Policy blows warm wind!This section has increased by more than 60%in 4 months, and the fund manager has already arranged in advance ...

China Fund Daily Jia Zhanying

Due to the recent reports of the global high temperature and the US "2022 Anspos of Afrture Act", the Wind Photovoltaic Index has risen more than 60%since the April lows. dust.

Seeing that it is about to become the main line that runs through this year, but at this time, because of the industry's rolls, it even alarmed the relevant departments, making the photovoltaic sector continue to sluggly since last Friday.

On August 24th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Coordinated Development of the Fresh Pepse Industry Chain Supply Chain Supply Chain", which requires based on long -term goals, optimized industrial layout, and rationally guided upstream and downstream construction to expand rhythm to avoid industrial convergence, vicious competition and vicious competition and vicious competition. Market monopoly, etc.

In this regard, the institution believes that due to the continuous mismatch of the industry's stage of supply and demand, the content of the policy is timely and necessary, and it is still firmly optimistic about the development of the photovoltaic industry.

They believe that the core point of the current photovoltaic industry is still in demand growth, and competition is secondary contradiction. The photovoltaic industry has always been greater than the supply. The current expansion will be digested by long-term growth space. From the perspective of growth rate 2022-2024, it is a rare period of high growth in history in history. The degree of competition is better than the market.

Taking this opportunity, the Fund Jun also introduced the three fund managers of the three long -term optimism sectors. They are Guangfa Fund Zheng Chengran, Cinda Australia, Li Shuyan, and Cathay Fund Wang Yang. By analyzing their respective investment styles and frameworks, help everyone understand the investment concepts behind these outstanding investors.

Guangfa Fund: Zheng Chengran

As early as the second half of 2020, the public offerings were concerned that there was a track fund fund in the high -end manufacturing industry. It was likely to win the public offering champion of the year. Its manager was Zheng Chengran, the fledgling fund manager. In the end, the product did not live up to expectations. In 2020, 133.83%of net value returns were achieved, ranking seventh in the revenue in 8172 partial stock funds (data source: Wind).

Zheng Chengran entered Peking University in 2008. He is a Department of Microelectronics and Master's majors. Then he joined the Guangfa Fund in 2015 as an industry researcher and engaged in research on the new energy industry. In February 2020, he joined the Growth Investment Department and started managing public fund -raising funds since May 2020.

Zheng Chengran has a lot of experience in research on the growth sector. He is called "the number one player in high -end manufacturing" within the company. His judgment of the industry is very accurate and is regarded as a "talented player". With more labels on Zheng Chengran, his management scale has also risen, and he will soon reach 36 billion yuan, ranking among the star fund managers.

Of course, no matter how high the evaluation is inseparable from the support of performance. Zhijun Technology shows that as of August 23, in the past one year, the annualized return rate was 2.64%, which was better than CSI 300. At the same time, in the past one year, the average annualized income of its partial stock hybrid funds is higher than 85%of similar managers. To sum up, Zheng Chengran's performance is indeed remarkable.

The difference in investment methodology is attributed to the differences in cognition, while Zheng Chengran's investment method comes from his researcher experience.

In many years of manufacturing research and practice, Zheng Chengran has formed a research method to start from the supply side of the industry. That is, through the analysis of the supply and demand pattern, look for the upward point of supply and demand and actively allocate. When the supply and demand relationship is down, the market valuation level is sold, and Davis doubles the income of Davis, which has the fastest period of growth. In the investment framework of Zheng Chengran, he has repeatedly emphasized that he must find "real growth stocks" instead of the theme and concept of speculation.

At the same time, Zheng Chengran also said that we must earn money in the growth industry. Therefore, for cyclical growth varieties, his strategy will not hold it for a long time, mainly the earnings of the fastest growing cycle growth.

The implementation of the investment practice in a combination, preference growth style has become the keyword of its industry configuration. Zheng Chengran dares to be overwhelming about the section he is optimistic, and the industry concentration is high. However, it is particularly worth mentioning that Zheng Chengran's judgment of the industry is more accurate and the winning rate is relatively high. For example, he judged investment opportunities in the photovoltaic industry in early 2019; seized investment opportunities in the electric vehicle sector at the end of 2019; and seized investment opportunities in the military, photovoltaic, refining and other sectors since the second half of 2020.

