Daoda Investment Notes: New rules of convertible bonds are good for short -term and need to be cautious

Last week, A shares continued independence. In contrast, overseas markets were nicknamed reverse indicators by shareholders. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index step by step, and successfully stood 3300 points. However, after the key point of the market, there was a significant difference. According to the understanding of Da Ge, the signs of the rebound near the end of the end began to appear.

Is it possible to see the direction of the wrong market? At present, what strategies should be used to deal with? Last Friday, the commodity market plummeted and influenced the geometry on A shares? How to interpret the convertible bond transaction? Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topic of everyone's concern.

Dr. Niu: Hello Da! After the SSE Index hit a new high in recent trading days, you have begun to be cautious. Can you explain the reasons in detail? If the rebound is nearing the end, how to deal with it?

Daida: From the middle and long term, I must have confidence in the A -share market. The current caution is mainly short -term, or more precisely it is the next one or two weeks.

Last week, the fluctuations in the A -share market were significantly intensified. The volume of the two cities was enlarged. In the good aspect, it was a steady stream of power to buy. From another perspective, the chips were loose. We were people sitting in the sedan seeds before. Now the people of the sedan seeds are increasing. How much is the funds of the sedan seedlings in the back? no one knows. Once the person who lifts the sedan is insufficient, it is short -term risk.

From the perspective of the trend structure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the index tried to play room last Wednesday, but it was still pulled back to the interval of the sideways of the index last week. Essence From the perspective of the transaction level, if you can stop falling at 3,200 points near 3200, it is an opportunity, and the cost performance is very high. For the entire disk, this rapid exploration is likely to be a general decline.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index can completely resolve the risk here, that is, starting a new round of horizontal shock at the current position, the shock range is 3262 points ~ 3358 points, and the sideways shakes the time. After that, the market will rise upwards. The probability of breakthroughs will be high.

At present, neither of the above situations appeared. My strategy is to keep the existing positions and see more. Except for the opportunity to trading, this position is not easily increased.

Dr. Niu: Affected by the addition of crude oil in the US and OPEC member states, international oil prices plummeted last Friday night. Will the related resources of A shares fall sharply? Are there any opportunities in other sectors of A shares?

Daida: Recently, the double kills of valuation and performance composition make US stocks very fragile. The Fed's interest rate hike action gave US stocks a heavy punch.

For the domestic market, the decline in energy prices must be negative for A shares related resources, and the coal and oil and gas mining sector will inevitably be affected and fall. In addition, hydrogen energy that is closely related to coal is inevitable. However, this also means opportunities. You can pay attention to the industries that are more powerful in raw material prices and various types of ultra -declined white horses.

As for other opportunities, from the perspective of the sector index, in the direction of the short -term prosperity track, due to the high position of Jitai shares and Zhejiang Shibao, the possibility of differentiation caused by differentiation and the possibility of new energy vehicles. Lithium, military industry, etc. also have the kinetic energy of the upper rushing, as well as the opportunity to make up. In terms of mid -line, other sections with relatively small increases in the near future have more opportunities, such as electricity, consumption, medicine, agriculture, etc. Since my point of view of the market is to look at the adjustment, the mid -line opportunities need to face the test of index adjustment, and then talk about the opportunity.

Comprehensive characteristics of the rebound in this round of market, I think it is still guiding about the next stock selection ideas. Since rebounding on April 27, more than 40 stocks have doubled the market, and there are 100 stocks with an increase of more than 80%.

From the perspective of the sector, the upstream materials of the entire vehicle, the integrated die -casting, the photovoltaic and lithium battery, the photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment, the auto parts, etc. From the perspective of performance, except for individual demon stocks, most of them are individual stocks that have increased significantly in the first quarter. Therefore, in the subsequent stock selection process, we must follow the dual verification of logic plus performance; in addition, combine our own grasped trend structure, the opportunity is greater.

Dr. Niu: The convertible bond transaction ushered in a strong supervision. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange released a new regulations on Friday night. The admission requirements of annual transaction experience+100,000 yuan assets ". Is this sharp?

Daida: This new regulation can be regarded as an attitude of the regulatory authorities. I think the hype is okay, but it must be moderate.

The convertible bond transaction is tightened. This is the second time. There was no melting mechanism before, and later increased. Now it has increased by 20%. Funding, increasing restrictions, and difficulty in doing whatever funds.

The latest policies are empty for convertible bonds, the threshold is raised, the threshold has reduced liquidity, and the difficulty of speculation is increasing. It is foreseeable that the next convertible bond market is probably not good. Of course, "T+0" is still retained, which is not a devastating blow.

For the stock market, the news may be profitable. After all, the convertible bond market is too popular, which will cause the stock market funds to be diverted. The convertible bonds cool down, and the funds must flow out. Compared with the stock market, this part of funds have become incremental funds. In the short term, it may not be good for brokerage stocks.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.Daily Economic News

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