed: "First of all, the military industry needs to have a certain belief in it. Second, the characteristics of the high fluctuations of the military sector must have a certain risk tolerance. In order to carry the retracement and fluctuations in the short term. Finally, we must be brave to overcome the weakness of human nature, and dare to operate and invest in reverse. "

In the second quarter of 2022, the A -share market continued to fluctuate, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index hovered around 3200 points. In this context, Chen Long's interval yield was 11.21%in the past March, and the income results were quite bright.

Facing the repair of the military industry sector, Chen Long said: "This round of restoration since April 27 is indeed far exceeded market expectations, but the logic of the bottom layer is the month -on -year recovery of the economy and the replenishment of stock funds brought about by loose liquidity. At present, the incremental funds are mainly from the north and some institutions. From the data of the two melodies, individual investors are still cautious and their emotions have not improved significantly. "

Chen Long believes that the opportunity to rise is mainly from two aspects: one is the restoration of the economy exceeding expectations, focusing on the improvement of the medium and long -term loans of enterprises and residents; the other is to add new funds to the market, focusing on the issuance of partial stock funds.

Looking forward to the investment opportunities of the National Defense Army Workers Plate, Chen Long recommends the New Year's Eve in the 4th quarter. The core logic is as follows: First, valuation switching, this is also the core logic of the New Year's Eve quotation last year;

The second is to pay attention to the latest developments in the industry displayed at the Pearl Air Show at the end of September, including new weapons and equipment models, domestic alternatives, etc.;

Third, the promotion of equity incentives, this is expected to run through the entire second half of the year;

Fourth, the expectations of new orders. At present, it is expected to copy the trend of the second half of last year, and the overall trend may be more regional.

Risk reminder: The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious. Fund's past performance does not indicate its future performance. Fund research and analysis do not constitute investment consulting or consulting services, nor does it constitute any substantial investment suggestions or commitments to readers or investors. Please read the "Fund Contract", "Recruitment Manual" and related announcements carefully.

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