Specific to the stock selection, Zheng Chengran biased towards top -down stocks. From the perspective industry dimension, in accordance with the framework of supply and demand, it is found to find industrial investment opportunities that have changed drastically. Pay attention to the research and accumulation of the industry's supply side, discover the changes in the prosperity of the industry and the change of pattern, and look forward to judging the inflection point.

As Zheng Chengran said, "I want to control investment risks through winning rates. Starting from the dimension of the industry in the middle of the industry, we will only heavy positions under the condition of high certainty. Differential means to do it. The heavy stocks with heavy allocation are all leaders. It has space and competitiveness for a long time. "

It can be seen from the long -term tracking of its positions. As of now, Zheng Chengran's investment style of investment targets on behalf of the product is changing, the shareholding concentration is high, and the holding style has grown a large market, and the small and medium -sized disk rarely lay out.

According to the statistics of Zheng Chengran's representative products in the second quarter of 2022, the average holding cycle of the top ten heavy stocks is 3.2 quarters, the shareholding cycle is short, the turnover rate is relatively high, and the longest time for heavy positions has continued to heavy positions 6 continuously 6 consecutive positions 6 6 times. This quarter.

According to the latest views released by the Guangfa Fund's public account, Zheng Chengran believes that in terms of inflation, the market's concerns about the rise in upstream resource product prices gradually faded over time. After a period of time, when the price of commodity prices appear down, it may bring midstream profits. In terms of liquidity, from the mid -term perspective, the US economy will also face downward pressure, and the fundamentals do not support interest rates to continue to rise. Therefore, in the future, concerns about liquidity are also expected to gradually alleviate.

Looking at stocks for a long time is a heavy machine, and the long -term factors that determine the rise and fall of the stock are the profit of the company and the expectations of future profit. Regarding the growth sector, Zheng Chengran said that he still maintains optimism. Because the fundamentals are relatively good, and the future growth path has a high clarity, it is more optimistic about the future space of growth stocks.

Specific in the industry, Zheng Chengran said that he would pay attention to the photovoltaic midstream (including components, distributed) and electric vehicles. On the one hand, global photovoltaic installation demand is still strong, and Europe, China, the United States, Southeast Asia, South America and other places show a comprehensive flowering trend. On the other hand, the price of upstream silicon material has risen five times from early last year to now, but the midstream manufacturing shows a strong profit toughness.

From the perspective of economic common sense, the phenomenon of huge profits in any industry is unsustainable. After the price of silicon material declines, it is expected to bring the profit repair of the middle and lower reaches of manufacturing.

Cinda Austrian Fund: Li Shuyan

Talking about the Cinda Australia Fund Company, everyone seems more likely to be attracted by the aura of its "growth stock investment expert". In recent years, the growth of the growth track mainly based on new energy is flourishing, and a group of outstanding growth style fund managers have emerged under the Austrian Australia Fund.

In fact, in addition to the investment in stocks, the Cinda Australia Fund also achieved "multi -bloom". For example, the cycle industry investment led by Li Shuyan, known as the "hexagonal warrior", has also achieved outstanding performance.

In fact, although Li Shuyan's current management fund has only two years, it is not a new person in the field of public funds. He graduated from Master of Finance at Peking University in 2012 and has been an industry researcher at the Boshi Fund and Yongying Fund. In May 2015, he joined Cinda Australia and Asia. He has served as an industry researcher and assistant fund manager. It has been 10 years before and after.

Looking back at Li Shuyan's management performance, the performance has indeed outstanding performance in the past two years. According to Zhijun Technology, as of August 23, Li Shuyan's yield in the past year was 12.6%, which was better than CSI 300. At the same time, in the past one year, the average annualized income of its partial stock hybrid funds is higher than 91%of similar managers, with a maximum retracement of 33.46%. It can be seen that Li Shuyan's ability to obtain is indeed strong.

By disassembling Li Shuyan's investment framework, he can find that his investment is combined with top -down and bottom -up, and he does not deliberately pursue track investment or regains a certain industry. The overall position is relatively balanced.

In the recent interview with the China Fund, when talking about investment methodology, Li Shuyan said that due to the large natural fluctuations such as the profit, valuation, and stock price of cyclical stocks, multiple dimensions must be considered for the screening of cyclical stocks. First of all, at the macro level, the macroeconomic economy must be judged from top to bottom, including domestic and international policies and macroeconomic directions. These judgments will be used as input variables when he studies the industry.

As the leader of the Investment Department, Li Shuyan also talked about a basic requirement of Cinda Australia and Asia on fund managers. It is to adhere to the ability of the fund manager in the first three or five years of the fund manager. After three to five years, the research industry has proved that it has gradually expanded the scope of ability.

It was found that Li Shuyan's position has never been held in a single track, and the style can be switched freely. Behind this is Li Shuyan's deep understanding of the industry's cycle attributes in the past ten years. According to the industry's nature, he divides the entire industry into different cycles, such as cycles, inverse cycles, and independent cycles. Under different market styles, industries that match different cycles of attributes can be adapted in the market style.

Taking representative products as an example, according to the fund regular reports, the distribution of heavy warehouse industries is mainly high in the average ratio of basic chemical, machinery, and national defense military workers, with 30.51%, 16.92%, and 10.12%, respectively. The proportion of light industry manufacturing, machinery, and non -ferrous metals is relatively high. This is also closely related to Li Shuyan's field of attack during the researcher.

At the individual stock level, we must judge the industry's prosperity and company valuation from the bottom up. Li Shuyan follows the unique QGV stock selection system in Cinda Australia and Asia, and is also an important basis for his bottom -up. "Q" is quality, "G" is growing, and "V" is valuation.

In an interview with the fund, Li Shuyan said that good stocks need to meet three standards. First of all, the company's texture is first, and it is also the core competitiveness of the company. Good business, good pattern, good management, good management to make long -term good companies, this is the key to obtain excess returns.

Secondly, the company's growth determines its profitable ceiling. At the same time, the company's valuation is established. With a stable investment style, he values ​​the two dimensions of Growth and Value, looking for small industries with better prosperity in the cycle large industry from top to bottom, and then combined with valuation to make investment. In terms of buying and selling operations, Li Shuyan will also comprehensively consider the two dimensions of the industry's prosperity and the company's valuation, and strive to balance the combination fluctuations.

According to the positioning data, it can be seen that Li Shuyan did have a combination of knowledge and action, and did not blindly follow the hotspots, and dug the company whether the company had core competitiveness. Even in the first quarter of last year, despite the poor performance of the automotive industry, it was rare that its fund was rare in about 10%of its positions and configured a certain stock in the automotive industry. Looking forward to the market outlook, Li Shuyan is more active. He judges that economic growth will be stronger than market expectations. Many industries are also at a historical low. The overall trend is optimistic about the future trend of the rights market.

Regarding the market adjustment in July, Li Shuyan bluntly stated that "since the rebound of 2863 points, the market has reinstated in May and June to regain points due to the impact of the epidemic. In July, the market was adjusted and differentiated to amend the expected difference during the early rebound.

Li Shuyan judged that the current market is expected to turn to be cautious and optimistic, and there are still differences in many aspects. But overall, the current policy is good, the fundamentals are expected to improve, and the space for adjustment is relatively limited.

"I am more optimistic about the market, mainly based on two aspects. First, the current core sectors of the entire Chinese economy, such as manufacturing and consumer industries, are not too bad. Although export data is weakened Because there are some structural manufacturing industries in China that are strong, the toughness of the entire export continues to surpass expectations. The market expectations from the excessive optimism at the end of June to the end of July and early August. The process of. "He further stated that real estate benefits from policy loose, and furniture benefits from consumption rebound. In the short -term, the industry's prosperity may usher in the upward trend.

Looking forward to the future, Li Shuyan said that he continued to uphold confidence in the domestic market, optimistic about the two main lines driven by fixation and stable growth policies after the epidemic. In particular, in terms of advanced manufacturing, at present, the needs of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and wind power industries continue to exceed expectations. Under the influence of supply and demand relationships, the periodic prosperity continues to rise.

Cathay Fund: Wang Yang

As the manager of the Cathay Pacific Fund Middle -generation Fund, Wang Yang is also one of the earliest funds in the market that studies and invested in new energy vehicles. Because it has many years of research and investment accumulation in advanced manufacturing and cycles, it has made its stock selection capacity more prominent.

The career of Wang Yang's career is also very rich. Wang Yang worked at the Ping An Asset Management Co., Ltd. from May 2011 to July 2018. He successively served as researchers, assistant investment managers, and investment managers. During the period, the researcher had covered the cycle, traditional energy, new energy and other industries, and joined the Cathay Fund in July 2018, and since November 2018, he has been managing his first fund.

It is worth mentioning that Wang Yang has done credit debt research for many years in the early days of his career, so that he pays attention to the growth of enterprises while paying attention to the control of risks.

However, measuring a fund manager must use data to speak. Zhijun Technology shows that as of August 23, Wang Yang has been in the past three years, with an annualized return rate of 46.3%, which is better than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At the same time, the average annualized income of stock -type funds managed in the past three years is higher than 95%of similar managers. It can be seen that Wang Yang's long -term performance has good performance, which is also closely related to the timely defense of the time to grasp the timing of the market.

In a public interview, Wang Yang summarized his investment philosophy as: "Adhere to industrial research, use a long -term perspective to pay attention to the company's competitive pattern and future profitability, pay attention to the international/domestic competition pattern, and see entrepreneurs Spirit."

In terms of investment strategy, it is obviously selecting individual stocks from bottom to top. It uses financial indicators such as ROIC, ROE, dividend rates and other financial indicators to screen listed companies with strong profitability, forming a stock alternative pool with profitability.

At the same time, Wang Yang specifically analyzed his stock selection method in the recent Cathay Fund's strategy meeting. He said that through value assessment and analysis, the selection of value was underestimated listed companies and formed an optimized stock pool. Value evaluation analysis mainly adopts a professional valuation model, rationally use valuation indicators, and selects companies with underestimated value.

Specific methods include the P/E ratio Law, Municipal Net ratio Law, PEG, EV/EBITDA, and Dividend Discount Models. They are flexibly used according to the characteristics of different industries and market characteristics.

If Wang Yang's specific operation is in the position, you can find that Wang Yang has maintained a high position for a long time, and almost all of the equity warehouses are more than 90%. And the shareholding concentration is high. Taking its representative fund as an example, the top ten shareholding accounts for about 69%per year, and only reduced its shareholding concentration in the first half of 2019.

Specifically, Wang Yang has a long -term high -end high -end manufacturing theme industry, and has a certain switching ability between the sub -industry in the theme industry. Since his tenure, he has held electricity equipment and new energy, electronics, home appliances, machinery and other manufacturing industries every quarter. In the non -theme industry, it has participated in the rise in light industrial manufacturing and basic chemicals in the non -theme industry. Such configuration is also closely related to his previous researcher experience and the field he is good at.

Looking forward to the second half of this year, Wang Yang believes that in the second quarter of 2022, the global industrial chain caused a negative impact on the supply side and market demand side, especially for the rise in the domestic economy. Overseas conflicts are still continuing, so that the price of large raw materials continues to operate high, causing the cost of the middle and lower reaches of the economy. Overseas rate hike expectations are expected to be maintained, but the overall liquidity in China remains loose, and the overall liquidity is expected to improve. In terms of fund operation, Wang Yang said that he would actively find a segmented industry and leading company with a leading advantage in the medium and long -term long -term, and select configuration when valuation is at a relatively low history. At the same time, focusing on the "new opportunity" stage of transformation in China, focusing on the selection of high -quality companies in new manufacturing and new technology industries for allocation. Taken together, the leading company in the industry is used as an important direction for research and investment, and actively find new investment opportunities.

Risk reminder: The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious. Fund's past performance does not indicate its future performance. Fund research and analysis do not constitute investment consulting or consulting services, nor does it constitute any substantial investment suggestions or commitments to readers or investors. Please read the "Fund Contract", "Recruitment Manual" and related announcements carefully.

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